Could Jakob MEDAL in World Cross Country?

It's a great question, and I hope we find out.

Aregawi, Kiplimo, Cheptegei, Kamworor, Kandie, Sawe and Ebenyo are all outstanding Cross Country runners. Jakob's speed endurance and tactical mastery would be less of a factor. The race distance is 29-30 minutes, which is longer than we've seen him go against top-level competition.

Best guess: I think he would finish as high as 4th and as low as 8th if everyone above runs. If it's a bit down with guys skipping for World Indoors or Road Races, he could get on the podium, but I'd still have to imagine he can't beat the two Ugandans.

While the conditions are much tougher at World XC vs EU XC champs and the competition is also much tougher, he has run 10K ish distances in XC conditions and won multiple gold medals at EU XC and U23 EU XC distances.

I think he would transition just fine to World XC if he felt like it and be a medal threat but not as sure as on the track.

en.wikipedia.org

European Cross Country Championships

The European Cross Country Championships is an annual international cross country running competition. Organised by the European Athletic Association, it is the area championships for the region and is held in December each y...

Link:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Cross_C...

Is this some kind of joke post? He would absolutely, completely, hands down, demolish everyone in XC worlds.

A decent chuck of his mileage offseason is gravel and xc, he would be as strong as he is on track.

Relax, under no circumstance is he demolishing Cheptegei/Kiplimo/Aregawi in an XC race. Like literally zero percent. Cheptegei has won the last 3 World 10Ks and run 26:11 and he only managed a bronze this year

So few Europeans also did World XC it is hard to glean much, but I looked at three Spaniards Ohlkelfen Hassaous and Paniagua. Ohlkelfen I'll actually leave out because he must've just bombed at World XCs (he was only 35 seconds back at Europe).

Margin from Jakob:
+1:11, +1:21
Margin from Jacob Kiplimo:
+2:23, +2:39
Margin from 5th place (Kenyan Pack):
+1:43, +1:49

The overall point may be that it's a whole different level, which makes sense when runner-up is Emile Cairess vs. World XC 8th place (and 49 seconds back of the winner) from an in-form Rodrigue Kwizera who'd won 2 XC races and run 27:04 for a road 10K in the buildup.

I'm assuming you don't know he's a many times European XC champion. If you did, then you wouldn't even have to ask this question. Coupled with the voluminous nature of his off season training and the fact that he's the best runner on the track period.

Your assumptions are erroneous. The odds are Jakob would not medal. This thread is very revealing about who has a clue and who doesn’t. Thoughtsleader and SebCoe clearly understand this. Some of the rest of you, not so much.

You are just like all of the other doubters who were proven wrong about Jakob's abilities time and time again

No, it's not about Jakob's abilities. In fact, his very real and proven abilities up through 5000 are without doubt.

However, name another such person that also dominated at 12k XC, at the same time. Bekele? nope. Tergat? Nope. Cheptegai? Nope. Kamworwor? Nope.

Do I think Jakob could run well? Yes I do. If he said it was his sole goal over the next year? Then yea, I think he could there too. But at same time he is world's best 1500 to 5000 man? No, not against pure distance specialists. Their meeting ground is 5000 on the track. Either direction after that, favors either Jakob for shorter, or the distance guys for longer.

He could do everything this year since he peaked in a unprecedented way.

He look more like (relative to their times) the Aouita of 1985-1988, Morceli of 1993-1995 and El G. of 1998-2002. For someone that tried to simulate the North African way, he fully succeeded. We need to see what he can do the next years.

Bekele nope?

Jacob Kiplimo 25%
Jakob Ingerbritsen 24%
Joshua Cheptegei 24%
Kenyan or Ethiopia 25%
Other 2%

What I find interesting about this is Jakob would have a better chance of finishing 30+ seconds back than of winning.

Could be? The way xc goes 30 seconds isn’t a lot actually on a tough course.

I think he has a 24% chance to win and a similar chance to be that far back…same goes for the other top runners though.

0.01% chance

He's the closest, absolutely, but he has no 1500/mile chops "on the books." Did you know he never officially ran a sub 4 mile?

This isn't about "what if" or "could have." He "did not."

This year only the top 4 were within 30 seconds of the winner. So could Jakob finish in 5th place or worse? Sure? But he could also win.

He would probably do about as well in the senior world XC champs as he did in the U20 world XC champs in 2019:

Likely in the top 10, almost certainly the fastest non-African. Beyond that I don’t think it’s any guarantee that he even gets in the top 5, world XC is pretty brutal.

This was against other runners his age. Later that summer he ran 3:30.19 and came 4th/5th at the World Champs in track. Those Junior runners who crushed him in XC were nowhere near him on the track. XC is a very different beast, and you could see Jakob struggling mightily on the hills in 2019. He's not really built for XC.