Last year was Rocky’s first time in program history putting 6 guys under 10 minutes and they were coming off of an XC season where they were arguably a Top 10 team Nationally. So you predicting that all those schools will suddenly do it in the same spring is more than bold. I love seeing Idaho improve, but come on….look at the track record of some of those programs, having more then 1-2 guys break 10 would be awesome for them.
Eagle was the 6th place team at the state meet… Their Hoka-
9:25, 9:47, 9:51, 10:10, 10:11, 10:15.
That’s not a crazy prediction for that team. It would stand to reason that if Eagle could do it, so could MV and Boise.
Centennial has 3 guys that broke it last year, a guy that ran 4:15 and low 15’s when healthy, a guy that ran 4:23 and a sophomore that was better than their 3 sub 10 guys, as well as a guy that ran low 10’s.
That prediction seems not crazy if people all put it together, but that depends on health and training.
Eagle was the 6th place team at the state meet… Their Hoka-
9:25, 9:47, 9:51, 10:10, 10:11, 10:15.
That’s not a crazy prediction for that team. It would stand to reason that if Eagle could do it, so could MV and Boise.
Centennial has 3 guys that broke it last year, a guy that ran 4:15 and low 15’s when healthy, a guy that ran 4:23 and a sophomore that was better than their 3 sub 10 guys, as well as a guy that ran low 10’s.
That prediction seems not crazy if people all put it together, but that depends on health and training.
Eagle’s most sub 10 in one track season is 3 (2012 and 2019).
Mt. View’s most sub 10 in one track season is 2 (2015, 2018, and 2023)
Centennial’s most sub 10 in one track season is 3 (2023)
Let’s make history! The District Standard is usually 10:20….what’s our guess on how many boys at least hit the qualifier (even though they may choose to not run the event at districts)? If we have 5 schools (Boise, Rocky, Eagle, Mt. View, Centennial) all with at least 6 boys sub 10, we might have 60+ boys in the district under 10:20.
Eagle was the 6th place team at the state meet… Their Hoka-
9:25, 9:47, 9:51, 10:10, 10:11, 10:15.
That’s not a crazy prediction for that team. It would stand to reason that if Eagle could do it, so could MV and Boise.
Centennial has 3 guys that broke it last year, a guy that ran 4:15 and low 15’s when healthy, a guy that ran 4:23 and a sophomore that was better than their 3 sub 10 guys, as well as a guy that ran low 10’s.
That prediction seems not crazy if people all put it together, but that depends on health and training.
Eagle’s most sub 10 in one track season is 3 (2012 and 2019).
Mt. View’s most sub 10 in one track season is 2 (2015, 2018, and 2023)
Centennial’s most sub 10 in one track season is 3 (2023)
Let’s make history! The District Standard is usually 10:20….what’s our guess on how many boys at least hit the qualifier (even though they may choose to not run the event at districts)? If we have 5 schools (Boise, Rocky, Eagle, Mt. View, Centennial) all with at least 6 boys sub 10, we might have 60+ boys in the district under 10:20.
Eagle also has a new coach. Not sure that what they’ve done in the past is relevant, as evidenced by having 3 boys sub 10 on the same day this fall, and 3 more at 10:15 or faster. The boys that ran 10:10 and 10:11 were 10:37 and 11:02 boys in the spring. Either of those guys cracking 10 wouldn’t be insane given their current progression.
Centennial had the guys to do it last year, but 3 guys didn’t run the 3200 that could have. They also have a new coach, but had the injury bug this fall.
Mountain View doesn’t really appear to race the 3200m much… but, they do bring a guy that ran 15:52 at Firman, Ben Jensen, a 10:15 freshman, a boy that ran 16:36 at Firman, a boy that was 23rd at state cross, and a boy that ran 16:51 in his first season of running, beating boys from Rocky that have run sub 10:10 in the process.
I can 100% see the case for each of those schools having 6 guys break 10. The biggest issue with the 3200 is racing it enough if you are a guy that’s on the cusp of breaking 10. It’s not some insane feat to break 10, and the event that is getting the deepest the fastest in Idaho is the 3200m.
We already have 33 returning boys that ran the districts mark last year and 17 returning sub 10 boys. There’s an additional 15 boys that ran within 20 seconds of it last year. 60 boys seems like it’s a very real possibility with maybe as many as 40 breaking 10.
Last year had 25 boys break 10 and 46 get the mark. Guys that broke 10 in their HOKA races but not last track season are Pierce Richardson, Samuel Jensen, and Thomas Stevens. Guys that ran the district mark that didn’t last season are Porter Carlson, Matt Ball, Jaymon Clark, Jackson Porter, and Nate Collins. That puts us at 20 guys already under sub 10 and 38 boys sub 10:20. Can we find another 22+ boys sub 10:20 and another 20 sub 10 boys?
It wouldn’t shock me. Between Orton, Riley, Vandahlen, Sawyer Jensen, Luke Bruce, Hunter Marlatt, McOmber, Blaser, the sub 10:15 Rocky boys, Eagle’s 3 other guys… District III absolutely has the potential to be crazy. The 3200m at any meet with more than 2 teams has the potential to be pretty good if guys are willing to make it that way.
After looking, I have 7 Rocky boys, 7 Boise, 4 MV, 3 Eagle, 3 Centennial. For boys that have run at least 150, which is equivalent to the district mark, we had 46 at the district meet alone, and another 14 that I can easily count that had run it at some point that year.
22 boys hit 160 at the district meet. There are an additional 12 boys that have run that at some point this season that are easily counted. So 40 and 60 isn’t unreasonable.
Eagle’s most sub 10 in one track season is 3 (2012 and 2019).
Mt. View’s most sub 10 in one track season is 2 (2015, 2018, and 2023)
Centennial’s most sub 10 in one track season is 3 (2023)
Let’s make history! The District Standard is usually 10:20….what’s our guess on how many boys at least hit the qualifier (even though they may choose to not run the event at districts)? If we have 5 schools (Boise, Rocky, Eagle, Mt. View, Centennial) all with at least 6 boys sub 10, we might have 60+ boys in the district under 10:20.
Eagle also has a new coach. Not sure that what they’ve done in the past is relevant, as evidenced by having 3 boys sub 10 on the same day this fall, and 3 more at 10:15 or faster. The boys that ran 10:10 and 10:11 were 10:37 and 11:02 boys in the spring. Either of those guys cracking 10 wouldn’t be insane given their current progression.
Centennial had the guys to do it last year, but 3 guys didn’t run the 3200 that could have. They also have a new coach, but had the injury bug this fall.
Mountain View doesn’t really appear to race the 3200m much… but, they do bring a guy that ran 15:52 at Firman, Ben Jensen, a 10:15 freshman, a boy that ran 16:36 at Firman, a boy that was 23rd at state cross, and a boy that ran 16:51 in his first season of running, beating boys from Rocky that have run sub 10:10 in the process.
I can 100% see the case for each of those schools having 6 guys break 10. The biggest issue with the 3200 is racing it enough if you are a guy that’s on the cusp of breaking 10. It’s not some insane feat to break 10, and the event that is getting the deepest the fastest in Idaho is the 3200m.
We already have 33 returning boys that ran the districts mark last year and 17 returning sub 10 boys. There’s an additional 15 boys that ran within 20 seconds of it last year. 60 boys seems like it’s a very real possibility with maybe as many as 40 breaking 10.
Last year had 25 boys break 10 and 46 get the mark. Guys that broke 10 in their HOKA races but not last track season are Pierce Richardson, Samuel Jensen, and Thomas Stevens. Guys that ran the district mark that didn’t last season are Porter Carlson, Matt Ball, Jaymon Clark, Jackson Porter, and Nate Collins. That puts us at 20 guys already under sub 10 and 38 boys sub 10:20. Can we find another 22+ boys sub 10:20 and another 20 sub 10 boys?
It wouldn’t shock me. Between Orton, Riley, Vandahlen, Sawyer Jensen, Luke Bruce, Hunter Marlatt, McOmber, Blaser, the sub 10:15 Rocky boys, Eagle’s 3 other guys… District III absolutely has the potential to be crazy. The 3200m at any meet with more than 2 teams has the potential to be pretty good if guys are willing to make it that way.
Exactly. It's a bold prediction, but not crazy if you actually look at how good the district and state is getting. Any quad meet should be able to have a good 3200m. The big barrier to breaking 10 is getting a good field and that won't be as much of an issue. Besides, any one of MV, Rocky, Boise, Eagle, and Centennial can make a good 3200m just on their own.
My bold prediction for the 3200m is that 5A District III sees 8 girls sub 11, and at least 20 sub 11:30. A sub 11 3200m is equivalent to a 129 speed rating, an 11:30 is equivalent to a 113. Boise, Rocky, Timberline, and Mountain View (If Chitwood runs it- if not, they will only have 2) will have at least 3 sub 11:30 runners each. Eagle, Owyhee, and Capital could all have 2 or 3.
And in line with the guys, you won't in the conversation for a trophy in 5A next year if you aren't returning 5 sub 12 girls with at least 2 sub 11:30 and 3 sub 11:45. Those would be representative of at least 113, 113, 105, 97, 97 speed ratings.
I mean it when I say that 5A is turning into an arms race.
The boys marks I outlined are having 2 sub 9:45 guys and 3 more sub 10:10 guys.
Those are at least 168, 168, 155, 155, 155 speed ratings (160.2 average). I think that that's a fair estimation of what it will take to trophy moving forward. Mountain View had 170, 165, 161, 157, 155 at the state meet, with a 170+ guy having a very bad day. They had a 161.6 average.
Highland got 5th with a 172, 165, 160, 157, 152. Eagle got 6th mainly because they were not good at 4 and 5 at state (really struggled with a 5 all season), and they had a top 3 with 187, 168, 165. Had they had two 150's, they would have barely beat MV.
Considering that the bench mark to be in the conversation for contention for an NXN spot is averaging 170, I think we're rapidly heading to a point where Idaho teams should reasonably have the expectation that we will have an outside shot of having 4 teams in the top 10 and should absolutely expect 3 teams in the top 10 each year.
So for any coach reading this, better have a strong off-season training culture. The thing that happens with stuff like this is that kids rise to the challenge and train more consistently, do more volume, eat better, etc, and coaches have to improve as well. I don’t think this trend is going away.
I don't think we are all that far away from seeing a team needing to have 5 returning sub 10 boys to be a trophy team, maybe as quick as next year.
As it stands, CDA, Rocky, and Boise look like they could all be doing that. Mountain View might be returning that many next year. Centennial has Drew Donahue, Levi Hymas, Arnulfo (Zangel) Romero, Sawyer Jensen that could all break 10 this year, and a 10:28 sophomore from last year.
Timberline might have 5 or 6 guys break 10 as well. Ihmels, Marlatt, Evan Jones, Nick Janecko, Royal Colley, and Joey Bean (he ran 10:08 last year and was their #5 or 6 in cross). They lose 2 of their top 7.
Eagle could have 3 guys returning that break 10 but look like they might be in the same situation this year as last- okay at 4 but no 5. Highland is returning guys that went 16:09, 16:26, 16:57, 17:06 17:07, 17:22, 17:23 on the Bob Conley/State course. That's 8 teams that could have 3 or more returning sub 10 boys. I'm guessing Highland will return 2 that break 10 and 4 or 5 that break 10:20, though.
There were 3 boys that did not have sub 10 PR's in the top 20 at state this year- Rietze (ran 10:00 as a freshman last year), Bowen Brendle, who has run 4:25, and Payton Bird, who has run faster pace for 5k than his 3200m PR. It's a changing landscape in Idaho and I think that defining what is possible in the way of depth based on what Rocky has done is the wrong way of looking at it.
I'm really excited to see what happens over the next 2 or 3 years.
As an aside, in 2019, Rocky had 5 boys run sub 10 in the 3200m and a 6th that ran 10:00 as a freshman in early April- he didn't run another 3200m until districts. They certainly could have done it that year if that 10:00 freshman ran another 3200m in that 1 month span.
I think that if the 5 local schools that I mentioned decide that they want to actually set up races to do it, it won't be as insane as it sounds. Like if Rocky decides they are going to knock out 15 district qualifiers in the first race, they absolutely could load up a 3200m and have Landon, Hyrum, and Cody go run 9:50-9:55 pace and lead 6 or 7 guys to sub 10 and a bunch more to sub 10:20.
If they decide they are going to split guys between the 800, 1600, and 3200 every meet then the likelihood they get as many guys to break 10 goes way down. If you are one of those teams, you can set up all the conditions for your guys to run fast if you want.
To me, there's a big pool of people that can qualify and who does in each event depends on who decides to try to triple or what combo they do. I think it's easier to outline who the essentially locks are, strong chances (like greater than 50/50), and outside chances. I'll do guys and then girls a bit later today. These aren't in a particular order.
3200m: Locks: Heemeyer, Ringert, Lucas, Sheesley Guys that are locks IF they run it: Stadtlander, Kemper, Helder Strong: Tuft, S. Jensen, Antonnen Outside: Ihmels, Burdick, Taggart, Hymas, Donahue, Dodds, Richardson, Kurtz, Thomas, B. Jensen
The 3200m is an interesting case where guys who qualified last year have been leaped by guys like Antonnen, Tuft, and Sam Jensen. Maybe Burdick and Ihmels are closer to the strong side of things and are if Stadtlander, Kemper, and Helder don't run the 3200m.
The 800 is a crap shoot this year. There are a lot of girls close to each other, and bad positioning isn't something that I think anyone other than Bruce or Heywood can overcome. I don't have Sammy Smith in my rankings at all because I'm not sure she is actually running track. If she does, I think she's a lock at any event she runs.
Ihmels in the 1600 is interesting. I think her experience so far has been dominating races, and there's the possibility that she could struggle with race positioning to the degree that she doesn't qualify or it's at least at risk. It wouldn't surprise me if she won districts and state, and it wouldn't surprise me if she failed to qualify out of the district meet. I do think she's pretty much a lock, but crazier things have happened.
Bonus 4x800:
Boise, Rocky, Mountain View, Owyhee, Timberline, Eagle. Same as the top 6 teams at districts cross, but I think that Capital is closer to Eagle than Eagle is to any of the other teams, unless they can get their early season #3 from cross back to form.
Unfortunately, I think the gap between the top half of the district and the bottom half is growing.
Give me predictions for qualifiers from the other Districts 800/1600/3200. North is interesting because they will get 3 qualifiers in each event, but CDA had 6-7 boys running at a very high level in XC...
I'll go Max CS, Rietze, Carr in the 3200, May, Max CS, King in the 1600, and May, King, Max CS in the 800.
Zack CS's best chance at state is in the 3200, but has to beat Rietze and Carr who seemed to beat him often down the stretch in XC.