14:5x
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it is just speculation wrote:
4:20 is not that fast wrote:
The running performance calculators equate 8:35 to about 14:45 for 5000m which seems about right.
Didn’t she train pretty hard while she was in college and even in HS? I doubt living and training at altitude will make much difference. The have been great runners that lived at sea level. Salazar ran his 5 and 10K ARs while living in Eugene.
It may or may not. If she adapts well to altitude, it will. Not everyone adapts and makes improvements. Odds are that it will, though. What basis do you have for saying that the hypoxia-induced erythropoietic drive that comes from training and living at altitude that would ultimately result in an increase in hemoglobin concentration and hematocrit wouldn't "make much difference"?
Elly Henes had a 15:18ish PR prior to moving and training at altitude. She's at 14:47 & 30:48 now and will likely continue to improve. Nobody can deny that altitude has not helped Monson tremendously. There are a plethora of other examples.
We will only know once she races. That's why they race.
What about Salazar? Relative to his middle distance speed, his ARs were tremendous performances. There is no way he could have been any stronger had he lived at altitude. Why has there never been a sub-8:40 by a HSer from Colorado?
We don’t how much of Monson’s improvement can be attributed to living altitude. She played basketball in HS and injured her knee. I couldn’t find any information about her training in college
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4:20 is not that fast wrote:
it is just speculation wrote:
It may or may not. If she adapts well to altitude, it will. Not everyone adapts and makes improvements. Odds are that it will, though. What basis do you have for saying that the hypoxia-induced erythropoietic drive that comes from training and living at altitude that would ultimately result in an increase in hemoglobin concentration and hematocrit wouldn't "make much difference"?
Elly Henes had a 15:18ish PR prior to moving and training at altitude. She's at 14:47 & 30:48 now and will likely continue to improve. Nobody can deny that altitude has not helped Monson tremendously. There are a plethora of other examples.
We will only know once she races. That's why they race.
What about Salazar? Relative to his middle distance speed, his ARs were tremendous performances. There is no way he could have been any stronger had he lived at altitude. Why has there never been a sub-8:40 by a HSer from Colorado?
We don’t how much of Monson’s improvement can be attributed to living altitude. She played basketball in HS and injured her knee. I couldn’t find any information about her training in college
You don't know if he would have been stronger. Your statement is a supposition. Maybe he would have been stronger, maybe he wouldn't have been stronger. There is no way to know with certainty.
As for you asking about sub-8:40 HS runners from Colorado - how many sub 8:40 3200/2 mile HS guys have there even been. Maybe 15? I really don't know. Daniel Simmons of American Fork, Utah ran 8:37ish last year, IIRC. Anyway, using HS runners to demonstrate this and using an arbitrary 8:40 as your benchmark seems a bit arbitrary. More often than not those HSers are competing at altitude and when they are not at altitude it may be at a national meet that is taking place at the end of a long season and in a race that is more tactical in nature.
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“There is no way to know with certainty.”
Exactly, and that applies to possible benefits from training at altitude.
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rbtrackfan wrote:
It seems clear to me you have a bias. The Feb 25 3000 was a slow pace with a very fast final K with no competition (2:45), and 2 days prior she anchored the DMR in 4:23, which would be roughly the 1190 score as her mile in January. Then she handily beat all comers in NCAA 3000 and 5000 in mid March. Her outdoor season was certainly not as good - especially the tail end of it.
LOL, like clockwork. No, I have no bias. You, on the other hand, are possibly the most Tuohy-biased poster on the board. Aren't you the one who registered the name "FastTuohy" while she was still 17-yo and in high school? Not only biased but kinda creepy.
I have a degree in mathematics and love numbers. They are all I look at because they have zero bias. And the numbers for Tuohy in 2023 just do not add up to much success. I am more interested in what Valby, O'Sullivan, and Wiley do since they were killing it in 2023. Wiley had five races at two different distances between June and September that scored 1212, 1205, 1180, 1180, and 1172. That is consistency and it is RECENT. Tuohy has only one race above 1140 since April. Numbers never lie and have no bias.
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unable to replicate the performance wrote:
rbtrackfan wrote:
It seems clear to me you have a bias. The Feb 25 3000 was a slow pace with a very fast final K with no competition (2:45), and 2 days prior she anchored the DMR in 4:23, which would be roughly the 1190 score as her mile in January. Then she handily beat all comers in NCAA 3000 and 5000 in mid March. Her outdoor season was certainly not as good - especially the tail end of it.
LOL, like clockwork. No, I have no bias. You, on the other hand, are possibly the most Tuohy-biased poster on the board. Aren't you the one who registered the name "FastTuohy" while she was still 17-yo and in high school? Not only biased but kinda creepy.
I have a degree in mathematics and love numbers. They are all I look at because they have zero bias. And the numbers for Tuohy in 2023 just do not add up to much success. I am more interested in what Valby, O'Sullivan, and Wiley do since they were killing it in 2023. Wiley had five races at two different distances between June and September that scored 1212, 1205, 1180, 1180, and 1172. That is consistency and it is RECENT. Tuohy has only one race above 1140 since April. Numbers never lie and have no bias.
lol "lies, dam lies, and statistics". You in my opinion were just selective in the Tuohy results you included (or did not include such as the DMR leg). Should she have blasted another sub 8:40 3000 in the ACC championship? She doesn't and yet you include that as part of her degrading performance. I am most biased I guess, but yet I acknowledge "Her outdoor season was certainly not as good - especially the tail end of it". Valby has run well but can she avoid the discontinuites in good health? O'Sullivan certainly did not have a good XC season for having the great 3000 time she posted. Yet you ignore that. Numbers can lie.
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Tuohy has been sliding backward. She trained hard through high school and college. Nothing to be upset about. She is one of the most accomplished runners ever up to this point.
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A year from now, Tuohy will not only break the womens records at every distance 1500m-marathon, but also the mens records at each of those distances.
Also, I am not astro. I swear.
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No worries. No one thought you were.
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In all seriousness, I predict 14:32
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unable to replicate the performance wrote:
Everyone focuses so much on ONE race that was 11 months ago. She hasn't done anything since. Her best races in 2023 according to WA points:
Feb 11 - 3000m - 8:35.20 - 1214
Jan 28 - mile - 4:24.26 - 1190
May 6 - 5000m - 15:03.12 - 1157
Feb 25 - 3000m - 8:51.92 - 1156
Apr 21 - 1500m - 4:08.29 - 1140
Jul 9 - 5000m - 15:15.26 - 1134
Jun 8 - 1500m - 4:09.83 - 1132
Jun 10 - 1500m - 4:11.40 - 1116Three of her four best races of the year were in Jan/Feb indoors. Everybody reaches a peak at some point and she might be near the limits of her ability. She is just as likely to run another race under 1120 points as she is run another at 1200+. She appears to be on a downswing while runners like Valby, Wiley, O'Sullivan, Markezich, Ramsden, and others are on an upswing.
I expect her pro career to be more in line with that of Dani Jones, a three-time NCAA champion who just never really seemed to develop as a pro. She's always in the race but never on the podium, except in some smaller pro meets. Never represent the US internationally except for possibly the watered-down Indoor and Cross Country teams.
You cherry pick a strong of 'poor' performance that actually provides no idea what her best effort would have been. NCAA 1500 of 4:09/4:11 in extreme heat, 15:15 at Usatf indeed disappointing, but not crazy with a 15:03 PR. All it takes is one good performance to be back on track.
Dani Jones? She still prs every year. Even though she was an NCAA champ, she really wasn't that fast when she entered pro ranks (4:10 15:17)
I don't expect Tuohy to magically run 14:30, but 4:05/14:50 certainly attainable during pro season 2024.
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Dani Jones was average HS runner. She made 10x the improvement of Tuohy in college similar to Schweizer or Monson or Frerichs. Teen phenoms fizzle out.
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15:09
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tuohy is a quitter wrote:
Dani Jones was average HS runner. She made 10x the improvement of Tuohy in college similar to Schweizer or Monson or Frerichs. Teen phenoms fizzle out.
Ha ha you continue to find new ways to demonstrate how uninformed or dumb you are. Dani was 3rd in 2014 NXN. Take a look who she beat. 4:39.9 in the mile in hs. Hard to call that "average".
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Why do you think she’d be able to run 8:40 solo? She was dragged to 8:35 in a pro race on a fast track
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Moran - wrote:
Why do you think she’d be able to run 8:40 solo? She was dragged to 8:35 in a pro race on a fast track
My point was she did not even try. Yet this is apparently part of the evidence of declining performances.
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Now that she is a pro she will only race once a year. Hopefully that one race is a 5000 and she isn’t sick for it.
I’ll go with 14:44 if she is healthy this year and races a 5000.
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tuohy is a quitter wrote:
Dani Jones was average HS runner. She made 10x the improvement of Tuohy in college similar to Schweizer or Monson or Frerichs. Teen phenoms fizzle out.
You seem like a loser. Your moniker gives a clue to that.
Somehow I feel like it would give you some sort of twisted pleasure if Tuohy were to fizzle out. That’s just the sort of loser that you are.
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curious what altitude training does for her. Elly Henes, Krissy Gear, NIkki Hiltz have all improved since training in Flagstaff.
that said, it's not a guarantee fix. it can take a long time to see benefits. in fact it can even set you back for awhile. Luis Grivalda said in interviews it took a year before he adjusted. it took Nico Young awhile too. he went to NAU during Covid so had a lot longer time to train and adjust before competing. but he struggled with it at first.
we'll see.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.10 -
future improvement wrote:
You cherry pick a strong of 'poor' performance that actually provides no idea what her best effort would have been. NCAA 1500 of 4:09/4:11 in extreme heat, 15:15 at Usatf indeed disappointing, but not crazy with a 15:03 PR. All it takes is one good performance to be back on track.
Did you not read what I wrote? Those were her BEST eight performances of 2023. If anything, I "cherry picked" only her best and none of her worst. Feel free to look up the numbers yourself.
https://www.tfrrs.org/athletes/7704053/North_Carolina_St/Katelyn_Tuohy.html
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