AI isn’t as good as you make it seem. For example, Sora can make great B roll footage when you just want a drone shot. But what if you wanted to make a customer testimonial video? You still need to fly out to the customers location, plan the script, get talented videographers and lighting equipment and editors. Not to mention the intangible aspects of a video that tells a story and communicates the exact message that your company wants to convey to other customers.
you cant write a prompt in sora that says “make a customer testimonial video of X customer and make it look like it’s that person talking.” It’s also not iterative yet. For example if you feed it a prompt and it doesn’t give you what you want, you can’t control it and modify it if you were say, a highly skilled after effects specialist.
the only thing that sora replaces is stock footage that you might purchase on shutterstock.
You're totally missing the big picture.
I agree that certain types of video projects still require a human team to produce - for now.
But look at the rate of advancement in the last year. in 2023, AI-generated videos were hilariously bad. Now, they're scary good. In terms of making AI videos indistinguishable from real videos, we're already 99% there.
Given the way AI models are built + the current rate of advancement, it's very likely that we'll achieve 100% in just a few months.
To your example of testimonials: If I'm a business owner and want to do a video case study on client, and AI can write the script and make the video perfectly, for free - why would I pay a production agency $1000s to do it?
The client gives me permission to use their name and likeness, approves some canned lines, I give the prompt to AI and it generates an inspiring script + video in seconds.
I think you’re missing the big picture as well. No one is comfortable having an AI create a likeness of them. Even in a positive light. It would only reach the level of humor or a joke. but someone who spent years to build a reputation would not want a computer program to risk their reputation.
plus people like talking themselves. Heck most customers are reticent to sign off on a written testimonial. What makes you think they’d be ok with us creating a fake video of them speaking?
that assumes that sora is even good enough to create human scenes. The ones I saw of Nigeria were weird. It got peoples arms all weird. And we’re not even talking about someone’s lips moving.
the human face has hundreds (thousands of muscles) in the face. Animators around the world have tried to recreate a realistic 3D representation of characters speaking and it is so insanely difficult that they have to use real actors with sensors attached to their face in order to get the correct motion.
AI can’t do that without the same data inputs, therefore it’s not really creating any efficiencies.
I agree that certain types of video projects still require a human team to produce - for now.
But look at the rate of advancement in the last year. in 2023, AI-generated videos were hilariously bad. Now, they're scary good. In terms of making AI videos indistinguishable from real videos, we're already 99% there.
Given the way AI models are built + the current rate of advancement, it's very likely that we'll achieve 100% in just a few months.
To your example of testimonials: If I'm a business owner and want to do a video case study on client, and AI can write the script and make the video perfectly, for free - why would I pay a production agency $1000s to do it?
The client gives me permission to use their name and likeness, approves some canned lines, I give the prompt to AI and it generates an inspiring script + video in seconds.
I think you’re missing the big picture as well. No one is comfortable having an AI create a likeness of them. Even in a positive light. It would only reach the level of humor or a joke. but someone who spent years to build a reputation would not want a computer program to risk their reputation.
plus people like talking themselves. Heck most customers are reticent to sign off on a written testimonial. What makes you think they’d be ok with us creating a fake video of them speaking?
that assumes that sora is even good enough to create human scenes. The ones I saw of Nigeria were weird. It got peoples arms all weird. And we’re not even talking about someone’s lips moving.
the human face has hundreds (thousands of muscles) in the face. Animators around the world have tried to recreate a realistic 3D representation of characters speaking and it is so insanely difficult that they have to use real actors with sensors attached to their face in order to get the correct motion.
AI can’t do that without the same data inputs, therefore it’s not really creating any efficiencies.
AI is getting exponentially better.
It's not perfect, but once again look at the rate of advancement. There's not reason to believe it's going to slow down.
Let me ask you a question - how does your answer change if/when AI can produce video truly indistinguishable from reality?
Everyone oohing and aahing over AI are people who have never programmed. You are not seeing anything special or creative.
Those text to picture apps, for example, are just some programmer's idea of how to turn text into a picture. The AI creates nothing. Spend enough time at it (won't take long) and you'll suss out all the algorithms.
The more complex the AI, the more specialized and limited its real-world function can be. And the more fragile and glitch-prone.
You What's going to blow your mind is when you realize students are starting to use Chat GPT to write their assignments and there is no way to check to see if they did so or not (outside of knowing the students personally). Also, teachers are using chat GPT to write lesson plans, and comments for report cards. Coaches are using it to write practice plans. Originality, what's left of it, is on the doorstep of extinction.
Then I asked ChatGPT to alter it:
re-write it like I am rojo, the owner of Letsrun.com
ChatGPT Picture this: students are now turning to ChatGPT to churn out their assignments, and there's no surefire way to verify if they're the real brains behind the work or not (unless you're tight with them). But here's the kicker: teachers are also hopping on the ChatGPT bandwagon to craft lesson plans and jot down comments for those pesky report cards. And guess what? Coaches aren't left out either; they're using it to sketch out their practice sessions. The concept of originality? Fading fast, my friends.
Forgot to add, there are AI detectors that can detect fake work, but if you drop any chatGPT generated work into Quillbot, it further changes it so AI detectors can't detect it.
Here is the above in Quillbot:
Imagine this: students are using ChatGPT to complete their tasks, and unless you're really strict with them, there's no reliable method to find out if they're the true experts behind the work or not. The worst part is that educators are using ChatGPT to create lesson plans and write remarks for those annoying report cards. And what do you know? Not only that, but coaches are also use it to plan out their practice sessions. The notion of uniqueness? Fast fading, my companions.
Everyone oohing and aahing over AI are people who have never programmed. You are not seeing anything special or creative.
Those text to picture apps, for example, are just some programmer's idea of how to turn text into a picture. The AI creates nothing. Spend enough time at it (won't take long) and you'll suss out all the algorithms.
The more complex the AI, the more specialized and limited its real-world function can be. And the more fragile and glitch-prone.
State your credentials and why we should believe you as an authority on this topic.
If you read the book Bulls*** Jobs by David Graeber, you know that productivity increasing 1000x simply means that bogus jobs will emerge to fill the vacuum.
There seem to be two types of people in the "AI doubter" camp:
1. Educated people who don't really understand how AI works or aren't aware of how quickly it is advancing.
2. Uneducated morons who aren't able to reason cause and effect properly or have any sort of grasp at the scale of the changes happening.
I used to be a doubter, but not anymore.
AI is progressing faster than even the evangelists predicted. With OpenAI's latest release (Sora), you can create any kind of movie or video with a simple text prompt. Just whatever absurd premise you can dream up, it generates a video in any style you like. Or just normal things, like drone shots of a city or coastline.
AI basically killed videographers, drone companies, animators, video editors, photographers, graphic designers and a bunch of related careers overnight. There's no future in those careers; they have about 6-12 months left of viability.
AI is getting very close to being able to solve abstract problems without using the material is was trained on. This is the key point. Soon it will longer relies on data inputs from humans, it will be able to reason on its own.
Lawyers, healthcare technicians, data analysts, accountants, finance workers, copywriters, people working in marketing are next. Better start preparing.
If you disagree, you're not paying attention.
The pace of improvement is really surprising, I agree.
Nobody really knows how long it will continue.
1) If it does continue for, dunno, something like ~10 years then civilization is permanently changed and the 'human' race enters a new state of existence.
2) It could plateau any time before than in ways that tons of more computing power can't fix. Still enormously useful, but maybe not existentially transformative.
The probability of 1) is high enough that it's going to be single most important issue of the next 10 years or so.
I think you’re missing the big picture as well. No one is comfortable having an AI create a likeness of them. Even in a positive light. It would only reach the level of humor or a joke. but someone who spent years to build a reputation would not want a computer program to risk their reputation.
plus people like talking themselves. Heck most customers are reticent to sign off on a written testimonial. What makes you think they’d be ok with us creating a fake video of them speaking?
that assumes that sora is even good enough to create human scenes. The ones I saw of Nigeria were weird. It got peoples arms all weird. And we’re not even talking about someone’s lips moving.
the human face has hundreds (thousands of muscles) in the face. Animators around the world have tried to recreate a realistic 3D representation of characters speaking and it is so insanely difficult that they have to use real actors with sensors attached to their face in order to get the correct motion.
AI can’t do that without the same data inputs, therefore it’s not really creating any efficiencies.
The AI revolution will not ask permission.
AI solved translation and voice transcription and image classification without needing any of the complex inputs and data structures that were in use previously.
Case in point - this morning, I had an idea for a simple fitness app. I told GPT-4 in plain English what I wanted it to do and it wrote the code for me and all I had to do was deploy it. No coding required.
Let me repeat - it wrote the code and created the app for me.
^I think this is interesting. Can you please post a link to the app, for evaluation?
I agree that certain types of video projects still require a human team to produce - for now.
But look at the rate of advancement in the last year. in 2023, AI-generated videos were hilariously bad. Now, they're scary good. In terms of making AI videos indistinguishable from real videos, we're already 99% there.
Given the way AI models are built + the current rate of advancement, it's very likely that we'll achieve 100% in just a few months.
To your example of testimonials: If I'm a business owner and want to do a video case study on client, and AI can write the script and make the video perfectly, for free - why would I pay a production agency $1000s to do it?
The client gives me permission to use their name and likeness, approves some canned lines, I give the prompt to AI and it generates an inspiring script + video in seconds.
I think you’re missing the big picture as well. No one is comfortable having an AI create a likeness of them. Even in a positive light. It would only reach the level of humor or a joke. but someone who spent years to build a reputation would not want a computer program to risk their reputation.
plus people like talking themselves. Heck most customers are reticent to sign off on a written testimonial. What makes you think they’d be ok with us creating a fake video of them speaking?
that assumes that sora is even good enough to create human scenes. The ones I saw of Nigeria were weird. It got peoples arms all weird. And we’re not even talking about someone’s lips moving.
the human face has hundreds (thousands of muscles) in the face. Animators around the world have tried to recreate a realistic 3D representation of characters speaking and it is so insanely difficult that they have to use real actors with sensors attached to their face in order to get the correct motion.
AI can’t do that without the same data inputs, therefore it’s not really creating any efficiencies.
There actually is an accelerating tectonic shift going on right now with motion capture (mocap), avatar creation, etc. Your response indicates you are not yet aware.
We're less than a year away from entire runs of TV shows and movies that are AI-generated. And this isn't "ChatGPT, make me a Famous Actor," it's "use that info we generated when we scanned Famous Actor."
Next time they strike? It's all AI.
This is going to be the biggest upheaval since the automobile, or since electricity, or whatever.
The ONLY thing that stands in the way is the capacity to store all this data. We don't have unlimited server farms, and that's about to be a huge issue.
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