I am a mediocre runner (1:30 half in my mid 30’s) and hit 4+ when I trained somewhat regularly on the bike and 3 is like the lowest level that someone who actually cycles and is healthy male should achieve. I would imagine any elite runner could hit 3+ with no training and 4 to 5 within 1 to 3 months
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What are you smoking? As was pointed out, there is a lot more than being an "aerobic monster" to be able to get that kind of power output. I would bet that very few elite runners could get to 4-5 w/kg within "1 to 3 months."
Are you the same guy that started a thread here a bit ago claiming to be at 5+ w/kg on his indoor trainer and thinking that you could probably join the pro peloton? Get a different power meter. Yours is probably broken.
There is a huge difference between 4 to 5 w/kg and joining the pro Peloton, 100%.
However, the former is fairly easy for a fit runner with some baseline speed and strength. As someone above already pointed out the limiting factor isn't going to be aerobic ability but pure power output. If you can run sub 1:50 for the 800 you probably have a decent baseline of power output and will make large gains quickly adapting to cycling (up to a point).
While injured a while ago I biked a bit more seriously and reached a point where I could hang on to most group rides around and drop them on climbs within two months or so. And I wasn't in that great running shape to start with.
World tour pros have FTP numbers well north of 6 watts/kg. Sepp Kuss has a similar build compared to Nico and is one of the best climbers on the planet. That said, it’s improbable that Sepp Kuss could be a sub 13/sub 27 guy. Just as unlikely that Nico could ever do what Sepp does.
World tour pros have FTP numbers well north of 6 watts/kg. Sepp Kuss has a similar build compared to Nico and is one of the best climbers on the planet. That said, it’s improbable that Sepp Kuss could be a sub 13/sub 27 guy. Just as unlikely that Nico could ever do what Sepp does.
Not impossible . Improbable.
I don't think they do. Maybe Pog. 6W/kg is worth 1700-1775 VAM depending on gradient/bike weight etc, and VAM numbers can be extracted from any Strava ride the public can see. The Alp D'Huez record is slightly under 1800 VAM, so ballpark 6.0-6.2 W/kg for less than 40min.
The only example of a high end runner (sub 4 miler pre super shoes) turning into a successful pro cyclist (won a TdF stage, won other tours) is Mike Woods.
It's not as easy to get a correlation as you think.
it's very difficult to be a "high end runner" that is known nationally or internationally and then switch to cycling and go pro because the truth is that cycling is much more tactical and even with a big motor you still have to learn how to read races
anyway the thread wasn't asking about guys going pro, it was whether nico could hit 4 w/kg right?
chad hall is a monster on the bike, in case anyone wants another example of runner turned successful cyclist. he didn't go pro, but he puts out some big numbers in the saddle
He would have an FTP around 5.5 w/kg, Which is like 360 watts at 150 lbs. Since this test is done on a stationary bike (no bike handling or equipment issues) he would have very close to a pro cyclists FTP. I am a top 54 year old cyclist and can do 325 at that weight. He can definitely do 360 on pure fitness and VO2 max. If he is under 150 lbs, then his w/kg goes up to 6.
Nico Young was already #1 in the nation in the 2M as a junior, 8:43. He didn't lose to a high schooler after May 23, 2019. He won 17 straight races after that. He was both Gatorade XC and Track player of the year in 2019-20. (He was also among the 28(!??) valedictorians in his class at NP). At NAU as a true freshman, he placed 4th at xc nationals, something very few Americans have ever done. He set American age records at 5000m several times along the way, before this "almost overnight" transformation.
So based on his 10k his running FTP is around 6.2 Watts/kg (or about what you would expect)
10000/1612.72 = 6.2
Not the exact question that was asked, but just the one I had the answer to.
Interesting comparison. FTP is defined in cycling as max average power over an hour. So maybe his half marathon m/s would be better. Although, it seems that cycling power numbers would be higher because you are constantly in a power generating mode with a circular pedaling motion keeping the power on at all times. I think the alternating foot strike power pushes, the recovering phase, and weight lift in running is far more taxing and harder to keep power up. Your ass, arms and tires handle the weight bearing part of cycling so that your legs are free to generate pure power for an hour!
He would have an FTP around 5.5 w/kg, Which is like 360 watts at 150 lbs. Since this test is done on a stationary bike (no bike handling or equipment issues) he would have very close to a pro cyclists FTP.*I am a top 54 year old cyclist and can do 325 at that weight.* He can definitely do 360 on pure fitness and VO2 max. If he is under 150 lbs, then his w/kg goes up to 6.
Give Nico a year of cycling, you could be right. but the key is that you are a cyclist. This means that you have developed the cycling muscles to be able to tax your cardiovascular system. when you first start biking, your quads fry before you can get the HR up there.
The only example of a high end runner (sub 4 miler pre super shoes) turning into a successful pro cyclist (won a TdF stage, won other tours) is Mike Woods.
It's not as easy to get a correlation as you think.
it's very difficult to be a "high end runner" that is known nationally or internationally and then switch to cycling and go pro because the truth is that cycling is much more tactical and even with a big motor you still have to learn how to read races
anyway the thread wasn't asking about guys going pro, it was whether nico could hit 4 w/kg right?
chad hall is a monster on the bike, in case anyone wants another example of runner turned successful cyclist. he didn't go pro, but he puts out some big numbers in the saddle
This is true, I live near Chad and he is up there in top 10 of pro cyclists on near by Strava segments
Random Thoughts In addition to Mike Woods, some other former d1 runners have had success cycling. Morgan Pearson and Matt Mcelroy were both All Americans in XC and both are FTP > 5w/kg (esp. on 20 min test). Matt Jablonski (ex-Oregon) also wasn't great in college w/ running (solid, but not great), and he went into cycling with a finish in the top 40 at US road race championship; he'd surely be on the high side of 5 w/kg. It also took all these guys at least a couple years to get to that level.
Off-the-cuff Estimation I would guess Nico could do 3 w/kg without a doubt. I would say there's a chance he's at 3.5 w/kg-4 w/kg if he does cross training. If he committed to cycling for a few years, I'd imagine getting to 5 w/kg wouldn't be out of the question. I don't see him committing to cycling full time, so we can't validate this, but it's an interesting question
are from the end of Grand tour Stages, and after many days of racing. A cyclist pro with fresh legs can perform better numbers than that. There are some articles on this topic online, with riders’ data from Strava and the like
y'all have lost your minds if you think nico would be less than 4 w/kg for 20-min on a bike
anyway, nico is a pure runner, it's the twins that have real cycling potential
i'd bet on the twins being 5% either way of 6w/kg for 20' within 1 year of taking to it seriously
If Joe Klecker can’t even break 4 W/kg after almost 75 rides what makes you think Nico of all people can?
Fwiw I was pretty impressed by Klecker's riding. Pearson's workouts were way too hard for him but he was pushing pretty good watts in workouts. Don't want this to turn into a weight thing but I would've thought he would be 4+ for 20min. Nico maybe could do something like that since he weighs very little. Wouldn't happen cold tho.
are from the end of Grand tour Stages, and after many days of racing. A cyclist pro with fresh legs can perform better numbers than that. There are some articles on this topic online, with riders’ data from Strava and the like
Many days of racing yes, but almost no riders can sustain 1750 VAM for an FTP duration.
Here's why I think so... 2004 Alp D'Huez iTT where Lance won in 37:36, and for an elevation gain of 1120m. This is 1120 * 60 / 37.6 = 1787 VAM.
If we assume a 70kg rider, 7kg bike, and 2kg for helmet/shoes/misc, then aero drag and rolling resistance combine for about 62W (taken from average speed of climb using
This brings us to needing 381W to climb at 1787 VAM plus 62W of output that is "lost", for a total of 443W by a 70kg rider = 6.3 W/kg for a bit less duration than what most people consider FTP to represent. While it was stage 16, there was a rest day before stage 15, and I think it's safe to assume that Lance's performance would have been an all-out effort.
As of 2018 there had only been a TOTAL of 18 performances in which the Alp D'Huez was done in 1700 VAM or faster (which requires a time of 39:32):
1 37′ 35″ Marco Pantani 1997 Italy 2* 37′ 36″ Lance Armstrong 2004 United States 3 38′ 00″ Marco Pantani 1994 Italy 4 38′ 01″ Lance Armstrong 2001 United States 5 38′ 04″ Marco Pantani 1995 Italy 6 38′ 23″ Jan Ullrich 1997 Germany 7 38′ 34″ Floyd Landis 2006 United States 8 38′ 35″ Andreas Klöden 2006 Germany 9* 38′ 37″ Jan Ullrich 2004 Germany 10 39′ 02″ Richard Virenque 1997 France 11 39′ 06″ Iban Mayo 2003 Spain 12* 39′ 17″ Andreas Klöden 2004 Germany 13* 39′ 21″ Jose Azevedo 2004 Portugal 14 39′ 22″ Nairo Quintana 2015 Colombia 15 39′ 28″ Miguel Induráin 1995 Spain 16 39′ 28″ Alex Zülle 1995 Switzerland 17 39′ 30″ Bjarne Riis 1995 Denmark 18 39′ 31″ Carlos Sastre 2008 Spain
for a total of 443W by a 70kg rider = 6.3 W/kg for a bit less duration than what most people consider FTP to represent.
Hour record attempts have long been in that range, and FTP numbers in cycling are usually taken at only 20 minutes. 6.3 for 20 mins is around the 75th percentile -
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