Nico is a strong aerobic runner who is good at a range of events. I think he’ll probably be an excellent marathoner someday but we’re going to see him on the track mostly 5K/10k for a while.
Cross country is different than track. Nico has a bouncy stride that puts a lot of force into the ground. On softer ground (like grass) a stride like that is getting less energy back because the force is being absorbed by the softer ground. A more cadence-oriented runner will not be as detrimentally affected.
Huh? Can you give an example of your theory besides Young? The best 5000/10000m runners are invariably just as good in XC.
Gebrselassie dominating Tergat on the track but being outdone in XC comes to mind
Huh? Can you give an example of your theory besides Young? The best 5000/10000m runners are invariably just as good in XC.
Gebrselassie dominating Tergat on the track but being outdone in XC comes to mind
Definitely but the thing is Nico was excellent in XC in previous years. He was just a bit off. Maybe he missed a week with a cold or had an injury in August. Or just had a bad day. Who knows.
nico fate will be how he can close in real races. Can he run 13:00 pace and close in 52? Run a last 1k in 2:20? Nico needs to figure out what races give him the best chance of being competitive.
If he is more aggressive than not, N Young has a decent shot at making Olympic team in both 5000m & 10000m. Beyond that, who knows. Your speed evaluation is off. In a 5000m heat split slower than 11:00 at 4000m, he only would have a coin toss chance of making 5000m final.
Huh? Can you give an example of your theory besides Young? The best 5000/10000m runners are invariably just as good in XC.
Gebrselassie dominating Tergat on the track but being outdone in XC comes to mind
But Gabrselassie was the cadance oriented runner while Tergat had a long stride and so did Ngugi. I also don’t believe that Geb, and many other great runners, took XC very seriously.
Gebrselassie dominating Tergat on the track but being outdone in XC comes to mind
But Gabrselassie was the cadance oriented runner while Tergat had a long stride and so did Ngugi. I also don’t believe that Geb, and many other great runners, took XC very seriously.
The Kenyan team worked together against Gebrselassie, burning him up with surges until Tergat made his main move. Tergat was pretty close to Geb in the track 10k too, he was just a little bit worse in the kick.
Cross country is different than track. Nico has a bouncy stride that puts a lot of force into the ground. On softer ground (like grass) a stride like that is getting less energy back because the force is being absorbed by the softer ground. A more cadence-oriented runner will not be as detrimentally affected.
Huh? Can you give an example of your theory besides Young? The best 5000/10000m runners are invariably just as good in XC.
Mo Farah, Geb, Jakob Ingebrigsten getting 12th at world jr xc and running 13:02 in the 5k the same year
Huh? Can you give an example of your theory besides Young? The best 5000/10000m runners are invariably just as good in XC.
Mo Farah, Geb, Jakob Ingebrigsten getting 12th at world jr xc and running 13:02 in the 5k the same year
In the NCAA, runners peak for both XC and track, so comparisons are meaningful, but World XC is offseason. For Jakob, 8K XC is not the same as a 5000m, and Farah didn’t seem to take any races seriously besides the WC and Olympics.
As for the “formula” does anyone believe that Centro could have ever run 27:00.
Ultimately, he will be equally good at the 5, 10, HM and marathon.
My guess is that will be essentially true for 3k, 5k, 10k, and HM, with him being most competitive internationally at 5k/10k. The most boring answer is often the right one.
Ultimately, he will be equally good at the 5, 10, HM and marathon.
My guess is that will be essentially true for 3k, 5k, 10k, and HM, with him being most competitive internationally at 5k/10k. The most boring answer is often the right one.
Definitely not the 3000m. He just doesn’t have the middle distance speed to be as good as he is at the longer distances.
Was going through old Nico Young threads the last couple days, and it seems like at various points in the last 5 years, consensus has ranged all the way from 3k/5k guy with serious 1500 potential in a strength race, to a marathoner with too little speed to have a real chance on the track. After his indoor season, I don't think anyone doubts his speed.
Now that he's won the 3k/5k at NCAAs closing in 1:54/sub-4, run 3:57 at 7k feet, run 12:57, and run 26:52 in a stacked race beating everyone except Fisher, what is his best event?
I think his best shot to make the Olympic team is in the 10k because he has the standard, but the more I think about it, it might end up being his best event. His PRs at age 21 are incredibly Rupp-esque. Rupp's PBs were 1:49.87/3:50.92/7:30/12:58/26:44. Nico's are 1:49.61/12:57/26:52, and he's probably close to 3:50/7:30 shape based on his 3:57 at altitude and his 5k/10k times. Even coming off a season where he was trying to win a championship 3k/5k double, he was able to drop a 26:52 with a kick.
His 26:52 was nuts, not just for the time, but for the people he beat. Sure, he was in peak shape because he was coming off NCAAs, but all the pros in that race were peaking too. Fisher didn't run World Indoors so he could focus on this race, and I'd be shocked if he wasn't in sub-26:40 shape. He ran 8:03/12:51 indoors, just off the WRs. He'll be better outdoors, but I'm sure Nico will be too. His confidence shocked me. In his prerace interview, he was absolutely sure he was in sub-27 shape, and in his postrace interview, he said he knew at 5k that he was gonna break 27.
With that said, could he be competitive in the marathon or 5k? He's got better PBs than all of our marathoners now, and he reminds me of Mantz in the way they both seem to hurt all the time. Young's 10k was better than his 5k, but his 5k was in January. calculator with his 800/10k times puts him at 12:52. He's looked better than Grijalva and Nur so far this year. 12:52 doesn't sound unreasonable to me after that 10k. If the 5k this year is slow till Jakob makes it a fast mile (like the last 2 years), how does Young fare there compared to the 10k? Also, he said he wanted to do a 1500 next. Could he run something there that changes your mind?
A sub-27 would have been a stretch. Guys who can run 1:44 in the 800m would be extremely hard pressed to have that type of endurance over 10,000m. Webb for example ran 27:34 in his debut, and was able to run 1:43.8 the next year. I don’t think Webb would’ve ever been able to break 27:00.
Centro may have had slightly less fast twitch than Webb, and superior endurance over the 5,000m, but I think a sub-27 10,000m was a bit out of Centro’s wheelhouse. I could see a 27:10 - 27:15 at best around the time he ran 13:00.
Nico is the second coming of our lord and savior Galen Rupp. Just like Galen, he’s finding his kick at the end of his junior year of college. His best event right now is a toss up between 5K and 10K and I suspect that’s where we will see him for the foreseeable future with maybe a slight nod towards 10K in my opinion. That being said, just like Rupp he has the potential to be great in the marathon and in an alternate reality where US runners tried the ‘thon earlier in their careers, I have no doubt he would immediately be one of the top marathon runners in the country.
I hope Nico goes to the HM distance early in his career. I feel he could challenge the HM American record or at least get a sub 1:01-1:02 time like Mantz.
But he'll probably stick to 5K/10K to maximize his Olympic chances.
1:01-1:02 is a massive undersell for a 26:52 guy
Luke Puskedra only ran 13:31 and about 28 minutes and he ran 1:01xx. Nico is much faster than that.
Henry Rono was by far the best collegiate runner EVER. When he went on his record breaking streak he has very little competition and still set NUMEROUS World Records without super shoes, fast tracks, and any type of pacing.
The Henry Rono of then would be running significantly faster than any collegiate from 3000 to 10000m (including the steeplechase) had he been in his prime now!
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