Poll: Is Jakob's 3:43:73 mile the fastest CLEAN mark in history?

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

I hate to say this but I do think it's the clean WR - but that's pure opinion.

Why do I believe performances 1 and 2 aren't clean? The era. I wrote a post on this a week or so ago about how much the 90's were in terms of an outlier decade for record breaking primarily in the 1500m (which clearly is applicable in the mile). From Bayi in 1974 through to Aouita (^^ and the last record of the 80's) the largest drop we saw in the 1500m record was 1.1 seconds when Cram broke 3.30 for the first time. And even that was an outlier as the record was only ever broken by tenths of a second on the 7 other occasions it occured. In total it went down 2.7 seconds across 17 years. In the 90's, Morceli and El G took 3.46 seconds off that last mark of the 80's across 7 years and it just can't be coincidence that the 90's was the most infamous era in endurance sports for doping - especially with respect to EPO. I loved watching El G run. I once sat next to Ngeny at Weltklasse and we both watched Hicham run under 3.27 - but history has shed some light on what almost certainly was happening back then.

Why do I think Jakob is clean? Because he is part of the smartest coaching setup in history (even more than Coe) and the technology at his disposal caters perfectly to all his strengths. Jakob can sit there and guarantee that Nguse will run at least 3.46 if he sticks to him because he knows what he can run and there is no guess work anymore. They know he can run a certain pace for a certain distance and barring an illness etc, he physiologically will have no problems handling it. And once they know that they request the most impactful tech in the history of the sport to cater exactly to their science and he goes out and executes it. It was so easy to predict what would happen today through 1200m split wise - the only guesswork was how much power he had left to get close to the record. Today it was pretty damn good - not quite good enough. I can't even imagine the confidence this provides to know that there is almost no way you can screw it up. If you know you need to run 56.0 for exactly two laps you can just stay right at the top of those yellow lights and you will run 1.52.0 for 800m (exactly like he did today to the tenth). My point is, I think that people will say "well how can they be so close to dopers times if they aren't doping" - well if those guys back in the 90's had access to the tech available now and had unlocked the science that Jakob uses (knowing his threshold with respect to speed v distance) the records would be considerably tougher. Probably 3.25.0 give or take a tenth in the 1500m and the mile would have been also about a second faster (insane to say this but I believe it). So if you believe that all things equal those records would be at those levels then it becomes highly likely that Jakob is just a super talent without the extra "stimulus" of the 90's.

This race was absolutely as good as 1999 and bigger picture even better because of the volume of guys under 3.50 (11!)

Coaching wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

I hate to say this but I do think it's the clean WR - but that's pure opinion.

Why do I believe performances 1 and 2 aren't clean? The era. I wrote a post on this a week or so ago about how much the 90's were in terms of an outlier decade for record breaking primarily in the 1500m (which clearly is applicable in the mile). From Bayi in 1974 through to Aouita (^^ and the last record of the 80's) the largest drop we saw in the 1500m record was 1.1 seconds when Cram broke 3.30 for the first time. And even that was an outlier as the record was only ever broken by tenths of a second on the 7 other occasions it occured. In total it went down 2.7 seconds across 17 years. In the 90's, Morceli and El G took 3.46 seconds off that last mark of the 80's across 7 years and it just can't be coincidence that the 90's was the most infamous era in endurance sports for doping - especially with respect to EPO. I loved watching El G run. I once sat next to Ngeny at Weltklasse and we both watched Hicham run under 3.27 - but history has shed some light on what almost certainly was happening back then.

Why do I think Jakob is clean? Because he is part of the smartest coaching setup in history (even more than Coe) and the technology at his disposal caters perfectly to all his strengths. Jakob can sit there and guarantee that Nguse will run at least 3.46 if he sticks to him because he knows what he can run and there is no guess work anymore. They know he can run a certain pace for a certain distance and barring an illness etc, he physiologically will have no problems handling it. And once they know that they request the most impactful tech in the history of the sport to cater exactly to their science and he goes out and executes it. It was so easy to predict what would happen today through 1200m split wise - the only guesswork was how much power he had left to get close to the record. Today it was pretty damn good - not quite good enough. I can't even imagine the confidence this provides to know that there is almost no way you can screw it up. If you know you need to run 56.0 for exactly two laps you can just stay right at the top of those yellow lights and you will run 1.52.0 for 800m (exactly like he did today to the tenth). My point is, I think that people will say "well how can they be so close to dopers times if they aren't doping" - well if those guys back in the 90's had access to the tech available now and had unlocked the science that Jakob uses (knowing his threshold with respect to speed v distance) the records would be considerably tougher. Probably 3.25.0 give or take a tenth in the 1500m and the mile would have been also about a second faster (insane to say this but I believe it). So if you believe that all things equal those records would be at those levels then it becomes highly likely that Jakob is just a super talent without the extra "stimulus" of the 90's.

This race was absolutely as good as 1999 and bigger picture even better because of the volume of guys under 3.50 (11!)

Almost every other elite athlete had tenured coaches that were coaches.

Jakob’s dad had no connection to the sport and you think it’s the smartest coaching group.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Dwightarm wrote:

I don’t think El G was clean.
I think Ngeny was clean (for the brief period he was able to compete.)

I believe Ingebritsen benefits a lot from shoes + wavelight; El G could possible have gone low 3:42/high 3:41 with it.

I share the same sentiments. El Guerrouj and the Moroccan level of involvement at the time…

I know some will say Ngeny must have been doping, but I have not seen the KIM group (or Kim McDonald) truly implicated by anyone besides saying “oh they were too fast to be true” or citing the era. And there’re plenty of threads here with people who worked with the group as well as prominent athletes. The NOP truthfully has a much larger taint based on Magness/Goucher/Mackey et al and then of course the Salazar ban.

That being said, Ngeny’s mark was certainly aided by a doped athlete and perfect pacing/drafting in my estimation then. I think what Jakob did today would be just as impressive almost even with the wavelight/spikes. Having to lead for 650 with a breeze unlike Ngeny who was able to turn his brain off and coast.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Re Kim's group? Daniel Komen was pissing straight caffeine after he ran that 3000m record - trust me on that one. Ngeny is such a nice person it pains me to have to contemplate the possibility but this also was an era where some of these guys were so naive to stuff and (this sounds crazy but it's true) terrified of getting malaria that things ended up in their systems that shouldn't have been there. That's not conclusive proof by any means but it has to be taken into account.

The caffeine thing is weird. Was he mainlining caffeine (a foolhardy decision let’s say) or does his body handle it in a bizarre fashion? I have no idea but it’s probably worth noting nobody else in the group/Kim’s history had such a problem. The malaria thing sure I don’t dismiss who knows, there is Rengeruk who appears to have had a similar situation. I think your skepticism is totally fair. You’ve met Ngeny and of course the man literally quit a probably easy emeritus paycheck over Kenya not doing enough to combat doping (well before the problem was so pronounced). Virtue signaling? Possibly. His 1,000 time was awesome and his one-off was as well. But I put him in the class of Coe, Geb, Bekele as in exceptional talents for which suspicion is totally fair but more about their times/feats than their associations.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

I hate to say this but I do think it's the clean WR - but that's pure opinion.

Why do I believe performances 1 and 2 aren't clean? The era. I wrote a post on this a week or so ago about how much the 90's were in terms of an outlier decade for record breaking primarily in the 1500m (which clearly is applicable in the mile). From Bayi in 1974 through to Aouita (^^ and the last record of the 80's) the largest drop we saw in the 1500m record was 1.1 seconds when Cram broke 3.30 for the first time. And even that was an outlier as the record was only ever broken by tenths of a second on the 7 other occasions it occured. In total it went down 2.7 seconds across 17 years. In the 90's, Morceli and El G took 3.46 seconds off that last mark of the 80's across 7 years and it just can't be coincidence that the 90's was the most infamous era in endurance sports for doping - especially with respect to EPO. I loved watching El G run. I once sat next to Ngeny at Weltklasse and we both watched Hicham run under 3.27 - but history has shed some light on what almost certainly was happening back then.

Why do I think Jakob is clean? Because he is part of the smartest coaching setup in history (even more than Coe) and the technology at his disposal caters perfectly to all his strengths. Jakob can sit there and guarantee that Nguse will run at least 3.46 if he sticks to him because he knows what he can run and there is no guess work anymore. They know he can run a certain pace for a certain distance and barring an illness etc, he physiologically will have no problems handling it. And once they know that they request the most impactful tech in the history of the sport to cater exactly to their science and he goes out and executes it. It was so easy to predict what would happen today through 1200m split wise - the only guesswork was how much power he had left to get close to the record. Today it was pretty damn good - not quite good enough. I can't even imagine the confidence this provides to know that there is almost no way you can screw it up. If you know you need to run 56.0 for exactly two laps you can just stay right at the top of those yellow lights and you will run 1.52.0 for 800m (exactly like he did today to the tenth). My point is, I think that people will say "well how can they be so close to dopers times if they aren't doping" - well if those guys back in the 90's had access to the tech available now and had unlocked the science that Jakob uses (knowing his threshold with respect to speed v distance) the records would be considerably tougher. Probably 3.25.0 give or take a tenth in the 1500m and the mile would have been also about a second faster (insane to say this but I believe it). So if you believe that all things equal those records would be at those levels then it becomes highly likely that Jakob is just a super talent without the extra "stimulus" of the 90's.

This race was absolutely as good as 1999 and bigger picture even better because of the volume of guys under 3.50 (11!)