ATHING MU: hand her the GOLD, unless she's injured the Gold is hers

My prediction for how the race plays out: Moraa gets to 200m first in ~26.5 and employs her branded tactic of slowing it down (today she ran her 2nd 100m in 13.09 and her 3rd 100m in 15.42). She splits 57.6 at 400 and 1:13.0 at 500. Mu makes a huge push on the backstretch which Moraa fights but can’t rebuke, and by 650m it’s Mu-Moraa-Hodgkinson single file. Mu pulls away to win in 1:56.0 and the real battle is for 2nd, with Hodgkinson just barely outlasting Moraa 1:56.6 to 1:56.7. Reekie closes well for 4th in 1:57-low and Akins outkicks Nakaayi to round out the top 5 in a big 1:57.6 PB. Rogers 7th, Tracey 8th.

I think you are forgetting how close Mu came to losing to Keely at last year's championships and Keely is considerably better this year than last as is Moraa. Too close to call as any of these could win and anyone can be slightly off on any given day.

I would agree with your prediction if 800m were raced with a four turn stagger.

At the most recent Olympics, Athing Mu was able to race from the front and run relatively even splits. Mary Moraa may split first lap 55.0. Then what? Does Athing Mu want to fight Mary M for the early lead or does Athing Mu want to race even splits? Mary Moraa may have been planning for this for a year. Mary Moraa may plan on splitting 400m in 55.0 and testing Athing Mu.

If runners trip and fall in races longer than 3000m and fall down with at least 2000m to go, it can all work out. Eight hundred meters is going to have to be raced on four turn stagger some day. Elite 800m runners are roughly equally good.

For those who don’t think Athing is a huge favorite, can you name a single race where you’ve ever seen a performance like this? Hassan falling and winning in a 1500 heat at 2019 Worlds doesn’t even compare. This is the 800. It’s a redline rhythm race, and it’s not like this was a slow pace when she got clipped. Recovering from that is ridiculous.

What Mu did, and the ease with which she did it, was one of the most extraordinary things I’ve ever seen in athletics, and you’re all badly underrating it. She is +110 at several betting sites. You’d be crazy not to bet her at that price.

It's a very hard race to call. Barring mishap I think it's going to come down to who has the most strength in the lactic acid of the last 30 or so metres.

Vipam, Mu will go to the front immediately and if Moraa challenges then we could see a smoking fast first 400M in 56, then we will see who can respond with with a 59 second 400M for the win, it is going to be very exciting. I think Mu will win, however Moraa looks really strong.

Quite a good take. Keely tried to kick past Mary on the backstraight and failed. Mu might do it. But remember Mary is good at coming back from nowhere...

So you’re saying she will run and win on pure hate.

In the last line you say if she is not injured she will win.
But above that, you say if she can avoid stumbles she is a strong favorite.

Which is it? You made two qualifiers - doesn’t stumble AND isn’t injured.

Can she stumble and win if she isn’t injured?

Everyone thinks she should win if she runs a clean race.

No they don't. Many think that Mary could win and quite a lot are betting on Keely. Keely has run 1.55 this season and yet people are predicting Mu winning in 1.56??

Maybe, but don’t you think Mu might really want to avoid getting caught up in another slow down? Not saying it’s necessarily the right thing to do, but you definitely couldn’t blame her if that happens at 200 and she just moves to the front.
… I’m also not so sure Hodgkinson would like a slow down. If they can both do 1:55s, they might just rely on that rather than get caught up in a mess ending mid 1:56.

BTW, even after rounds, I think they can do 1:55 if they avoid the fray.

Keeley has also lost in races 3 seconds slower than her seasons best. I'm still saying Athing Mu wouldn't show up UNLESS she was fit enough to win, that's why I hope she wasn't injured in that collision.

If you get injured during a race who sticks around to shake competitors hands and do an interview? NO ONE! Of course her and Kersee are smart enough not to disclose it until they decide to run the final or not.

If it's slow, I'd say Moraa will likely win. If it's fast, I'd pick Hodgkinson to slow down the least. I'm just not sure that Mu wants to be there. I was impressed by her sensible response to the near trip but I'm still not sure about that she is where she was 2 years ago and I think she'll need to be to win.

Mu Athing is fast,Keely is better this year , Mary is unpredictable and have several tanks and comebacks. What an interesting race.

I think Moraa is more vulnerable after seeing the semis but don't discount her.

What bothers me is her demeanor, her facial expressions. No smiles. 180 degrees from her usual self. She seems like she is angry at the world. If only she could be "running on pure hate" but it seems to be something else to the point of being troubling. I just got a really bad vibe last night about it all. She seems like she doesn't wish to be there.

This was like Emma Coburn before her race. Same look on her face but she knew she was screwed already because of her hamstring and no doubt losing some fitness.

Maybe something good will come of the collision recovery and her being pissed will be a good thing and not suck the energy from her.

Yeah but this is more of a function of the laughable depth in the womens 800m because you are right - recovering from that was ridiculous and would be absolutely impossible in the mens 800 - even in a really down year for that event.

I'm not underrating that, merely putting into context. I just don't believe it's because she is in otherwordly shape (I think she is probably capable of running in the 1.55's right now) - I think it's because the rest of the field is nowhere near that and really they should be given the development of all MD running globally in the last 5 years.

Is she the favorite? Yes and she should be. She's the reigning OC and WC and still the fastest on paper. HUGE favorite? No. The most impressive through the rounds in terms of control, tactical positioning has been Hodgkinson. The runner with the biggest x-factor to me is Moraa because not only does she run like her life depends on crossing the line first, we have seen her win titles in crazy ways before (go watch the Birmingham Commonwealth Games final if you want to see an extraordinary way to run a final and somehow win).

If the field can get bodies around Mu - especially from 200-600 then it's going to be a very interesting final for the top 3 (who are sadly light years better than the rest).

I think there are three great competitors with different strengths.

It can become a fantastic race.

Mu must be the favourite but in some scenarios I think that Moraa and Keely can win.

If Mu faced one of them she would have a very clear advantage but the preferred strategy against one of them might help the other.

This could be dangerous for Mu as her and Moraa would basically be rabbits for Hodgkinson.
I like Mu for the win here, but it’s far from a given. If she runs in the pack , she risks getting tripped up again. If a he takes it out hard , she risks Keeley running her down at the line. It will be an exciting race for sure whatever happens.

Keely H and Mary M both have the eye of the tiger. Mu gets bronze.

You guys were ready to hand Jakob gold because he was too good this season. There is a reason we run races.