Why? Valby won head to head at Nuttycombe and although as I have been saying all along that people were seriously overestimating her competition in the SEC, she looked very good yesterday. All the pressure is on her. :)
Olemomoi was 8th at Joe Piane. She won at the Crimson Classic but I did not see it. My guess is she was running tempo with her teammate. But there is nothing to indicate that she is the same runner from last season to now. That is very common in college running.
When Valby actually runs 20-30 seconds faster, then that will be something tangible. But these conversion efforts and trying to compare gaps season to season are imho pointless.
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
Agree to a point. But until Nuttycombe, Tuohy has defeated her every single time they have lines up, including doubling off the 1500 at Regionals. And there is a context for this season based on how Tuohy finished the NCAA season last year wearing down. People are speculating that Valby is supposedly 20-30 seconds faster in the 5000m than last year but I do not see it. We are falling into last year's trap.
Olemomoi was 8th at Joe Piane. She won at the Crimson Classic but I did not see it. My guess is she was running tempo with her teammate. But there is nothing to indicate that she is the same runner from last season to now. That is very common in college running.
When Valby actually runs 20-30 seconds faster, then that will be something tangible. But these conversion efforts and trying to compare gaps season to season are imho pointless.
Is breaking the course record at Nuttycombe while running in cold, windy, rainy, and muddy conditions not tangible?
Valby did it last season. And lost when it counted. Funny thing is I think if she ran Nuttycombe last year she might have won also. I think Valby has the ability to maintain a very high level even with injuries based on her training. But I also think we have seen her best shot.
The main data point we have is Nuttycombe. Based on my sense of where Tuohy was training wise and the fact that I also thought she conceded the race once she saw Valby get the gap and realized Valby was going to take it, I would say she could have kept it closer. Tuohy finished very strong, which suggested that she had more in the tank whereas I thought Valby went hard, which is her only speed. The inside info we had at the beginning if the season was that Tuohy would not run until ACCs, and that they were trying to taper her training to avoid a late season breakdown, so I think she was ahead of schedule. Plus Valby went super hard yesterday as well. How many of those redline efforts does an athlete have? Valby trains superintense. I do not buy the theory that she is suddenly 20-30 seconds faster than last year in the 5000m. The counterpoint is whether Tuohy can reach last year's level again. Also like Tuohy in Outdoor last season, an athlete can look unbeatable until they suddenly aren't. At Nationals I think the gap will have closed and Tuohy will be willing to redline. And it is a course she has crushed before.
So I would say, assuming everyone comes in healthy, that Valby is the favorite but I think Tuohy will pull it out. We will know more after Regionals.
You talk about Tuhoy "redlining" it but after the race, and after she loses by 22 seconds, you will, as always, talk about Tuhoy just coasting and saving it for nationals. In no race have you ever said Tuhoy gave it all. She is always coasting, taking it easy, holding back, etc.
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Valby running in the low 14:40’s in 2024 Outdoors is certainly a plausibility.
That would be a big step as the pace for that is very very close to her current 3000 m pr which she ran in February of this year
If you recall, the observant onlookers (moi was one of them) that watched that Indoors race said she looked a bit pained in that race, as if something was off in her lower extremities. Sure enough, she suffered an injury through the Spring of 2022, the ramifications of which extended into Outdoors.
We found out later from Valby that she actually tweaked something outdoors soon after the conclusion of the 2022 cross-country season.
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