No way Lokedi gets a bib in place of Ruth or Peres
Chepngetich is flaky, DNFs in Tokyo and Eugene. I think it's 50/50 she blows up on that Paris course, probably after going out way too hard. She's run good times but she's a poor racer for someone of her talent
I don't think Ngugi has any chance at the team right now. As underrated as she is, she's still not on the level of Kosgei, Jepchirchir, Obiri, and Chepngetich, and I think Lokedi is well ahead of her right now as well.
I do think it's pretty underdiscussed how fit Kosgei must be right now. She finished just 12 seconds off the podium in NYC and then ran 2:19:15 40 days later. That's incredibly impressive; I think she probably could have run 3-4 minutes faster if she hadn't ran NYC. For me right now it's a tossup between Kosgei and Chepngetich for the 3rd slot. They've both won medals at global championships, and while Kosgei won silver to Ruth's gold, she faced a much stronger field. And when she's healthy she tends to run much smarter races on the circuit and she's never dropped out of a championship, whereas Ruth DNFed both Tokyo and Eugene.
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