College Mile Records in Jeopardy @ Millrose Games (2/11)

I would also like to be clear on Murphy and his development. Obviously being a NJ guy most of my life and a "Nova shill....I was hoping he would be very very good. He has clearly exceeded anything I thought he would or could be. He was an 8:50's high 3200M guy, Xc Champ in NJ, 4:10-11 1600M guy albeit in CoVid window.

That he would be 14th at NC Cross, run 13:21 right off that and then 3:53.85? That surprises and impresses me.

He has 2-3 step acceleration speed, very very quick shifter. A great bonus skill.

Kang Nyoak ran 9+ seconds faster at sea level than at NAU (same meets) and he has been at altitude just as long, at NAU since 2020-21, having competed for NAU outdoors for three seasons already, so Young being there since 2020-21 as well did not have his mile over-converted. That 12:57 should have clued you into the fact that Nico Young is in tremendous shape. He would likely lose a tactical mile to Murphy but probably not a mile like this one with a guy apparently chasing the World Record.

To be fair, Kang Nyoak has been there since 2020/21 and ran faster than his 4:06 conversion. Maggi Congdon who made me initially think the conversion was way too generous given her previous prs ran practically the exact conversion a week later and shes also been with the team since 2021. Even Bryn Morley who has results as far back as 2018(how old does that make her?) has a pr from the previous year that would be inline with the conversion.

We completely disagree and this happens

12:57 in no way indicates 3:50, they are in no way linked

Grant Fisher never ran that

Kincaid or Klecker

Nico Young was never thought if as a top flight mile prospect and I believe he is not and that 3k is the bottom of his competitive range.

Thats my opinion.

The issue to me is:

Race competition

Relative importance and effort

etc etc. make this "science" of conversion so generously In exact at best

just my view. There are too many examples as well tgat just dont work

I read last night that she thought she had a qualifying mark for 3000 world indoors based on a race in December, but later learned that meet wasn't used by World Athletics for qualifying standards.

So she is going to try again in this race. There will be a 3000 time split taken during the 2 mile.

That makes sense.

If Millrose is giving an official 3k en-route time, I am surprised some collegians are not taking advantage of that (ie Valby) because they could use it for a qualifer, or for the 3k record.

Very possible Murphy beats Young in a head to head mile but I don’t know how you can say Young’s altitude mile was “over converted” after that monster workout where he coasted a 1:55 last 800m…at altitude.

It is not at a college invitational, so if it happens it should not count

Whaaaat?
You surely are kidding?

I think the conversion issue is twofold with the first factor being most important, but the second overlooked somewhat in this case:

1) Some athletes are very well-accustomed to altitude and the effect is smaller

- This is why there are many Kenyans who could run 3:31-3 at 5,000 feet but would not suddenly be 3:27 guys at sea level. Nico has been at Flagstaff for some time, but surely isn't at that extreme a level as an Abel Kipsang (3:31A), Reynold Cheruiyot (3:32A) or Ronald Kwemoi (3:30A). So maybe the conversion is a tad generous on this front, but the BU supertrack and greater competition might cancel out a large bit of that.

2) Running a faster tempo also requires "being faster" not just breathing more easily

- This doesn't apply to the Sahlmans, but could to Nico. Nico's limiting factor isn't his very good aerobic strength, it's what the max speed he can run while remaining comfortable enough for a mile and not tying up. So the 3:48 number seems ambitious, but could I see him running 3:50-3:52.0? Yes, I really could. Nico has pretty good wheels, and NAU's system produces pretty versatile results. I think the temptation is to think Mike Smith with double threshold and altitude would produce guys whose best event would be the 10K, but it seems more like the 5K and his guys fare well in the 1500 and 3000 with not the crazy time trial success in the 10,000 just yet. Maybe that changes at The Ten.

They have not raced at a mile. We don't know who would beat whom. We do know that Nico is not a miler anyway. He just ran 12:57.1 CR.

Murphy just ran a big PR of 3:53.89. That's what he is. Hopefully he runs well at Millrose. He certainly will be pulled along by better guys. Should PR.

You don't know what a guy can run until he runs it. 12:57.1 is just that. There is no way to determine what the guy runs at another distance. Young will not run the equivalent at a mile because he is a 5K guy. Could he run 3:52.0? We'll know that he can when he does it.

You're probably right . . . probably.

Athletes often perform far better in their second race of the season and beyond . . . which is the reason for believing Maia could take a few more seconds off last weekend's 4:30 despite having only one more week of training . . . along with the excitement of actually racing the Wanamaker Mile against the likes of ESP & Hall who are likely targeting sub-4:20.

And then you put all that in context with Tuohy's 4:24 last year . . . which was right out of the chute at the Dr Sander meet at the end of January . . . from a woman most consider a xc and 5k specialist . . . Katelyn's 2023 indoor season, which included two college records followed by two NCAA titles, was likely the greatest indoor season ever by a college distance runner . . .

Congdon was born and raised in Steamboat Springs CO, 6700 ft

I have no unique insight on Liam Murphy's training or what they're trying to get out of this race.

What I will say as someone who follows the program closely is that Marcus has never been particularly interested in his athletes running fast times. Villanova is close enough to Boston that they could send athletes to BU for every big meet meet but they don't. I have little doubt that Marcus knew that this race would be stacked and that Nuguse would likely be going for a world record (he's been telegraphing that for weeks).

So I don't think that Murphy is in this race just so he can marginally improve on his 3:53.85 seed time. I think it indicates that Marcus has supreme confidence in his fitness and thinks he can do something special.

The local buzz says Murphy is MEGA fit. Apparently he was around 2.0 mmol in lactate testing for 2:50 1ks at the end of a 10x1k workout. That’s barely threshold lactate levels for 4:32 mile pace.

Obviously one can extrapolate what that means for precise mile projections, but fitness is fitness and he’s got it. Marcus called up Ray Flynn and got him in there for a reason: to go for it. He already has his NCAA seed time locked up at 3:53, he has a 5k time locked up. Marcus could’ve gotten him in the two mile at Millrose or done the 3k at BU to give him the pick of events for NCAA indoors, but Murphy is going back to mile. Why? To chase something insane.

If you’ve followed Murphy’s career, you know he’s going to go for it. His junior year of high school he did the unthinkable of going from 9:17 to 8:54 indoor on a flat track, outkicking the heavy favorite Devin Hart after just hanging on the whole time. Last year at outdoor NCAAs, despite getting smoked on the last lap, he swung 3 people wide with a lap to go in the 1500. He will always swing for the fences. I’d guarantee he’s through 809m in sub 1:56. The question is what happens the second half.

Well, Annas Essayi and Joe Waksom were within one second of the collegiate record last year and they're both still in the NCAAs, so maybe they'll do it.

Adam Spencer ran a 3:31, so I see no reason he can't do it

I wouldn't be so sure. Ramsden ran 8:46 for 3000m at the beginning of December. This equates to about a 4:26.5 for the indoor mile and about 4:04 for an outdoor 1500, better than her 4:08 PR. She may have just had an off race last week. The pace at Millrose will be hot with St. Pierre, Hull, and Andrews. If she can latch on and has a good race, I think it is well within her capabilities. Remember, she gapped the field at NCAAs in June.

Did anyone else hear her mention something about her hip in that recent trackaccess video? Tightness, or?