Who would you bet on in the Olympic 1500m next year, Jakob or the field?

I’m most concerned about Nuguse actually. I do think Jakob is really going to run away from everyone else this year. I think it will be like El Guerrouj in 1999, so it will be very valuable if someone makes Nuguse’s life more difficult like Estevez did to Ngeny in that final. I think Kerr will be in the mix but the pace might be too much and if Nordas is willing to sandbag like he did last year that bodes well for him against more aggressive runners like Kerr, Wightman, Reynold, Kipsang, Katir, Laros, Hoare, Mario and Tim who might go for the win,

jakob can close so much better than his haters give him credit for. He just doesn't believe it gives him his best chance. I honestly think if he ran on Kerr's shoulder until 175 to go, he is able to go by the same way Kerr did.

It is messy taking that chance though. if you want to run a kicker's race, you are letting 7 or 8 guys stay in until the end, and the odds of getting boxed or some other disaster tremendously increase.

I like Kerr, but he is a parasite (an intelligent one). If Jakob decided to sit back, Kerr's chances would definitely be less than they are with Jakob out front setting a pace.

Who honestly knows what a tactical race might look like. I respect Jakobs front running but his execution has to improve. He has to run 3:27-8 instead of 3:29 and create some real separation.

Have you read the thread title?

I'd bet on Jakob. He's a world-class competitor who has already proven he can beat other world-class runners.

The field.

It's hard to be that dominant for so long.

Jakob can close fine, as well as anyone if the pace is hard and he hasn't been leading for 3 laps. But Kerr wouldn't take the pace for long, it's not how he likes to run and it's not like Jakob can make him do it. He's done it when pushing for a national record, but otherwise is happy for others to take it on. Jakob's best bet if he's looking for a pacer is Kipsang or a renewed Cheruiyot.

Regardless of how the race is run, I still don't see any reason to back Jakob over the field. He'll definitely get a medal but he's not like peak Kipchoge or even peak Farah in terms of an overwhelming favourite for the win.

Jakob

This thread answers the question all by itself

It's a story when he loses, not when he wins

of course, this is obvious. if jakob doesn't take it out, nobody will. The race will be won in 3:32, and 8 guys will have a chance to win. At that point, there is no prohibitive favorite.

i would love to see what a race looks like where the field goes 60-62 pace for 700 meters, and then Jakob goes ham for the last 800, with something like a 1:46-1:47.

It would be amazing to see him to pull an Athens El G and then in the interview after him saying "you guys thought I couldn't kick?"

of course i had to go back and watch this just now. I've read about it a handful of times, but not sure I ever went back and watched. Spectacular.

I'd still bet on Jakob to win the gold.

The most baller way for him to win in the Paris final would be to go full Filbert Bayi. Run the first lap in 54 and dare the field to chase him. Hang on for the win in WR time

He closed his semi in 51 while waving to the crowd and looked like he was jogging compared to the rest of the field. That’s not even an exaggeration, watch how he glides past them on the backstretch and looks far more relaxed in the last 100m.

He’s definitely on the slower end in terms of pure 200/400 speed compared to a Wightman or a Laros , but so are Kerr and Nuguse. Funny how this board always talks about him like he’s the slowest guy by a huge margin.

Once again, these splits from the garbage world athletics site is wrong. It was closer to 53 if you go back and compare splits at the bell to where he actually was compared to others.

WA had his final lap at 50.6 when it was really 51 high/52 point. This was discussed months ago.

This is the answer. It's similar in logic to the classic "Tiger or the field" proposition in golf back in the 2000's

Just like Tiger, if Jakob is at his best he will win because in his best race nobody can beat him. But if he is just off his best - and not even by much, the odds that at least one of these contenders steps up in the moment (exactly like what has happened the last 2 WC's) is high.

The guy I'm most interesting in is Wightman. Not that Kerr, Nuguse aren't legit contenders because they are, but I'm interested in how/if Wightman can recapture that form of 22 after an entire season out.

Since I was one of the posters saying the field had a much better chance than the betting odds implied in a non-paced race, I'll stick with that position for any non-paced 1500 he runs.

The field has a great chance. I would bet the field.

I think the proposition gets tougher when half the field is thinking "We all know how to beat you" and only one of them has to for "the field" to win.

They know what he has to do, he knows they know, and he actually has to do that thing because he can't surprise them with a different strategy.

The Titan.

53 last lap, last 200 in 26 (2:42 at the bell - 3:09 w 200 to go - 3:35)

And yes, he waved to the crowd on the final bend.

As mentioned, I'd still bet on him to win. The best chance the field has is a slow pace.