I actually agree with the Jakob fanbois on this one, this is something that my HS coach believed El G could have done back in the early 2000s -- his reasoning was that a 3:43 guy could run 4:01s and close in 27 -- I tend to agree. Jakob is the closest thing to an El G type running (an endurance-based runner that is still fast enough to be the best in the world at 1500).
So a perfectly optimized race (impossible) doesn't even have the greatest runner of all time under 12:30? And you think it's not only possible, that it will happen and is not even that fast?
What you're not understanding is that 1. a negative split is the most optimal way to run a 5k, and 2. averaging over 12:30 pace for the last 3k of a race that got out at over 13:00 pace is NOT encouraging when you are trying to break 12:30. 12:34 would be an INCREDIBLE accomplishment, but within the realm of possibility. 12:29 is not happening.
12:30.9 didn't come from a perfectly optimized race, it came from optimized splits. Big difference. 12:30.9 is what 2004 Bekele could have run if he had wavelights and was right on them the whole time. Assuming 12:30.9 is the limit is assuming that 1) Bekele was never in better shape than he was on that day, 2) Bekele would get 0 benefit from supershoes, and 3) Bekele would get 0 benefit from a pacer going further than 2k. I don't believe any of those things, so I think .9s is below the low end of how much it could be improved. Super shoes alone would give him more than .9s.
I think a negative split is the optimal way to run a 5k, but I think it'd be more like 12:39 pace for 3k, then cut down. Not 13:00 pace for 3k then 12:15 pace for 2k. They averaged 12:30 pace for 3k after 13:00 pace in Oslo, but if you think the ideal way to run that was 13:00-12:30-12:00 pace, then you may just not watch enough track to understand.
Honestly, it's boring to say, but the optimal way to run a 5000 is to do a perfect warmup and then run exactly even the whole way through. Since "perfect" and "exactly" are more machine than man, idea is probably go out in 62 and then ever so slightly increase pace until running 59.5s to make up the time.
I didn't say YOU could run 12:30, just that you probably could've run faster if you stopped placing arbitrary limits on what's "too fast".
What do you think Kipchoge meant when he said "No human is limited" all those times? Did he mean "No human is limited unless they're one of the fastest people ever and they're trying to run a lot faster than the WR"?
The people who actually get results agree with me. I'm ok if anonymous LetsRun user #43359 doesn't <3
He meant no human is limited unless organized as a limited liability corporation.
So a perfectly optimized race (impossible) doesn't even have the greatest runner of all time under 12:30? And you think it's not only possible, that it will happen and is not even that fast?
What you're not understanding is that 1. a negative split is the most optimal way to run a 5k, and 2. averaging over 12:30 pace for the last 3k of a race that got out at over 13:00 pace is NOT encouraging when you are trying to break 12:30. 12:34 would be an INCREDIBLE accomplishment, but within the realm of possibility. 12:29 is not happening.
12:30.9 didn't come from a perfectly optimized race, it came from optimized splits. Big difference. 12:30.9 is what 2004 Bekele could have run if he had wavelights and was right on them the whole time. Assuming 12:30.9 is the limit is assuming that 1) Bekele was never in better shape than he was on that day, 2) Bekele would get 0 benefit from supershoes, and 3) Bekele would get 0 benefit from a pacer going further than 2k. I don't believe any of those things, so I think .9s is below the low end of how much it could be improved. Super shoes alone would give him more than .9s.
I think a negative split is the optimal way to run a 5k, but I think it'd be more like 12:39 pace for 3k, then cut down. Not 13:00 pace for 3k then 12:15 pace for 2k. They averaged 12:30 pace for 3k after 13:00 pace in Oslo, but if you think the ideal way to run that was 13:00-12:30-12:00 pace, then you may just not watch enough track to understand.
No doubt. Unfortunately we will never know. But I think Chep and Jakob both have the ABILITY to run 12:30. Whether they ever do it or not I don't know, but they are capable.
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