Kiptum vs Ingebrigtsen any distance

Certainly at the moment this is 100% true. However, are you sure that Jakob will never be able to run sub 2:01? The odds are very against it, but nobody knows for sure yet. Let’s see what Jakob can do at 10000 and the the half marathon before ruling this out as a joke. Jakob says he wants ALL the distance world records. He probably did say this in jest, but only sort of. Sounds like someday he will run the marathon before his competitive career is over and I wouldn’t put anything past him.

To embellish a bit more, what would you have said the odds were that Kipchoge would run 2:01 back in 2010? In 2019 if somebody asked if Hassan would run 2:13, you would have thought this was a joke, right?

I would bet everything that Jakob will never run sub-2:01. To me it honestly is a joke. He’s about 6’1”, 163 pounds. This matters. The Kipchoge question would have seemed silly in large part because I couldn’t have foreseen the advent of super shoes, sure. The Hassan/2:13 question honestly wouldn’t have seemed out there at the end of 2019, after Hassan had won 10k gold with a 3:59 last 1500, and after Kosgei had run 2:14:04 with suboptimal pacing. Plus, she’s extremely thin and light.

It’s true that nobody knows for sure that Jakob won’t run a 2:00 marathon one day, just like nobody knows for sure that Athing Mu won’t run a 14:00 5k. Can’t argue with that.

I'd be more interested to see them square off in a HM. You'd still have your money on Kiptum, but would be fun to see how Jakob would do. A 10K road race, you'd probably say advantage Jakob because we've seen that some of the strongest guys (Kiptum, Sawe, Kandie) might be more in the 26:45-55 range and they're able to convert that to sub-58 HMs. But Jakob will always have the ability to hang on on the track, maybe he could be broken on the roads though I doubt it unless you get in the sub 26:40 range at least.

It wouldn’t be close in the HM. Kiptum undoubtedly has the fitness and talent to approach 57:00. Jakob’s best distance is probably 3000m and somewhere between 5 and 10000m,he would drop a level in competitiveness.

Here is where the Jakob fanboys like AwsiDodger lose credibility:

Nobody in history has been a 3:27 guy and simultaneously had the ability to be a world beater even in the half marathon, much less the marathon. Probably the closest we know of is Mo Farah who did run 3:28 and had some serious ability at the half marathon. Mo ran 59:32, which was very good and pre super shoes, but not the best we have seen. If one were to put the over/under for Jakob in the half marathon this year, maybe 59:00 would be a good number. Like maybe Jakob could run around 59:00, possibly a little faster. Well if KK is running 1:00:48 and then 59:47 as his marathon splits, his over/under might be 58:00. So it would be shocking if Jakob were anywhere near KK at the end of a half marathon.

If not for sifan’s run in Chicago I’d say between 10km and 10miles, but she’s redefined what an aerobic/threshold focused track athlete can do in the longer distances even with little specific training.

Given that Jakob’s been running loads of threshold and good volume, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see them coming close in a half marathon.

Gjert claimed that Jakob could run 59:XX when he was 17 years old. What could he lay down nowadays?

I would put the over/under at 58:15 for Jakob in the half without specific training given that Kejelcha can run 58:32 and Gressier 59:46 with 1500-5k training. Kiptum is probably faster than that in a rabitted race but 1vs1 I would go with jakob since Kiptum would have to push the pace the whole race.

He’s 163 when training mid D and that’s it? I’d like to see his trajectory as the distance increases. Equating his chances to Mu’s in the 1500 is unfair as we have already seen her leveling/dipping abilities in the 1500. You cannot certainly state with confidence Jakob’s ceiling in the 5000 or 1000 and probably not the HM either. Yes, the marathon is very likely a bridge too far, but Jakob is an aerobic monster with a low 02 cost of running. Based on the breaking 2 data, marathon performance is best predicted by dividing the V̇O2 measured at LT in ml/kg/min by the O2 cost of submaximal running in ml/kg/km. Do we know Jakob’s values?

But does it really make sense to assume that Jakob can run a half marathon faster than Kejelcha? Kejelcha is not as fast at 1500m as Jakob but he is arguably as fast as Jakob at 5000m as we really don’t have strong evidence that Jakob can run faster than 12:41, despite the fact that Jakob owns him in slower championship races. So it would stand to reason that Kejelcha, if anything, is going to fare better against Jakob as the distance increases.

Kejecha ran 3:31.25 indoors and is the current WR holder in the indoor mile. Jakob's WR is 3:30.6. I think they are very similar in terms of range, Jakob being a bit better at everything. I also would'nt be suprised if Kejelcha runs 58:10 next time.

We’ll see in Valencia