The world record belongs below 12:30. I said last summer there are 8 guys in the world that should be trying to be the first man sub-12:30. If you plug their splits into stat gangsta from those super fast 5000m races last summer you'll see what I'm talking about. 6.25 seconds in the 5000m is just half a second per lap. They need to learn to think like Billy Mills in the movie running brave.
12:30 is insane. Some runners merely need the OQ of sub 13:05, while others may have to go sub 12:40 for a ticket to Paris (Ethiopia). IIRC the Kenyans have to place top 3 in the national trials and Uganda only has 2 elites and they don't need to worry about selection.
There's enough motivation on the line to give it an honest try. I'm guessing a pace goal for 3k at ~7:40, then the stage is set to duke it out, aka. Kejelcha and Aregawi pushing the pace with the Ugandans in tow. Winning time will be around 12:37 (subject to wind and temperature).
Group 2 will be paced evenly towards 13:05. Almgren finishes strong for a first ever sub 13. The Norwegian sub-elite quartet finish between 13:04-13:40.
Too bad Fisher isn't racing but he has his eyes on the trials and Olympics rightfully so
That is what’s wrong with the USA trials system. Fisher, and the rest of the top US runners, have to focus on making the Olympic team first then hope they haven’t out peaked themselves and be ready to run again five weeks after the fact at the Olympics.
Other runners from other countries who have little to no depth that have made the Olympic standard and are auto qualified by their countries have a far easier road to the Olympics. They can also race DL races etc. without the same concerns about travel, training, and having to be ready on a single day in order to make their county’s team. That is a huge advantage.
Solution for USA is the fastest runner in a given event that has made the Olympic standard the year of the Olympics gets a auto qualifier.
12:30 is insane. Some runners merely need the OQ of sub 13:05, while others may have to go sub 12:40 for a ticket to Paris (Ethiopia). IIRC the Kenyans have to place top 3 in the national trials and Uganda only has 2 elites and they don't need to worry about selection.
There's enough motivation on the line to give it an honest try. I'm guessing a pace goal for 3k at ~7:40, then the stage is set to duke it out, aka. Kejelcha and Aregawi pushing the pace with the Ugandans in tow. Winning time will be around 12:37 (subject to wind and temperature).
Group 2 will be paced evenly towards 13:05. Almgren finishes strong for a first ever sub 13. The Norwegian sub-elite quartet finish between 13:04-13:40.
Going out in 7:40 is way too slow. They would have to bring it home in 4:50 over the last 2000m, to run 12:30. The 4:57 needed to run your 12:37, has only happened off of about 8:00 pace.
12:30 is fast, but I don’t think Chep looked maxed in his WR effort, and there was no comp and I think Ramsden was the pacer. He ran alone for 2K, didn’t he? As long as they don’t jostle and as long as they run even rather than trying to burn people with injections of pace I think it’s possible.
Also I don’t think Chep is done yet. Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. He had a mediocre race at World XC, but XC caters more to the endurance guys and Chep still has better speed than these dudes. I hear a lot of talk about Kiplimo, Aregawi, and Kejelcha but come track time the 2 Ethiopians are inconsistent at best, and Kiplimo has yet to reproduce his XC and HM success.
12:30 is fast, but I don’t think Chep looked maxed in his WR effort, and there was no comp and I think Ramsden was the pacer. He ran alone for 2K, didn’t he? As long as they don’t jostle and as long as they run even rather than trying to burn people with injections of pace I think it’s possible.
Cheptegei’s last lap was 61, so yeah, he was maxed.
12:30 is fast, but I don’t think Chep looked maxed in his WR effort, and there was no comp and I think Ramsden was the pacer. He ran alone for 2K, didn’t he? As long as they don’t jostle and as long as they run even rather than trying to burn people with injections of pace I think it’s possible.
Cheptegei’s last lap was 61, so yeah, he was maxed.
Uh, no? That's just blatantly wrong. He closed in 59. Besides, it's well known the temperature at Monaco was less than ideal.
Simply not human, surely can run 26:10 now on a very good day, to get another historic mark. But for now.. Let's just cherish this mesmerizing performance. Bow to king Joshua the lion.
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