Probably indicates sub 2:20 shape. It should be interesting if Sisson Keira or Betsy try to take it from the gun. Not many US women can run a 2:20 marathon… leaving it to the last 4 miles like Atlanta could lead to some upsets
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coahc wrote:
Marathonfan wrote:
Keira D'Amato just did a 15 mile tempo, starting from 5:20s getting down to 5:05 !! She split 70:06 for the half split. See below on Strava. Does this make her the trials favorite? Any idea how the other contender's training has been going? Discuss
Yea she is my favourite but I'm biased as I grew up in Richmond. Although its not hot in RVA now she knows how to run in heat and humidity.
You grew up in Richmond but spell "favorite" [American] as "favourite" [British]? Was it Richmond, Virginia or Richmond in London area of Ted Lasso fame?
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FlagstaffInsider37 wrote:
This may or may not be public info but there are serious doubts of whether or not Molly Seidel will run the trials. She has been complaining about a knee injury all build and has not run in 2 weeks (see her strava for proof)
she literally always has a "sticky" knee when the miles start to stack up. KT Tape is one of her sponsors and she uses it on that knee religiously. set strava to private for the trials build weeks ago... so no inside info
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Haha 28 years in Australia. At Gold coast half there was a 1st and 2nd Richmond VA connection in the women's half when Keira set the record. I think I still have a record at VCU.
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tO the giLLs, sorry man.
A Titan will fall
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Marathonfan wrote:
Keira D'Amato just did a 15 mile tempo, starting from 5:20s getting down to 5:05 !! She split 70:06 for the half split. See below on Strava. Does this make her the trials favorite? Any idea how the other contender's training has been going? Discuss
You spell it "discus", deer friend.
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Keira was already one of the favorites. Only Sisson has a faster seed time. We know she's good at time trialing but that's not what this race is so you have to think runners like Saina/Seidel/Tuliamuk will factor in up front. She's competed in the last two marathon world champs so those might be helpful experiences. Would think anything outside of the top-5 would be a disappointment for her. Her aim is to win/finish top-3.
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D'amato's yearly mileage:
2019 - 4169
2020 - 4076
2021 - 2957
Don't know about 2022 or 2023.
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Tooth Ugg Eels!
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FlagstaffInsider37 wrote:
Probably indicates sub 2:20 shape. It should be interesting if Sisson Keira or Betsy try to take it from the gun. Not many US women can run a 2:20 marathon… leaving it to the last 4 miles like Atlanta could lead to some upsets
And this is what makes the Trials so interesting. If you're a 2:20 runner and you run 2:30 pace for 22 miles you should be able to finish very strong. But then, someone who's been able to stick with the pace has the race of their lives and you're out.
I always pick 3 who I think are going to make the team and I'm generally very close (2/3 at least). But I just can't come up with names that I think will be there on that day this time.
I think there are too many.
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An ironclad rule of Letsrun: If your workout makes it to the message
board, you ran it too hard, and are cooked by the time your goal
competition arrives. So she will not make the Olympic team. She'll hang in there for 13 miles or so and then fall off the pace. And in typical runner fashion, wonder why she wasn't at her best on race day.202 -
Here's an analysis from Kevin Beck. He's written a few articles on her training at the time of her marathon record.
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Kevin Beck is a clown. Somehow his evaluation of Keira's "training return on investment" deteriorated into an anti-woke diatribe.
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Kea wrote:
runningchick wrote:
Since like years she doesn't post all her runs publicly anymore. So no runs on strava means really nothing for the chances of Molly S.
She’s been back to posting all of her workouts, races, easy runs, etc. for quite a while now.. before this sudden drop off.
True but somtimes for reasons known only to herself she stops posting. PLUS she stopped posting on Instragram a week or two earlier while still postinon Stavia. PLUS if she was injured she would probably have said so. So I think she is not posting because she just doesn't want to post. But we will never know until she says something or on the day of the race.
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FlagstaffInsider37 wrote:
Probably indicates sub 2:20 shape. It should be interesting if Sisson Keira or Betsy try to take it from the gun. Not many US women can run a 2:20 marathon… leaving it to the last 4 miles like Atlanta could lead to some upsets
Maybe. Based on the Strava video it seemed like she was working quite hard at the end of it
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agreed, I wondered if she was hurt as well. Seems she just started ramping up within the last month. She does a lot of shorter workouts (3 x 2 miles) on the track. I wondered if she was even running the trials for awhile. Looks like she just started adding some harder longer marathon work... maybe she's coming into fitness at the right time.
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Kea wrote:
I saw this and thought the same thing- she seems to be in great shape. But if you look at her weekly mileage she really cut back her training a month or two ago. Wonder if she had a niggle of sorts? But 70-80mpw seems a little low compared to some of the others who we know are running 120-130+
Interesting. Honestly, pretty likely. At this point in the cycle, pretty much everyone in the trials has some nagging injury, but it's go time. Good to see she's rounding into shape on schedule!
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It doesn’t mean anything other than she completed that workout. Many times too much stock is put into trying to forecast a marathon output based on supposed indicator workouts. Even if this did or did not show fitness compared to others, it still would mean nothing, for the race is still the race, and the indicator will be who performs best on that day.
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Peg wrote:
It doesn’t mean anything other than she completed that workout. Many times too much stock is put into trying to forecast a marathon output based on supposed indicator workouts. Even if this did or did not show fitness compared to others, it still would mean nothing, for the race is still the race, and the indicator will be who performs best on that day.
Yeah marathon “indicator” workouts are notoriously inaccurate. If you’re doing a 5K you can do something like 4 x mile and maybe get a decent idea of if you could have strung it all together. For a marathon you sometimes see people do something like 12 miles at MP thinking that’s an indicator, when in reality you’re not even halfway there
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Alexi Santana wrote:
Peg wrote:
It doesn’t mean anything other than she completed that workout. Many times too much stock is put into trying to forecast a marathon output based on supposed indicator workouts. Even if this did or did not show fitness compared to others, it still would mean nothing, for the race is still the race, and the indicator will be who performs best on that day.
Yeah marathon “indicator” workouts are notoriously inaccurate. If you’re doing a 5K you can do something like 4 x mile and maybe get a decent idea of if you could have strung it all together. For a marathon you sometimes see people do something like 12 miles at MP thinking that’s an indicator, when in reality you’re not even halfway there
ehhh... I'd say 12 miles @ MP, without tapering and running high volume, is a pretty decent indicator. What would you have someone do, run 24 miles @MP during training?
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