This is a bold and intriguing prediction. Blanks has run a 3:56 mile and had a monster kick at the NCAA cross country championships. It would not shock me to see him make the team, but I like his chances better in the 10000.
In this thread, posters have been defining a kick as something like 53 for the last 400. Blanks’ “monster” kick at NCAA XC, was a 2:42 last 1K.
This post was edited 33 seconds after it was posted.
"Teare ran the 5000m as a main event before because he was with Bowerman. He now wants to focus on the 1500m, with the 5000 being a backup."
Yes, he has said this, but making the 1500 team is going to be tough. Nuguse and Hocker are better than everyone else, leaving only one spot for the rest of the field. Can Teare outkick Kessler and Prakel and Waskom and Centrowitz and all the other dudes? Remember: he wasn't even able to advance beyond the first heat last year.
By contrast, Teare is extremely well suited for a tactical 5000. He has shown he has excellent strength. All he needs to do to make the team is run with the pack (should not be difficult as the pace will be slow), get into good position on the penultimate lap, and then finish in 53-54 seconds.
Assuming he is very fit, I give him a 1 in 3 chance of making the 1500 team but a 2 out of 3 chance of making the 5000 team. Running both events would be foolish because doing so would compromise his chances in his stronger event.
Maybe he loves the 1500 but I bet he loves making the Olympic team even more. I think he will switch to the 5000.
I feel like everyone forgets in the year where Cole Hocker ran 3:31 and got 6th in the Olympics, he couldn't beat Teare in the 1500/mile. He lost when they ran 3:50i, and he lost when they ran 3:36 (both lost to Nuguse). He also came 6th in the Bowerman Mile in 2022, after beating Hocker indoors when they ran 3:50i again. I think his lack of success last year was probably due to coaching rather than him not being a miler. Now that he's back with Thomas and Hocker, I think he'll be in top form again (especially with the strength he got from BTC training). All that to say, if he opts for the 1500, I think he's the most likely guy to make it, behind Nuguse and Hocker.
He ran a DL 5k last year and was 13th in 13:19. He has missed the team both times he's tried to make it (2021/2023), and his PR sits at 13:06 from 2022. I thought he could run an awesome 5k after that, since it was solo/in the rain/in April/a big kick, and maybe the BTC fitness can help him drop it, but we still have to see. Between Fisher, Nur, Klecker, and Young, the last 1200 is gonna be pretty absurd, and I think Teare has a good skillset for that kind of race (see: Jakob, Katir), but he's never run a 5k at that level. Hopefully he gets in a BU 5k or something and pops a 12:50, but even if something like that happens, I might like his chances in the 1500 better.
This is a bold and intriguing prediction. Blanks has run a 3:56 mile and had a monster kick at the NCAA cross country championships. It would not shock me to see him make the team, but I like his chances better in the 10000.
In this thread, posters have been defining a kick as something like 53 for the last 400. Blanks’ “monster” kick at NCAA XC, was a 2:42 last 1K.
He had a pretty good kick when he set the NCAA 5k record a month ago.
I respect the thought you put into this OP, but the fact is it’s just too early to make some of these statements with any confidence. Between now and the OT, some guys will catch fire, some will get injured, some will be burned out from the collegiate seasons, etc.
If I had to guess the teams at this point, I would say:
10k - Fisher, Kincaid, Klecker
5k - Fisher, Nur, and Chelimo or Kincaid
That’s looking at the macro instead of the micro, or predicting trajectories.
All Fisher has to do is run everyone into the ground but two. Simple strategy for a 12:46 guy.
It would seem like the obvious strategy. But there are plenty of reasons to believe he won't do it:
1) It will probably be warm and humid, making it difficult to run a fast pace.
2) Fisher will have already run the 10000, whereas some of these guys will focus exclusively on the 5000.
3) As noted above, there has never been a Trials 5000 under 13:22.
4) He may not be in peak condition as his major focus will be Paris. Everyone else will be focused on the Trials.
5) Everyone I've listed above is capable of running low to mid 12:50s this year. It's not going to be easy to just "run everyone into the ground but two."
Maybe a strength-based runner -- someone like Grant Fisher, Nico Young, or Joe Klecker -- will start pushing the pace with 1200 - 1600 to go. I doubt they will be able to push the pace hard enough to burn off the kickers.
Who has the best kick?
Predicting what is going to happen in this race is not complicated: The winner is whoever can hang on with the leaders and then run his last lap in 53 seconds. There are only three runners -- Abdihamid Nur, Paul Chelimo, and Woody Kincaid -- who have shown they are capable of doing this.
Nur, the defending champ, was in a class of his own last year. He is young and I assume he will keep improving. I consider him the favorite.
Chelimo, who always performs well at big races (he has two Olympic medals), was not far behind Nur last year. He seems like he has been around forever but is only 33 years old. Remember Bernard Lagat won the Trials at age 41. I think Chelimo will make the team.
Kincaid has an excellent kick. Last year's performance at the USATF meet, however, was mixed. He won the 10000 but was only ninth in the 5000. He is a bit of a wildcard.
Grant Fisher recently smashed the AR in the 3000 meters, which makes him an obvious threat to win here. However, he is not known for his kick or his top-end speed. Nor has he shown a propensity to push the pace in big races. If he allows the pace to dawdle, which he probably will, I think he not only will not win but is unlikely to make the team.
Cooper Teare has run a 3:51 mile and won the USATF 1500 meters in 2022. Based on that it seems he should be capable of kicking as well as Nur and Chelimo (both of whom have mile PRs of just 3:55). Given his excellent recent performance at the USA cross country championships, I assume he will target the 5000 at the Trials rather than face Nuguse et al. in the 1500. Teare was "only" fifth in the 5000 last year (a decent performance) but I think he is fitter this year. I see him as following in the footsteps of Eamonn Coghlan and Said Aouita, former milers who went on to excel at the 5000. I like his chances of making the team. If it comes down to Teare vs Nur and Chelimo in the final 100 meters, Teare has a shot at winning outright.
Nico Young just ran a 3:57 mile at 6,900 feet altitude, indicating a new level of fitness and speed. I doubt any other 5000/10000 American runner could do right now (i.e. in January 2024) what Young just did. Whether he can convert his newfound mile speed into a 53-54 second lap at the end of a 5000 remains to be seen. I have my doubts. Also, with Young showing such sharpness in January, I worry that he is peaking prematurely.
In a slow race, I think McGorty, Blanks, and Klecker are going to struggle on the last lap. McGorty and Klecker were third and fourth, respectively, in the 5000 last year. But this year the competition will be tougher: Fisher and Young will probably both be in the race and I think Teare is more fit now than he was last year.
As of today, my picks are as follows:
1. Nur 2. Teare 3. Chelimo 4. Kincaid 5. Fisher 6. McGorty 7. Young 8. Klecker 9. Blanks
So the guy who ran 12:46 and 7:25 last year is unlikely to make the team.
He had a pretty good kick when he set the NCAA 5k record a month ago.
Yeah, 57 is pretty good off of 13:10ish pace, but there will be guys at the trials that can kick 53-54 in that scenario.
That’s fair but I don’t think anyone is really sure what he is capable of running. This is due to limited races and competition. He’s beaten everyone he has faced up to this point. He hasn’t really raced with pros or guys that can run a 53 or 54
"Teare ran the 5000m as a main event before because he was with Bowerman. He now wants to focus on the 1500m, with the 5000 being a backup."
Yes, he has said this, but making the 1500 team is going to be tough. Nuguse and Hocker are better than everyone else, leaving only one spot for the rest of the field. Can Teare outkick Kessler and Prakel and Waskom and Centrowitz and all the other dudes? Remember: he wasn't even able to advance beyond the first heat last year.
By contrast, Teare is extremely well suited for a tactical 5000. He has shown he has excellent strength. All he needs to do to make the team is run with the pack (should not be difficult as the pace will be slow), get into good position on the penultimate lap, and then finish in 53-54 seconds.
Assuming he is very fit, I give him a 1 in 3 chance of making the 1500 team but a 2 out of 3 chance of making the 5000 team. Running both events would be foolish because doing so would compromise his chances in his stronger event.
Maybe he loves the 1500 but I bet he loves making the Olympic team even more. I think he will switch to the 5000.
Teare’s XC win was a great race for him, but it doesn’t change the landscape. If the best 5/10K runners had been there, he would have finished more than a minute back.
Ahmed Muhumed is a rising star and I considered including him on my list of players in the 5000. Bernard Keter won silver in the steeplechase at USATF in 2023. Anthony Rotitch was fifth in that race. Both Bor brothers ran, for what that's worth.
So, yes, the biggest names weren't there. Still, I was surprised by Teare's win. I think most people were. He is mainly a 1500/5000 track guy after all. I do think this is a big deal and changes the landscape.
Maybe a strength-based runner -- someone like Grant Fisher, Nico Young, or Joe Klecker -- will start pushing the pace with 1200 - 1600 to go. I doubt they will be able to push the pace hard enough to burn off the kickers.
Who has the best kick?
Predicting what is going to happen in this race is not complicated: The winner is whoever can hang on with the leaders and then run his last lap in 53 seconds. There are only three runners -- Abdihamid Nur, Paul Chelimo, and Woody Kincaid -- who have shown they are capable of doing this.
Nur, the defending champ, was in a class of his own last year. He is young and I assume he will keep improving. I consider him the favorite.
Chelimo, who always performs well at big races (he has two Olympic medals), was not far behind Nur last year. He seems like he has been around forever but is only 33 years old. Remember Bernard Lagat won the Trials at age 41. I think Chelimo will make the team.
Kincaid has an excellent kick. Last year's performance at the USATF meet, however, was mixed. He won the 10000 but was only ninth in the 5000. He is a bit of a wildcard.
Grant Fisher recently smashed the AR in the 3000 meters, which makes him an obvious threat to win here. However, he is not known for his kick or his top-end speed. Nor has he shown a propensity to push the pace in big races. If he allows the pace to dawdle, which he probably will, I think he not only will not win but is unlikely to make the team.
Cooper Teare has run a 3:51 mile and won the USATF 1500 meters in 2022. Based on that it seems he should be capable of kicking as well as Nur and Chelimo (both of whom have mile PRs of just 3:55). Given his excellent recent performance at the USA cross country championships, I assume he will target the 5000 at the Trials rather than face Nuguse et al. in the 1500. Teare was "only" fifth in the 5000 last year (a decent performance) but I think he is fitter this year. I see him as following in the footsteps of Eamonn Coghlan and Said Aouita, former milers who went on to excel at the 5000. I like his chances of making the team. If it comes down to Teare vs Nur and Chelimo in the final 100 meters, Teare has a shot at winning outright.
Nico Young just ran a 3:57 mile at 6,900 feet altitude, indicating a new level of fitness and speed. I doubt any other 5000/10000 American runner could do right now (i.e. in January 2024) what Young just did. Whether he can convert his newfound mile speed into a 53-54 second lap at the end of a 5000 remains to be seen. I have my doubts. Also, with Young showing such sharpness in January, I worry that he is peaking prematurely.
In a slow race, I think McGorty, Blanks, and Klecker are going to struggle on the last lap. McGorty and Klecker were third and fourth, respectively, in the 5000 last year. But this year the competition will be tougher: Fisher and Young will probably both be in the race and I think Teare is more fit now than he was last year.
As of today, my picks are as follows:
1. Nur 2. Teare 3. Chelimo 4. Kincaid 5. Fisher 6. McGorty 7. Young 8. Klecker 9. Blanks
So the guy who ran 12:46 and 7:25 last year is unlikely to make the team.
That's *brilliant*.
Fisher's best 5000 time last year was 12:54 not 12:46. He ran both races in ideal conditions in rabbited races in Europe. The Trials will be different.
All Fisher has to do is run everyone into the ground but two. Simple strategy for a 12:46 guy.
It would seem like the obvious strategy. But there are plenty of reasons to believe he won't do it:
1) It will probably be warm and humid, making it difficult to run a fast pace.
2) Fisher will have already run the 10000, whereas some of these guys will focus exclusively on the 5000.
3) As noted above, there has never been a Trials 5000 under 13:22.
4) He may not be in peak condition as his major focus will be Paris. Everyone else will be focused on the Trials.
5) Everyone I've listed above is capable of running low to mid 12:50s this year. It's not going to be easy to just "run everyone into the ground but two."
1) No, in Eugene, weather hot enough to affect a 5000m, is an outlier.
2) Countless runners, including Fisher, have had success doubling back from the 10 and he won’t be the only one, anyway.
3) What’s the difference between a qualifying USATF race and the Olympic trials? Is race strategy adjusted if it’s the latter?
4) Being in peak shape for Paris, ins’t useful, if you’re not on the team.
5) Very unlikely, and not Nur, McGorty, Blanks and Young.
That will be after Grant Fisher breaks the indoor 3,000 and 5,000 meter world records.
Both those records are soft compared to the outdoor 2 mile and 5000 records. Kincaid nearly broke the indoor 5000 record last year; he finished 9th at the Trials.
It would seem like the obvious strategy. But there are plenty of reasons to believe he won't do it:
1) It will probably be warm and humid, making it difficult to run a fast pace.
2) Fisher will have already run the 10000, whereas some of these guys will focus exclusively on the 5000.
3) As noted above, there has never been a Trials 5000 under 13:22.
4) He may not be in peak condition as his major focus will be Paris. Everyone else will be focused on the Trials.
5) Everyone I've listed above is capable of running low to mid 12:50s this year. It's not going to be easy to just "run everyone into the ground but two."
1) No, in Eugene, weather hot enough to affect a 5000m, is an outlier.
2) Countless runners, including Fisher, have had success doubling back from the 10 and he won’t be the only one, anyway.
3) What’s the difference between a qualifying USATF race and the Olympic trials? Is race strategy adjusted if it’s the latter?
4) Being in peak shape for Paris, ins’t useful, if you’re not on the team.
5) Very unlikely, and not Nur, McGorty, Blanks and Young.
1) On average it's in the high 70s at the end of June in Eugene. That is warm enough to affect the race.
In Eugene during June average daily high temperatures increase from 71°F to 80°F and the fraction of time spent overcast or mostly cloudy decreases from 53% to 31%.
5) Nur, McGorty, and Blanks have all run low 13s. It won't take much to get them to the mid 12:50s. Nur and Blanks (just 21 years old) in particular seem to have a lot of upside. Young is possibly in sub-13 5000 shape right now.
This is a bold and intriguing prediction. Blanks has run a 3:56 mile and had a monster kick at the NCAA cross country championships. It would not shock me to see him make the team, but I like his chances better in the 10000.
In this thread, posters have been defining a kick as something like 53 for the last 400. Blanks’ “monster” kick at NCAA XC, was a 2:42 last 1K.
If you really want to downplay this kick then I’d add it was on grass and hilly last K which probably knocks off 5-10 seconds itself. Only best in the world are closing a 10k at 2.32/34 at end of a 10K.
We are blessed to even have this conversation with so many names. Proven runners and new talent. Very exciting indeed. WHAT IF: Mr. Naguse decides to join in after the 1500? Not a 1 trick pony for sure.
That will be after Grant Fisher breaks the indoor 3,000 and 5,000 meter world records.
Both those records are soft compared to the outdoor 2 mile and 5000 records. Kincaid nearly broke the indoor 5000 record last year; he finished 9th at the Trials.
“Soft” world records. How close would you be to them tough guy?
From reading your posts, it is clear you aren’t a Grant Fisher fan. Are you jealous?
Grant Fisher is the best distance runner in the US and our best hope to medal at the Olympics in Paris.
He along with two others will be representing the USA.
He likely went back to his college coach so he could focus on the 1500. But you’re right his better shot is complete focus on the 5k.
Jakob has the same mindset yet obviously on a completely different level. He’s obsessed with the 1500 but could win Olympic double gold in the 5k and 10k if he ditched the 1500.
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