The course is not hilly. They abandoned the back part of the course years ago.
I am confused why people are downvoting this? The largest hill on the course is only 25 feet. The course was realigned 10ish years ago.
The insidious thing about the Panorama Farms course is the steep cambers around a lot of the turns, sloping the curve downward to the outside radius. There is significant camber (essentially running on the side of a slope) even on some straightaways. Courses with these types of camber are deceptively difficult and can contribute to injuries.
This course would typically favor a shorter, compact, athletic athlete (Tuohy) over a taller athlete (Valby).
Here is a video of the full course. Notice how Tuohy snags the tangents. You can see the course’s hills starting at timestamp 13:30 (11:10 into the race).
I think the unrelenting cambers are a worse challenge than the hills. If it’s cold with frost on the ground, the course will be even more treacherous.
Notice starting at timestamp ~11:45 (9:22 into the race) where Markezich has the inside tangent. Then Tuohy looks back over her shoulder, the camera cuts away, and when the camera close-up returns, we see Tuohy stutter-stepping (9:32 into the race) to avoid tripping-contact with Markezich. (Some particular runners would have likely tripped the front-runner in that situation, purposely or not.)
This proves nothing, but does show how close this can be all the way thru #7.
On Tyynismaa and Bush. AT is a freak prodigy who has been third at NCAA. A week ago she wasn't even running, now she is right there. Bush is a 2x all- American. Similarly, Ruby Smee has upside. If any of these 3 can pop at nats vs conference, they can be the MVP for the winner.
Missoula is at 3,200 feet so consider that and the fact NAU swept 1-7
Also the weather at Big Sky was garbo with snow conditions. Give them clean weather at <1000 ft elevation and I think they shave off a few seconds for sure
Totally agree! What a bummer to remove the "good" part of the course. The hills, bridges, and trees made this course awesome. It would be a trash course if you just circled the open field as they are apparently doing now.
However, still having trouble seeing my way past the aforementioned Big-4 to other teams contending for the podium.
I'll take your big 4. Funny how the lrc pundits didn't see much with BYU and OSU early in the season. OSU can still really use Hentemann. If BYU or OSU falter, I still think teams like Stanford, Wash, Georgetown, Florida, Oregon and even still CU can surprise. Like Bush, Tyynismaa and Spee, there are plenty of other 'off form' stars like Hutchins, Dudek, Covert and Donahue who can bring a lot of upside if they find some magic at nats. All of these longshot teams I mention now surprisingly have 5 decent runners, they just need to all perform great to do well.
This proves nothing, but does show how close this can be all the way thru #7.
On Tyynismaa and Bush. AT is a freak prodigy who has been third at NCAA. A week ago she wasn't even running, now she is right there. Bush is a 2x all- American. Similarly, Ruby Smee has upside. If any of these 3 can pop at nats vs conference, they can be the MVP for the winner.
TSR now has Georgetown 3, BYU 4, FL 5, Stanford 6, OSU 7. Even if OSU runs with same lineup as Big 12 I'd put them and Georgetown close for 5 and 6, and FL/BYU close for 3 and 4. Insert Lagat or Hentemann puts them in race for 3rd. I think I have WA ahead of Stanford at this point.
The first 3 are accurate . . . but 4 & 5 need to be reversed.
Coaches still not willing to admit their mistake . . . moving OK State from 3rd to 6th a couple weeks back . . . simply because the team chose not to compete at Nuttycombe or Pre-Nats.
At least they now recognize how good BYU has been all season and has rewarded the team accordingly.
By losing to BYU by only 4 points on a neutral course at Big-12s, OK State now deserves the #4 ranking.
Georgetown, with its 3rd place at Nuttycombe and now an easy win at Big East, deserves to be ranked ahead of WA, Stanford, FL, AR, Notre Dame, and all the rest . . . but not ahead of OK State.
At this point . . . post-conference, pre-regionals . . . the most solid of the Big-4 appear to be NAU and BYU . . . because of their quality depth . . . each team has at least 10 runners who could make top-7 on any other team in the country . . . and, have been injury free all season.
OK State may have the best upfront trio . . . and is strong at the back end . . . but not like what NAU & BYU have.
NC State is the team still facing questions about its lineup . . . because of injuries . . . however, if those injuries are put in the rear view mirror at regionals . . . then NC State will have as rock-solid a top-7 as NAU & BYU . . . as well as the best #1 runner.
If any of the Big-4 crashes and burns at NCAAs . . . somehow, this always seems to happen . . . then, yes, one of Georgetown, WA, FL, Stanford, etc. will be there to pick up the crumbs and claim a podium spot.
If any of the Big-4 crashes and burns at NCAAs . . . somehow, this always seems to happen . . . then, yes, one of Georgetown, WA, FL, Stanford, etc. will be there to pick up the crumbs and claim a podium spot.
Obviously, depth is nice to accommodate any uncertainties. But in the final tally, only the top five team members score.
If as you say Georgetown does NOT “crash and burn”, they would likely still fall off the podium (top 3) because Florida’s top 5, at this time, appear to be stronger than Georgetown’s top 5.
If as you say Georgetown does NOT “crash and burn”, they would likely still fall off the podium (top 3) because Florida’s top 5, at this time, appear to be stronger than Georgetown’s top 5.
That statement is based upon Nuttycombe, where Florida went head-to-head with Georgetown, and then subsequent data from conference championships.
We don’t currently have head-to-head info between Florida and BYU and OKState. There is LACCTIC, which makes an attempt to compare runners/teams, which would seem to be at least as sensible as a ‘coaches’ poll’, no?
There is LACCTIC, which makes an attempt to compare runners/teams, which would seem to be at least as sensible as a ‘coaches’ poll’, no?
Ripped from a different thread, here is the cross-country scoring of LACCTIC’s current ranking of the athletes: #1 NAU 121 (5-23-26-28-45) #2 Florida 188 (1-10-12-64-101) #3 NCState199 (2-6-32-75-84) #4 OKState263 (17-24-40-71-111) #5 BYU 265 (22-43-49-53-98)
There is LACCTIC, which makes an attempt to compare runners/teams, which would seem to be at least as sensible as a ‘coaches’ poll’, no?
Ripped from a different thread, here is the cross-country scoring of LACCTIC’s current ranking of the athletes: #1 NAU 121 (5-23-26-28-45) #2 Florida 188 (1-10-12-64-101) #3 NCState199 (2-6-32-75-84) #4 OKState263 (17-24-40-71-111) #5 BYU 265 (22-43-49-53-98)
LACCTIC is based on average rating I think. Mazza-Downie does not appear at full strength, while Bush seems to be much better than her average, hence I flip 2 and 3. Per above I think the next 3 are very close.
There is LACCTIC, which makes an attempt to compare runners/teams, which would seem to be at least as sensible as a ‘coaches’ poll’, no?
Ripped from a different thread, here is the cross-country scoring of LACCTIC’s current ranking of the athletes: #1 NAU 121 (5-23-26-28-45) #2 Florida 188 (1-10-12-64-101) #3 NCState199 (2-6-32-75-84) #4 OKState263 (17-24-40-71-111) #5 BYU 265 (22-43-49-53-98)
Well, since you asked . . . "as sensible?" . . . yes . . . since both got 3 out of 4 correct.
Exchange #2 for #5 . . . then all will be right in xc world.
Reason:
At Nuttycombe . . . 2/NC State 95 . . . 5/FL 262 .. . NC State missing 2 top runners . . . FL missing 1 top runner . . . both teams now significantly better at their conference meets . . . and NC State still significantly better than FL.
When using computer algorithms, you need to make sure your if-then-else statements don't compile into infinite do-loops . . . and there is definitely something loopy about that list . . .
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