Can Jakob or Nuguse break the 1000m WR of 2:11.66?

Laros if he can pass the bar

Marco/Winyonyi/2 Alg/at least 5 potential others names I forgot about.

We can speak. Not because he a blond, tall and sexy Dutch we shall make him a king before his time.

The best runners are necessarily some photogenic stars.

I am a bit surprised that you find Laros sexy, but I was not aware that this was germane to the conversation.

Makhloufi had a very good shot to break it. He did a workout in 1:44 and then I forget the exact other intervals but they were all at 52 second 400m pace, e.g. 65/52/39? and soon after ran 2:13.09 with too slow pacing that blew his shot at the record.

The 1K record is 2:11.96 (not 2:11.66) and is weak relative to the 800 and 1500 because a linear interpolation of 1:40.91 and 3:26 yields 2:10.94, but the time (y) vs. distance (x) curve is necessarily convex, so the 1K time predicted by 800 and 1500 is less than the linearly interpolated 2:10.94.

Arop is great. His hard work means he can do anything he sets his mind to.

One of the problems with running a really fast 1000m is that it is rarely run, so guys don't know how to pace it. If they had a season of running it in place of 800s or 1500s, more guys would run 2:13.xx. Faster than that is really high quality running. The current record is not weak, but both Ngeny and Coe split 1:44.6 at 800m and they ended up with average paces of 1:45.57 and 1:45.75 respectively. With excellent rabbits and an 800 split of around 1:45.00 they probably could have run a little faster, but not much. Obviously, Ngeny's 800 split indicates that he could have run a much faster 800m than his best time indicates.

Laros' 800m best of 1:44.78 is very good, but without knowing what kind of 400m ability he has, it's difficult to predict whether he will run much faster. Some runners reach their limit at shorter distances quite early. He might run 2 seconds faster, but he might only get to low 1:44 (still excellent for a 1500 guy).

Arop ran 2:14.35 last year and he split just over 51 at 400m and 145.46 at 800m. He was tasked as the pace maker in this race, so he went out really hard, but he decided to finish. Probably hitting 1:46 with 52.5, 53.5 splits, would set him up to run 2:13. He's also fitter this year than last. I could see him threatening Cram's time of 2:12.88 with the perfect race, but he may not have the longer distance strength to threaten the record.

Fair take. Requires pretty good speed and mile endurance. Arop doesn't have the latter (nor did Rudisha). Ngeny,, Coe and Cram did have the specific endurance, but not 5000m endurance (like many of today's 1500m runners).

Ok well that’s blatantly false: Kipsang, Laros, Gourley and Habz have all run under 1:45, three of them this year, with Habz at 3:29.3/1:43.9. And there are several others who are capable if they raced a couple 800s in peak form, but that’s at least debatable.

Wightman??

Abel Kipsang?

Was he in the 2023 WC final??

He ran 1:44.6 hand timed in Botswana this year. Admittedly his FAT PB is “only” 1:45.14.

Yes, there wasn't any other Kipsang in the final. What's your point?

He ran that entire race in lane 2 too. He is probably the top prospect among current 1500m men outside of a healthy Wightman.

Stop hijacking threads.

Do you have an opinion regarding Y Nuguse racing sub-2:12 1000m?

Do you have an opinion regarding J Ingebrigtsen racing sub-2:12 1000m?

You need to concentrate. If I move slightly away from Y Nuguse & J Ingebrigtsen to make a point, next thing a 1/2 dozen of you want to debate me on an issue not related to O.P.'s topic. Move along.

Your point about Abel Kipsang?

Nuguse: no chance

Ingebrigtsen: laughable

No chance.

I mean Jakob is borderline to get the 1500m record (I think he has a 30% chance under perfect circumstances) because despite being an anaerobic threshold monster, his anaerobic power (what makes good 800m runners) just isn't great. Yeah I think he can run low 1.45's in a 2 lap TT - that's not enough to break that record.

Look at the all-time list in the 1000m and the PR's of these guys

Ngeny 2.11.96: 1.44.49* > 3.28.12 (I asterisk this because he went 1.44.62 en route in that record so was surely a 1.43 low/mid runner)

Coe 2.12.18: 1.41.73 > 3.29.77

Cram 2.12.88: 1.42.88 > 3.29.67

Makhloufi 2.13.08: 1.42.61 > 3.28.75

Souleiman 2.13.49: 1.42.97 > 3.29.58

Jakob (and Nuguse, I shouldn't leave him out he's part of the question) clearly have the requisite ability over 1500m, but simply not over 800m. And 800m ability is the more important factor here (kind of obvious right?) - not 1500m ability.

I actually don't think we are going to see the 1000m record challenged now for a long time. That's because we have seen a shift away from the 8-1500 type runner of the 80's, 90's and 00's and now we really see a lot of straight 800m specialists with the vast majority of top 1500m runners now coming from the 1500-3000-5000 side and these runners don't have the speed to run that record. So finding a 1.42 runner that can also run sub 3.30 is really becoming difficult to find. Runners like Makhloufi and Wightman are really a dying breed figuratively speaking because they are throwbacks to that era of yesteryear. Someone mentioned Laros and that's a great name to bring up - I do wonder though how his career shapes up with respect to what his focus becomes - like does he start to put more focus on the 3000/5000 like Jakob in order to challenge the 3.27's/28's or does he keep trying to improve his 800m?

Obviously Makholoufi has retired so really Wightman is the only guy but I feel like he would almost need to take a second off his 800m PR to really consider putting him in the mix to run under 2.12. I don't see that happening. But as to Jakob and Jared - it's simply never going to happen.

I agree with your analysis but why no challenger from the 800 ranks? Wanyonyi (2 Running Club) comes from an endurance-emphasizing group that has 800/1500 athlete Nelly Chepchirchir as well. Considering they have him running XC, I don’t think it’s a stretch that he could dabble in the 1000/1500, even though Kenyan 800m runners don’t move around much (outside of 400s).