Why is the default assumption that Jakob would struggle to even contend with the guys he’s been destroying on the track the last two years? Is it because he was only 12th at U20s four years ago?
This feels like the same thing we used to hear about him and his chances of winning the 5k, even as late as 2021, and we’ve seen how that turned out. It seems foolish to write him off in XC at this stage.
Hard to know. Only thing we know is that he destroyed good Euro XC runners like Gressier, Crippa, Kimeli and that he struggled at Worlds U20 XC. We also know that he doesn't race it, which, given his mindset, probably means he knows he can't win it. I can see Gressier making around 20th and Jakob running one minute faster. That would make him 5th this year.
So my guess would be 3-7th most of the time. And a gold contender if the course is flat and dry. I think he will give it a shot later in his carreer.
Hard to know. Only thing we know is that he destroyed good Euro XC runners like Gressier, Crippa, Kimeli and that he struggled at Worlds U20 XC. We also know that he doesn't race it, which, given his mindset, probably means he knows he can't win it. I can see Gressier making around 20th and Jakob running one minute faster. That would make him 5th this year.
So my guess would be 3-7th most of the time. And a gold contender if the course is flat and dry. I think he will give it a shot later in his carreer.
Yeah we cannot be absolutely certain but I could see him in the top 10 for sure. If it were a 12K on the track he still might not be top 3 but I cannot rule it out. He is very good but we are not sure what happens beyond 5000m. Can he run 26:30ish? We don’t really know for sure.
Why is the default assumption that Jakob would struggle to even contend with the guys he’s been destroying on the track the last two years? Is it because he was only 12th at U20s four years ago?
This feels like the same thing we used to hear about him and his chances of winning the 5k, even as late as 2021, and we’ve seen how that turned out. It seems foolish to write him off in XC at this stage.
I was at Aarhus, and Bathurst, a medal is not happening for Jakob, unless he becomes friends with Nordas, and Norway find another fast female or two.
If there were GIANT prizes such as $1 million to win, $500,000 for 2nd and $250,000 for 3rd, does this increase or decrease Jakob’s chances? Or neither?
He's the closest, absolutely, but he has no 1500/mile chops "on the books." Did you know he never officially ran a sub 4 mile?
This isn't about "what if" or "could have." He "did not."
If you're trying to say Bekele never dominated in the 1500/mile, that's fine. But you're point about not having officially run a sub 4 mile is weak considering he ran 4:49 for 2000.
He's the closest, absolutely, but he has no 1500/mile chops "on the books." Did you know he never officially ran a sub 4 mile?
This isn't about "what if" or "could have." He "did not."
If you're trying to say Bekele never dominated in the 1500/mile, that's fine. But you're point about not having officially run a sub 4 mile is weak considering he ran 4:49 for 2000.
If there were GIANT prizes such as $1 million to win, $500,000 for 2nd and $250,000 for 3rd, does this increase or decrease Jakob’s chances? Or neither?
Nah, man. He's big relative to the best cross country runners and suffers on hills as shown at Aarhus and that mountain race where he literally lost to a whole bunch of hobby joggers. If there are real hills like Aarhus and Bathurst, he has no chance.
Yeah we cannot be absolutely certain but I could see him in the top 10 for sure. If it were a 12K on the track he still might not be top 3 but I cannot rule it out. He is very good but we are not sure what happens beyond 5000m. Can he run 26:30ish? We don’t really know for sure.
I can't see Cheptegei running 20sec faster than Jakob on the track. Jakob is very likely sub 26:30. But XC is different.
Yeah we cannot be absolutely certain but I could see him in the top 10 for sure. If it were a 12K on the track he still might not be top 3 but I cannot rule it out. He is very good but we are not sure what happens beyond 5000m. Can he run 26:30ish? We don’t really know for sure.
I can't see Cheptegei running 20sec faster than Jakob on the track. Jakob is very likely sub 26:30. But XC is different.
Well I agree cross country is clearly different. As to your other point; not many people thought Hicham could run under 27 as far as I know. In today’s shoes he probably could.
He's already won XC races, would indeed win NCAA because that's just a road race, has run a 27:54 road 10K, and won steeplechase events. I see no way he's not there at World XC with 800 to go and winding it up like always.
This was against other runners his age. Later that summer he ran 3:30.19 and came 4th/5th at the World Champs in track. Those Junior runners who crushed him in XC were nowhere near him on the track. XC is a very different beast, and you could see Jakob struggling mightily on the hills in 2019. He's not really built for XC.
Many of you will be proven wrong. He won’t win a very hilly race, but if it’s flat and dry, he will destroy the ethiopians and the ugandans. Why wouldn’t he? Some of you people underestimate him all the time.
Many of you will be proven wrong. He won’t win a very hilly race, but if it’s flat and dry, he will destroy the ethiopians and the ugandans. Why wouldn’t he? Some of you people underestimate him all the time.
World Cross is never flat. World Athletics Competition rules recommends a minimal of 10m total ascent per 1500m to 2000m loop for championships, so 50m to 70m minimal total climbing for 10K. They probably encourage more climbing than that, since they encourage "good course quality" on their cross country tour races. Bathurst was around 702 ft total climbing and Aarhus 782ft total climbing:
This was against other runners his age. Later that summer he ran 3:30.19 and came 4th/5th at the World Champs in track. Those Junior runners who crushed him in XC were nowhere near him on the track. XC is a very different beast, and you could see Jakob struggling mightily on the hills in 2019. He's not really built for XC.
This. I’m supposed to forget he got worked by juniors who he’d rightly smoke on the track?
Nobody knows -there are simply too many unknown factors! But one can speculate:
1. Jakob himself says his best distance right now probably is the 10000m. But this seems to be a guess he bases more on his gut feeling and hope than on concrete and good enough measurements from his training. So he may be right or he may be wrong…. Jakob being right will obviously mean a 26.10 / 11 capacity, and that will of course make him a (gold) contender in the right kind of xc course. If he is wrong I don’t think he will ever be a factor in Worlds xc…
2. Another sayings from Jakob: “I will never participate in a hilly Worlds xc”. I think he regards himself as too heavy for that kind of course, and that too much up and downhills ruins his rhythm relatively to much compared to guys like Aragawi, Cheptegei and foremost Kiplimo. And I think he bases this on the experience from Worlds U20 xc in Århus… But saying that he might also had an off day in this race. His last win in Euro champs xc (quite hilly) transferred to the hilly Århus would most certainly have crushed all the 11 athletes above him on the list that day… But I still think “hilly” will rule him out as a contender in the senior class.
3. If WA returns (at least some years) to previous normal xc courses for Worlds (like the course in Kampala where Cheptegei misjudged his efforts and collapsed), and Jakob is right in judging the 10000m as his best event, yes then I think he can win Worlds xc.
Hard to know. Only thing we know is that he destroyed good Euro XC runners like Gressier, Crippa, Kimeli and that he struggled at Worlds U20 XC. We also know that he doesn't race it, which, given his mindset, probably means he knows he can't win it. I can see Gressier making around 20th and Jakob running one minute faster. That would make him 5th this year.
So my guess would be 3-7th most of the time. And a gold contender if the course is flat and dry. I think he will give it a shot later in his carreer.
He doesn't race it, because it doesn't fit the training calendar. Euro Cross does, and he has shown remarkable durability across U23 and Senior ranks, having won the last two editions as a Senior.
Is this some kind of joke post? He would absolutely, completely, hands down, demolish everyone in XC worlds.
A decent chuck of his mileage offseason is gravel and xc, he would be as strong as he is on track.
No its not. Running on a almost completely flat on a gravel trail thats more similar to asphalt than a trail is not in any way good preparation for XC.
