Nur is criminally low in your post. I have him top 3. Kincaid has not raced since the 10. That is concerning to me. Wolfe beat Nico at NCAAs and is clearly on one this year but I wouldn’t be surprised if Nico gets him at the trials. Beadlescomb is a dark horse and also criminally low in your list IMO. He has the standard and has a good kick.
Sorry to have committed so many crimes! Coming into this year I was really big on Nur -- I thought he had a great chance of winning the Trials -- but I've been unimpressed by his outdoor season. He was only 14th at The TEN in 27:17. And I was dismayed by how poorly he ran in the NY Grand Prix last week. Here are the results of that race:
1. Jake WIGHTMAN 11 JUL 1994 GBR 3:34.01 2. Eric HOLT 12 MAY 1995 USA 3:34.05 3. Hobbs KESSLER 15 MAR 2003 USA 3:34.41 4. Vincent CIATTEI 21 JAN 1995 USA 3:34.62 5. Grant FISHER 22 APR 1997 USA 3:34.90 6. Eduardo HERRERA 23 SEP 1997 MEX 3:35.29 7. Luke MCCANN 12 MAR 1998 IRL 3:35.51 8. Jesse HUNT 28 JUL 1998 AUS 3:36.17 9. Morgan BEADLESCOMB 01 JUN 1998 USA 3:36.43 10. Abdihamid NUR 14 OCT 1997 USA 3:38.49 11. Benjamin FLANAGAN 11 JAN 1995 CAN 3:39.38 12. Mason FERLIC 05 AUG 1993 USA 3:40.23
With his leg speed, Nur should be ahead of Fisher (let alone guys like Herrera, McCann and Hunt whom I've never heard of) in a 1500.
I share your concerns about Kincaid not racing recently, but he seems to always comes through in big races like this.
Nur's leg speed? Just because he has a kick doesn't mean he has leg speed. Nothing he has ever done besides kicking to win USAs last year suggests he has any leg speed. He consistently lost to his NAU teammates in college over 1500/mile. He has only run under 3:38 twice in his career, one of them being this season. Him beating Fisher in a somewhat tactical 1500 would have been a miracle (Fisher has run under 3:38 six times, and under 3:35 twice).
Nur has run PRs at 1500, 5k, and 10K this year, and destroyed Drew, Muhumed, Liking, Hacker, and Jacobs over 5K in LA. He's clearly in similar or better form than last season. Whether that will be good enough to beat Teare, Fisher, Young, Wolfe, Hocker, Nuguse, Kincaid...who knows. But it would be insane to be "unimpressed" by his 2024 results.
I do think its possible that Nico is all in on the 10 and using the 5 as a backup in case he does not make the team - If Nico is top 3 in the 10 and going to Paris I think he does not run the 5.
I agree with the poster who commented about Wolfe. Picture just those two guys together at 400m to go. Absolutely no way Hunter is out kicking him, much less the sub 13 guys if it's a last lap sprint
You are kidding right? This is his best year but he has no chance of top 3 in either race. Even if he was top 3 he doesn't have the standard or world ranking so that leaves him off the team
I think his best chance at top 3 is actually the 10K, but he doesn't have the standard and is currently unranked. I'm not sure where he'll be ranked if he places top 3, but I would guess he's going to have to run a fast time if he wants a shot at getting in on ranking. His 5K he was destroyed by Nur on the last lap and he lost to Teare on the roads, which doesn't look great considering they are two of his main rivals to make the team.
Well it looks like this aged well. Sad he couldn't quite do it but he wouldn't have gotten in anyway. Quite the effort from him though, hopefully he shows up well in the 5K too.
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