I remember some years back the race went out in like 81 seconds for the first 400m...for all our sakes lets hope we don't have a repeat of that ever again.
I think Adam Spencer of Wisco will get his first title. 3rd outdoors last year, then had a huge breakout in the summer, going 3:31 and nearly making the world final (last man out I believe). Crushed the field at Big10, ran a solid 3:52 at Millrose, beat Sahlman on the 1200 at Alex Wilson with a 2:48ish performance. He's got a great kick, and he's certainly the class of the field in a fast race. Adam Spencer, 3:56 with a 1:53 close, locking it in!
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
I think Waskom wins either the mile or 1500 this year. Sahlman looked pretty spectacular in January, and I imagine Mike Smith will have him more prepared for NCAAs. Still, would I have him over the reigning NCAA 1500 champ, reigning NCAA mile champ, 2nd placer at USAs, and a 3:31 guy?
lol Waskoms a 3:34 guy tho, not a 3:31 guy
He didn’t claim that Waskom’s a 3:31 guy. I’ll break it down: “Still, would I have Sahlman over Nathan Green, Luke Houser, Joe Waskom, and Adam Spencer?”
That’s not even mentioning 3:32.87/3:50.46 guy Essayi (yeah, I know he lost to Khan at SECs). Crazy stacked field we have here. With a gun to my head, I’d take Houser to repeat.
I remember some years back the race went out in like 81 seconds for the first 400m...for all our sakes lets hope we don't have a repeat of that ever again.
Out of curiosity, was this in 2006? Christian Smith won in 4:12 that year (slowest winning time from at least 1965 - present). I wish I could find a video of it. Would be hilarious.
I remember some years back the race went out in like 81 seconds for the first 400m...for all our sakes lets hope we don't have a repeat of that ever again.
Comically tactical races are great when it's something like low stakes like when the America East 10k went out in 6:10 but yeah it is rather disappointing when it's an NCAA final (or Olympic) final and that happens. Still fun to watch the chaos though, especially indoors.
It's impossible to predict an indoor mile. There are too many top milers in too little space. There is much more luck involved in indoors than outdoors. The top runners can easily be boxed in, shuffled back with nowhere to go, interfered with or tripped up. There is always the likelihood that the first half is painfully slow and then everyone takes off. Good luck if you're not in or near the front when that happens. It would be nice to see the fastest milers just go for it from the start. If you're the fastest guy just run faster than everyone else.
Yeah, Waskom isn't the reigning 1500m or mile champ either. Adam Spencer ran 3:31 last year. He actually made it to the semis at Worlds, where Waskom went out in the heats. Waskom beat Hocker/Teare/Kessler at USAs, which shows racing acumen (and beat Garcia Romo at NCAAs before he was 4th at Worlds), which is why I like him so much looking forward. Spencer made it further at Worlds, but he was only 3rd at NCAAs (behind Waskom), and made it to Worlds based on time (no stacked nationals race). I don't think he beats Waskom tactically, but Spencer is so fit, you'd be a fool to count him out.
He didn’t claim that Waskom’s a 3:31 guy. I’ll break it down: “Still, would I have Sahlman over Nathan Green, Luke Houser, Joe Waskom, and Adam Spencer?”
That’s not even mentioning 3:32.87/3:50.46 guy Essayi (yeah, I know he lost to Khan at SECs). Crazy stacked field we have here. With a gun to my head, I’d take Houser to repeat.
Oh yeah this ^
Ngl the only thing I remember about Essayi is that he ran 3:50i last year and then didn't win anything. I saw he ran 3:51.9 this year, and figured if he couldn't win in 3:50 shape, he probably won't win in 3:51 shape.
But! I just went through his WA profile and saw that he was 3rd indoors and 4th outdoors (albeit behind 3 guys who are in this race). I don't think you can count him out, but Waskom, Green, Houser, and Spencer all look better to me. Thinking about it more, I feel less confident in Sahlman winning. Really, I'm just betting on talent and how good he looked closing that 3:53 in 55. Seems like almost half the field has an equal chance of winning.
This young mug for Florida! Khan all the way!!!! (If he gets in)
22nd is pretty low, but…
Nico will not declare
Wolfe will not declare
At least one of the 4 Washington guys will not declare (choosing DMR instead). Green? He is ranked 2nd at 800m, but only 8th in the mile. It would be better for team points for him to run the 800m. At best, 3 of his teammates score less points in the mile if he is there.
Murphy? Choosing the 3000m would probably be a better option for him. He can kick and he would come in fresher than the guys who have already run the 5000m &/or DMR &/or the mile Quali
Quax will not declare. He will be doing DMR and 3000m surely
Troutner? He will probably declare, but maybe he will simply choose the 3000m
Samuel will not declare. He will run 3000/5000
We have 6 or 7 guys here who may not declare in the mile.
So do we know yet? Rumours must be fully out by now.
This young mug for Florida! Khan all the way!!!! (If he gets in)
22nd is pretty low, but…
Nico will not declare
Wolfe will not declare
At least one of the 4 Washington guys will not declare (choosing DMR instead). Green? He is ranked 2nd at 800m, but only 8th in the mile. It would be better for team points for him to run the 800m. At best, 3 of his teammates score less points in the mile if he is there.
Murphy? Choosing the 3000m would probably be a better option for him. He can kick and he would come in fresher than the guys who have already run the 5000m &/or DMR &/or the mile Quali
Quax will not declare. He will be doing DMR and 3000m surely
Troutner? He will probably declare, but maybe he will simply choose the 3000m
Samuel will not declare. He will run 3000/5000
We have 6 or 7 guys here who may not declare in the mile.
Murphy would be wise to go in the 3k. Not an unusual move for a guy NOT picked to win the mile to move up and hope for a typically slow NCAA final. In the mile he will be up against it (I believe he was last in the outdoor 1500m final in June) but in the 3k, he will probably be fastest guy on the track over final 200m.
At least one of the 4 Washington guys will not declare (choosing DMR instead). Green? He is ranked 2nd at 800m, but only 8th in the mile. It would be better for team points for him to run the 800m. At best, 3 of his teammates score less points in the mile if he is there.
Murphy? Choosing the 3000m would probably be a better option for him. He can kick and he would come in fresher than the guys who have already run the 5000m &/or DMR &/or the mile Quali
Quax will not declare. He will be doing DMR and 3000m surely
Troutner? He will probably declare, but maybe he will simply choose the 3000m
Samuel will not declare. He will run 3000/5000
We have 6 or 7 guys here who may not declare in the mile.
Murphy would be wise to go in the 3k. Not an unusual move for a guy NOT picked to win the mile to move up and hope for a typically slow NCAA final. In the mile he will be up against it (I believe he was last in the outdoor 1500m final in June) but in the 3k, he will probably be fastest guy on the track over final 200m.
This young mug for Florida! Khan all the way!!!! (If he gets in)
22nd is pretty low, but…
Nico will not declare
Wolfe will not declare
At least one of the 4 Washington guys will not declare (choosing DMR instead). Green? He is ranked 2nd at 800m, but only 8th in the mile. It would be better for team points for him to run the 800m. At best, 3 of his teammates score less points in the mile if he is there.
Murphy? Choosing the 3000m would probably be a better option for him. He can kick and he would come in fresher than the guys who have already run the 5000m &/or DMR &/or the mile Quali
Quax will not declare. He will be doing DMR and 3000m surely
Troutner? He will probably declare, but maybe he will simply choose the 3000m
Samuel will not declare. He will run 3000/5000
We have 6 or 7 guys here who may not declare in the mile.
Nico - check
Wolfe- check
Green - check
Murphy - check
Quax - check
Troutner - he was only 18th in the 3000m and it was hard to see who would scratch from the 3000m (nobody did), so he made the right choice by sticking to the mile
I think Adam Spencer of Wisco will get his first title. 3rd outdoors last year, then had a huge breakout in the summer, going 3:31 and nearly making the world final (last man out I believe). Crushed the field at Big10, ran a solid 3:52 at Millrose, beat Sahlman on the 1200 at Alex Wilson with a 2:48ish performance. He's got a great kick, and he's certainly the class of the field in a fast race. Adam Spencer, 3:56 with a 1:53 close, locking it in!
My Two Pennies is correct. I think Adam Spencer has the most potential in the field at the world-level over the long term and will rise to the occasion at the upcoming NCAA meet. He is a tough racer on the oval. He was also much better in cross country this year and the cross country 10k is well outside of his sweet spot as a runner. No, he didnt finish top 40 in cross country but it speaks to his overall improved strength and competitiveness. He is going to be ready. I predict 3:49-3:50 if the race goes all out but Spencer can also win a ~3:55 tactical race too.
He is going to be ready. I predict 3:49-3:50 if the race goes all out but Spencer can also win a ~3:55 tactical race too.
4:03.33 was the winning time last year.
’23 - 4:03.33
’22 - 4:07.54
’21 - 3:53.71
‘19 - 4:07.69
’18 - 3:57.02
’17 - 4:03.22
Point is, 3:55 wouldn’t be very “tactical” and 3:49-3:50 (collegiate record territory in an unpaced championship race) would be very surprising. Spencer just won Big 10s in 4:05.90 FWIW.
I think Adam Spencer of Wisco will get his first title. 3rd outdoors last year, then had a huge breakout in the summer, going 3:31 and nearly making the world final (last man out I believe). Crushed the field at Big10, ran a solid 3:52 at Millrose, beat Sahlman on the 1200 at Alex Wilson with a 2:48ish performance. He's got a great kick, and he's certainly the class of the field in a fast race. Adam Spencer, 3:56 with a 1:53 close, locking it in!
Not to be a d*ck but he was DFL in his Worlds semi finishing 4 seconds off the back. Could not have been further from making the final for a semi finalist.
I’d say he’s probably third favorite behind Houser and Waskom, but he certainly should be considered a good contender. Essayi doing World Indoors and such seems like a lot. And to me tactically he struggles at his size without the burst/shiftiness that a Manzano had for instance. But maybe he gets it right this year.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
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