Conner Mantz is FIT!

I had Clayton ahead of him after seeing the trials. The more I looked at the Paris course though, this plays went into Mantz’s strengths. A hillier course does better for scrappier/cross country type runners. I hope this race is gruesome because it will only help Mantz. Think how Molly Seidel medaled

12M@4:46/M is 1:02:28 half marathon pace, 2:05:56 MP. That is two minutes faster than his marathon pr and only 90s slower than his half marathon pr. So, if it were at sea level it would be pretty close to a half marathon time trial and well ahead of marathon pace. But it was at 4500 feet. 12M@4:46/M (57:12) at 4500 feet converts to 54:59 at sea level. That is 4:35/M, roughly American record pace. So, it was essentially a half marathon time trial at faster than pr pace for 12/13.1 of the way. He's in good shape but it's a good thing he has time to recover because this kind of hero workout often leaves you flat for the race.

If I've learned anything from the Keeping Up with the Mormons videos Clayton Young is posting on youtube, no one is a bigger workout hero that Mantz (and few people are more insufferable, clout gobblins than Linkletter)

I am gonna get hated on but 20th actually is pretty bad considering the historically strong African nations are capped at 3 entries. That’s the reason people like Meb can get silver — lots of people blow up in any given marathon, sometimes 2-3 from the same country.

20th would Mantz is not only losing to 6-9 Kenyan, Ethiopian, Ugandan & other African stars, which we already knew were better than him, but 10ish European, Asian, South American, and North American people. Mantz should have realistic hope of being in the top 5-6 non ETH/KEN/UGA athletes. That would put him in the 6-12/13 range on a decent day, like Ritz/Hall were able to do.

Running in Park City@7k ft doesn't accumulate you for the heat and humidity. Gee I wonder why we see in every YouTube, Kenyans wearing tights and wind breakers in 80 degree heat.

Clayton Young for bronze. Called it immediately after the trials. Bekele for the win. Kipchoge 9th. One can dream.

I can confirm this rumor.

I don’t disagree with your last point about leaving races in workouts, which is one of my biggest fears/criticisms about Mantz, along with too little recovery after actual marathons. But the conversion you used is just ludicrous. 4500’, while deserving a conversion, isn’t nearly as hindering as 6000’+. It deserves about a 4-5 sec per mile conversion, tops. Still a solid run.

I truly hope you don’t vote or operate heavy machinery.

That's right. I could live at altitude but I figure it's cheaper to do all my summer training at noon. while wearing a trash bag son. to be like the kenyans you feel me.

The tougher and more mental the race, which Paris will be, the more I favor the BYU duo to place well. I wouldn't be surprised to see them both in serious contention for medal spots as late as Mile 23-24. They are smart with a good coach and complement each other's training and racing strengths/weaknesses well. If they can find a way to work together on race day, they will both be tough to beat.

According to Dr. Vigil Hall ran 4:39 avg for 17 miles prior to London his 2:06) and Meb were doing the same pace for 18 miles at 8000 ft in Mammoth during their preps

Still solid work.

Both Mantz and Young are fine runners. I think Mantz goes out hard and bonks. Young moves through the field and will finish ahead of him.

Mantz ran 28:00.90 on a warm day at the U.S Olympic Trials. He is fit.

Training in airid, relatively cool weather might not be the best preparation for hot and humid Paris?

Those that are making predictions have not been on the course or familiar with the weather in Paris in August.

The winning time will be 2:09:30.

This is a course that does not suit someone that wants to lead or be part of knocking heads with the leaders. Mantz’s strengths are a weakness on this course.

2:15:25

So he's fit but is it god's plan that he do well? Cos if not all that training won't matter.

I'm not 100% disagreeing, but aren't Mantz and Young a lot farther from the front of the race than Ritz and (especially) Hall were? Their times are similar, but marathon times have improved greatly in the past decade, and 2:07 now is about as competitive as 2:10 used to be. Mantz and Young haven't racked up a bunch of top-5 WMMs like Hall did either (although, to be fair, most of them came after Hall's first Olympics).

We so often get spoilt in that our marathoners vastly outperform expectations at the Olympics. Sure, an aging Meb can get 4th. Sure, Jared Ward gets 6th. Sure, Molly Seidel of all people gets the bronze medal. There are some good reasons for this, but it's hardly guaranteed.

So it's worth mentioning that on paper Mantz and Young barely made the OQT and shouldn't be anywhere near the top 10, with an eye to the caveat that US Olympic marathoners do often vastly outperform their on-paper metrics. While this overperformance could happen again, it's also not crazy to suggest that maybe Mantz and Young are who they are and will finish appropriately outside the top 30.