The biggest longshot who will make the 2024 US Olympic Marathon team will be...

Beat me to it. Would not at all be surprised to see a Young-Mantz-Allen podium in Orlando.

I cut and pasted these names from another thread. Eighteen guys under 2:10:00 although several were from the Marathon Project (and Abdi’s PR is pretty old):

Conner Mantz 2:07:47
Clayton Young 2:08:00
Galen Rupp 2:08:48
Sam Chelanga 2:08:50
Scott Fauble 2:08:52
Elkanah Kibet 2:09:07
Zach Panning 2:09:28
Leonard Korir 2:09:31
Futsum Zienasellassie 2:09:40
Brian Shrader 2:09:46
Matt McDonald 2:09:49
Nicolas Montanez 2:09:55
Martin Hehir 2:08:59
Noah Droddy 2:09:09
Colin Bennie 2:09:38
Ian Butler 2:09:45
Mick Iacofano 2:09:55

and

Abdi Abdirahman 2:08:56

I listened to part of 2023 Swedish podcast with an English language interview of Diego. It was well before the Houston Half so his goals may have changed.

He has been doing double threshold training and seemed focused on breaking 27:00 and making the U.S. 10,000 Team — he suggested that he did not completely feel running for Mexico in 2012 counted.

I gotta say wejo, this sentence is totally ambiguous. When people say “he’s a long shot to win a medal,” it doesn’t mean the man in question has won the medal, or that they’re predicting he will… in the same way, your sentence is easy to construe as “Which Olympic Trials Marathon participant is the least likely to make the team?”…ya dig?

Anyway, I don’t think he’s really a long shot but the least-predicted qualifier who I have making it is Abbabiya Simbassa.

Probably want to pull from the half-marathon list, too. All the performances are 62s, presumably due to whatever the cutoff time was, so just based on those qualifying times there's not much difference between them. But there's a certain man who stands out, and if he runs, would be in that 'likely longshot' territory:

Paul Chelimo 1:02:22 Berlin Half Marathon Berlin, GER 4/2/2023

Yes, he's never raced a marathon (hence a longshot), but how many of the other athletes have 2 Olympic 5000m medals?

usatf.org

USA Track & Field | Men's Half Marathon Performances

Open link

Noah/Sam, Hall.

Ok changed it to "biggest longshot who will make the 2024 US Olympic Marathon team will be..."

100%. I’m picking Flanagan to make the team as my dark horse alongside Saina and Sisson.

Two first timers - Paul Chelimo and Jenny Simpson

Sarah Sellers is going to prove that Boston 2018 wasn't a fluke!

Futsum and Fiona O'Keefe

Don't worry, Gault will let us know where every non-white runner was born in his pre & post race coverage.

Darkhorses: Fischer, Ward, Stinson, Pennel, Rojas, Stoner, and Simpson.

Top-3 Women: Sisson, Saina, Seidel. Top-3 Men: Mantz, Korir, Panning.

Men's race is wide open. Really could just see D'Amato replacing someone on the women's side.

Dark horse picks:

Men: Sam Chelanga

Women: Kellyn Taylor

yes.... and aren't the biggest longshots to make the team the slowest qualifiers in the race?

Not necessarily saying he'll be top 3 at the finish but watch out for Dion Marquise Hayes. They call him 42 because that's the metric distance of the race which he owns the copyright to.

Ian Butler

Q time of only 2:14 but ran a sub 2:10 at the Marathon Project a few years ago. Longest of long shots.

If Chelimo runs he will be my dark horse pick. Not sure the likelihood that he will lineup though.

IF 2 dark horses make the team (one on each side), my picks are:

Stinson on the men's side and Flannagan on the women's side.

That is if you'd classify Flannagan as a dark horse

Would LOVE to see Fischer make it and Fauble as well!!