Given the Bowerman mile result, from how far out does Jakob start the squeeze in the Olympic final?…
So if you are Jakob (assuming you are feeling good at that moment), how far out do you start the long drive for home in the Olympic final?
So in short - I think it needs to be from 1100 out at the latest.
But yet, in Budapest, Jakob took the lead from 1000m out; Kerr not only caught him, but came up around his shoulder in the final turn, rolled him up like a cigar, and smoked him!
You all must take into account racing is mainly a psychological test. Kerr wasn’t expected to win(underdog) in 2023. He sat back, made a move to the front, then with 200-220m to go surged to the lead and never looked back.
Kerr is clearly not the underdog anymore. He knows he can win so there’s an expectation of himself to do so, he feels there still “something to prove”. And this dictated his tactics at Pre. He raced differently taking the lead way earlier and pushed all the way to the line. This worked because he is super fit. The fittest guy wins most of the time right?(think lagat at USA championships, didn’t matter how the race played out)
The fittest athlete eventually takes the lead. But if Kerr and Ingebrigtsen are both super fit, who wins? I think psychology will come into play big time. Kerr still feels there’s something to prove, if I’m Jakob I let him push that pace from 600m out or whatever and I sit on him, a role reversal from 2023. However, Jakub needs to be CLOSE enough to make that potent move at 250 and take the lead from Kerr and never look back. Jakub comes off as a stubborn person so he may just feel his old way is the right way but then it puts the pressure back on him.
if he can get past his ego, and say ok Kerr you’re better then prove it. He would sit on Kerr and put that pressure on him. I know that athletes evolve and change but I remember Kerr in the NCAA was very good kicker but inconsistent in fast races, or when the pressure was put on him there were better chances of him cracking. Jakub definitely needs to get sharper in the coming weeks, I believe he is racing soon so we should see how he is rounding into form.
if kerr does what he did Saturday, Jakob will tail him. But don't expect that to happen. Anything and everything is on the table for how this race will go.
I wrote in another thread that it is possible we have a Bowerman Mile repeat and Jakob can't get around (again) and even gets passed down the stretch as he has the "crap, I'm not going to win" moment. We should not be surprised if he is not in the top two places.
To avoid that, I think he really has to consider a long lead and ramp up (the squeeze), and I think it could come as early as 700 to go.
This post was edited 40 seconds after it was posted.
I wrote in another thread that it is possible we have a Bowerman Mile repeat and Jakob can't get around (again) and even gets passed down the stretch as he has the "crap, I'm not going to win" moment. We should not be surprised if he is not in the top two places.
To avoid that, I think he really has to consider a long lead and ramp up (the squeeze), and I think it could come as early as 700 to go.
I agree. I think Jakob has to be ready to turn the screws from 700 to go, to run the finish off the other guys. Have a look at how Elliot won at Rome '60, with a long drive for home (and Elliott was relatively faster than Jakob, being able to win over 800 in his era). That's how Jakob has to be prepared to do it.
if kerr does what he did Saturday, Jakob will tail him. But don't expect that to happen. Anything and everything is on the table for how this race will go.
Are you referring to Paris? Of course he won’t tail him and a slow paced race is definitely not on the table.
You all must take into account racing is mainly a psychological test. Kerr wasn’t expected to win(underdog) in 2023. He sat back, made a move to the front, then with 200-220m to go surged to the lead and never looked back.
Kerr is clearly not the underdog anymore. He knows he can win so there’s an expectation of himself to do so, he feels there still “something to prove”. And this dictated his tactics at Pre. He raced differently taking the lead way earlier and pushed all the way to the line. This worked because he is super fit. The fittest guy wins most of the time right?(think lagat at USA championships, didn’t matter how the race played out)
The fittest athlete eventually takes the lead. But if Kerr and Ingebrigtsen are both super fit, who wins? I think psychology will come into play big time. Kerr still feels there’s something to prove, if I’m Jakob I let him push that pace from 600m out or whatever and I sit on him, a role reversal from 2023. However, Jakub needs to be CLOSE enough to make that potent move at 250 and take the lead from Kerr and never look back. Jakub comes off as a stubborn person so he may just feel his old way is the right way but then it puts the pressure back on him.
if he can get past his ego, and say ok Kerr you’re better then prove it. He would sit on Kerr and put that pressure on him. I know that athletes evolve and change but I remember Kerr in the NCAA was very good kicker but inconsistent in fast races, or when the pressure was put on him there were better chances of him cracking. Jakub definitely needs to get sharper in the coming weeks, I believe he is racing soon so we should see how he is rounding into form.
10/10 post. Further, Ingebrigtsen has closed sub 53 on last 400 meters (although in the "slow" 5000m WC), so the competitors needs to bring their A-game. On thing is to deliver as underdog, being the top contender going into the WC is something completely else.
Given the Bowerman mile result, from how far out does Jakob start the squeeze in the Olympic final?
Prior to Bowerman, I was thinking Jakob should try from about 600 out to see if that was enough as 1000 was just too far against someone who can almost match your top fitness.
Turns out he didn't have to as Kerr did it for him.
In some ways 600 turned out to be just about right (Kerr's kick gone), but then in other ways (Kerr winning) it didn't.
So if you are Jakob (assuming you are feeling good at that moment), how far out do you start the long drive for home in the Olympic final?
Had this convo with one of my best friends the other day talking about peak Morceli (93-95) vs peak El G (97-99). Morceli was absolutely unbeatable if it came down to the final 500m - nobody had the ability to blow up fields from 1100-1400m like he did - a lot of those 50.X/51.X laps he closed out championships with he was just cruising in the final 100.
El G of course famously won an Olympics with a 1.46.8 final 800m - and that wasn't even in his prime. Seville was probably the signature win of his career - 3.27.65 just blowing the doors off everyone - yes he had some help in the opening laps from Kaouch (1.52.15) but nobody was beating him that day, that was maybe the easiest sub 3.28 in history.
So the question was exactly this - at what point did El G have to put the squeeze on Morceli to blunt that final 400m assault. For me it was that critical stretch between 700 and 900m (800-600 to go) and the earlier the better - if he left it any later Morceli would have the wheels to beat him.
For Jakob he doesn't even have the speed of El G (but has superior endurance) - I think that Jakob can survive a slightly off-tempo opening 400 (say 57/58) but from that point on it needs to be a low 1.50 next 800m and a close. Here is what I think is the key to beating Kerr - you can't let him regather during a race. He has this awesome ability to almost catch his breath running 56.5-57.0 pace even off a quick. If you let him have even a 300m stretch like that he will make you pay in the final stages. One J.I turns the screws he just needs to be good enough to never let off - he needs to keep Josh right at or just above his threshold.
So in short - I think it needs to be from 1100 out at the latest.
Fantastic analysis. I agree and I think Jakob has been treating these recent championship races poorly—he knows he needs to run an honest pace and turn it into a fitness test, but always starts by hammering the first two laps and expecting to drop the field like he does on the circuit, but without rabbits or wavelights. Of course this is impossible and it leads to the 2nd or 3rd lap being slow and giving a chance for the kickers to reattach themselves.
As you said, the first lap can be relatively slow. But with ~1k to go is when he needs to start the squeeze, and it can’t let up until the very end. Let the first lap be the one where the pace lags, and from then on, don’t give the kickers an inch. He’s capable of running 58-1:50. Then closing the 300 in ~40 would seal the deal and the legs would be burned off Kerr. Easier said than done of course and probably very painful but it’s a lot easier to control than opening in 55.x high like he did in Budapest.
Kerr and Nuguse also want a fast race to secure top 3. They might take the lead if the pace is slow. Jakob isn't the guy behind whom everybody sits anymore.
If nobody wants to lead, then yes, Jakob need to start from 600m to go.
I feel like 600m to go is not enough. How fast is J.I running that final 600 off a solid (57/58) pace - 79.5-80.0 seconds? Because whatever that is I think Josh Kerr has to ability to better it. It has to be much further out than 600m.
Had this convo with one of my best friends the other day talking about peak Morceli (93-95) vs peak El G (97-99). Morceli was absolutely unbeatable if it came down to the final 500m - nobody had the ability to blow up fields from 1100-1400m like he did - a lot of those 50.X/51.X laps he closed out championships with he was just cruising in the final 100.
El G of course famously won an Olympics with a 1.46.8 final 800m - and that wasn't even in his prime. Seville was probably the signature win of his career - 3.27.65 just blowing the doors off everyone - yes he had some help in the opening laps from Kaouch (1.52.15) but nobody was beating him that day, that was maybe the easiest sub 3.28 in history.
So the question was exactly this - at what point did El G have to put the squeeze on Morceli to blunt that final 400m assault. For me it was that critical stretch between 700 and 900m (800-600 to go) and the earlier the better - if he left it any later Morceli would have the wheels to beat him.
For Jakob he doesn't even have the speed of El G (but has superior endurance) - I think that Jakob can survive a slightly off-tempo opening 400 (say 57/58) but from that point on it needs to be a low 1.50 next 800m and a close. Here is what I think is the key to beating Kerr - you can't let him regather during a race. He has this awesome ability to almost catch his breath running 56.5-57.0 pace even off a quick. If you let him have even a 300m stretch like that he will make you pay in the final stages. One J.I turns the screws he just needs to be good enough to never let off - he needs to keep Josh right at or just above his threshold.
So in short - I think it needs to be from 1100 out at the latest.
Fantastic analysis. I agree and I think Jakob has been treating these recent championship races poorly—he knows he needs to run an honest pace and turn it into a fitness test, but always starts by hammering the first two laps and expecting to drop the field like he does on the circuit, but without rabbits or wavelights. Of course this is impossible and it leads to the 2nd or 3rd lap being slow and giving a chance for the kickers to reattach themselves.
As you said, the first lap can be relatively slow. But with ~1k to go is when he needs to start the squeeze, and it can’t let up until the very end. Let the first lap be the one where the pace lags, and from then on, don’t give the kickers an inch. He’s capable of running 58-1:50. Then closing the 300 in ~40 would seal the deal and the legs would be burned off Kerr. Easier said than done of course and probably very painful but it’s a lot easier to control than opening in 55.x high like he did in Budapest.
.”He knows he needs to run an honest pace”
Holy sh*t. Ingebrigtsen has about 1000 times more experience than you in racing the 1500m, and he knows exact what he should do.
I agree it's very psychological. The problem for Jakob is that his mind is already pre-loaded with excuses. He truly believes he is the best (possibly of all time), and therefore if he loses, it is due (in his mind) to some event outside his control.
Jakob may win, but he is clearly not prepared to make his own destiny; if the going gets tough, I expect he will fold, and we'll hear the same excuses from him as we have over the last year and a half.
Potato Tim 2019 World Championship 1500.... that is the recipe to follow. Go out really fast - so fast everyone hesitates to go with you. And then keep going. Yes, its Jacob, and they might not let him, but why did they let Tim that year? Tim was the favorite and just ran away from (nearly) everyone before the first 400m was finished.
But yet, in Budapest, Jakob took the lead from 1000m out; Kerr not only caught him, but came up around his shoulder in the final turn, rolled him up like a cigar, and smoked him!
Didn't read my post did you. Or just wanted to make a point by omitting the important stuff. No problem - happens all the time.
First of all I said it was a drive from 1100m out. Secondly I also said that he needed to lift the pace and not drop it (like he did in Budapest) which would allow Kerr to "regather during (the) race" - which is exactly what happened and directly contributed to his defeat.
But cool man, if you think you made a blockbuster point you do you.
Kerr shot his wad at Pre. Wouldn't be surprised if that is his peak for the season. Throw in a peaking at the right time Jakob in Paris after rounds and Kerr has no chance. Prolly won't even medal.
if kerr does what he did Saturday, Jakob will tail him. But don't expect that to happen. Anything and everything is on the table for how this race will go.
Are you referring to Paris? Of course he won’t tail him and a slow paced race is definitely not on the table.
Are you really a distance coach?
if kerr takes charge with 600 to go, and keeps a decent pace, Jakob will stay behind. just like he stayed behind timothy until 100 to go.
It took me some time but here are Jakob's and Kerr's finishing times, and splits (Final 800m, final 400m, final 300m, final 200m, and final 100m) from all the major championships 2019-2023:
Doha 2019
Jakob 4th 3:31.70 (1:52.56, 54.55, 40.66, 27.04, 13.61)
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