33,000 Boston Applicants

I'm thinking the cut off will be ~8 minutes.

In 2021, the field size was 20,000 (16,000 qualifiers, 4,000 charity), 9,215 qualifiers were not accepted, and the cut-off time was 7:47.

In 2024, the expected field size is 30,000 (23,000 qualifiers, 7,000 charity/other). There were 33,000+ qualified entrants so we'd expect 10,000+ qualifiers not to be accepted. So we'd expect the cut-off time to be slightly more aggressive than the 2021 7:47 cut-off.

This assumes:

- Field size will remain 30,000. In 2014 the field was 36,000 (year after bombing). Perhaps they could increase the field size? Maybe Bank of America is motivated to have the biggest field ever in their inaugural year?

- The proportion of qualified spots vs. charity spots vs. other will remain consistent with prior years

- The distribution of qualifying times this year is consistent with the 2021 year. Maybe the 2021 year was faster because only the die hards were running marathons in the pandemic? Maybe this year is faster due to super shoes? idk

We’ll see. Reasons this might be pessimistic:

-That’s a high charity/other number, I’ve seen more like 6,000 for that figure not 7,000 which is consistent with 80% qualifiers

-Does that 33,000+ number include only qualified runners/merely just applicants? Some of these times won’t be verified or be approved when all is said and done.

-Close to cutoff runners…With 2 straight years of no cutoffs, it is possible a lot of runners don’t aim for the same margin below the BQ as in the past? That’s a possibility as well as the fact that at 5 mins faster from 2019 there isn’t as much cushion for most as well.

I do think the huge cutoffs (eg 5’+) are unpopular and I wonder the level of backlash if that happens again without a COVID excuse

i am one of the 9,000+ runners who will be going home DEVASTATED and am pretty much in shock right now
should i go ahead and assume my standard will be 5 minutes faster for 2025?
this would have been my first Boston, crushed

Sorry man I’d feel really bad if it ends up around -4:00+ and realistically there was little sign that would be the case.l for anyone who has a 2 minute-plus cushion, Let’s hope it is not crazy or they find a way to help by increasing the field or tightening the charity spots.

I’ve been saying this before sign ups, 5 min flat cut off

The BAA officially announced that the charity allocation for this year is 10%. So a lot of the wild speculation is way off. If we solely compared to 2019, and assumed equal variables which is a bit of a stretch, we're really looking at a cutoff somewhere in the mid 4-minute range. 2019 was the 2nd highest registrations only to this year, and I'm not using the covid year with a reduced field size to compare because that would be silly. 2019 had a 20% charity allocation vs. the 10% for this year. I'm sure there are some mad data scientists considering many more variables and I'd love to see vegas odds, but am sticking with a cutoff of 4:30ish +/1 20 seconds in this case. Would love for people to tell me why I'm wrong.

I wonder what the dynamics are that generated the big increase in qualifyers? Supershoes? Pent-up covid demand that hadn't yet unwound?

one reason you are probably wrong is you forget about all the municipal, club, and sponsor numbers handed out. for many years, those folks out-numbered the charity entrants and are probably still close to another 10%.

the BAA has been consistent, with the field being ~80% qualifiers.

In 2019, there were just a little over 2.5k charity runners that’s like 8%

Odd to me that they advertise different Charity allocations Year to Year, but I'm with you on sponsor, club slots etc. Makes sense.

Also where is the 20% coming from?

Speaking just for myself, I ran a marathon for the first time in 9 years last fall without really thinking about doing Boston and finished with a time ~10 minutes better than my qualifying time. Once I saw the 2023 race accepted all qualified applicants I decided to enter on a whim as I haven't done Boston in almost a dozen years. I know at least 4 other people with qualifying times ranging from 30 seconds under the qualifier to 20 minutes under that registered and also have either never done it or haven't in the last 5 years.

My guess is that a lot of people saw there hasn't been a cutoff and decided to put their name in expecting they wouldn't have to worry about being disappointed.

One of the BAA’s press releases says 10% charity field this year. hope my 3 min cutoff is enough. Sad it will likely not be

Still too early to tell but we all knew running was fully back. NYRR races sold out quickly this year. I wasn't sure though whether people had enough training to have posted faster times. Good luck to those who applied.

Most of the folks I've talked to at past BM's train to a 10 minute cushion - as I do. FindMyMarathon is a great place to pick your qualifying run. Me and several of my running buddies have used it to get in. Get greedy and train to beat your BQ by 15 minutes and sleep better at night.

They need to raise their entry fee. They are clearly under pricing their product as demand still exceeds supply.

Its the Boston Marathon - don't rush it (your stay). Best part of the event is the mingling with the best marathon runners in the world. My wife and I typically AirB&B it and make it a Wednesday to Wednesday event. $1,000 to spend a week 30 minutes outside of downtown Boston (via $25/ea rail pass for the week) is hard to beat. And most AirB&B's are cancellable up to the last couple days before arrival with a full refund. Most airfares are refundable via airline credit you can use next year - when you're faster - if needed.

Genuine question. Can i drive in on race morning if I live 2 hours away. I don't mind waking up at an ungodly hour.