Will Ingebrigtsen win the 1500? Official 2023 Worlds Men's 1500 Discussion Thread

Never doubt a big surprise could come from Kersee the Chemist’s 400h man, Benjamin.

Benjamin is with Quincy Watts, last I knew.

Watts is as sketchy as Kersee. Total PED abuser when he competed.

I think the dreadful pacing job by Baba hurt El Guerrouj. As Jakob would put it he likely got the lactic going a bit early (54.2-3 lap and then a slow one). In response it was an uneven 3:32 race instead of a sub-3:30. The 3rd lap was a little compromised and Ngeny measured it perfectly.

Theres unlikely to be much of a variable pacing-wise here as Jakob can run 56s in his sleep and has shown a great sense of pace in fast races all season. Now I think you’re right the one variable which could throw him is the hard, perhaps suicidal, surge to pass him 800 in. Who could do it? Honestly, Habz and Reynold Cheruiyot have the greatest shifting abilities. The fitter guys don’t really change gears dramatically. Habz is not an aggressive racer so I don’t see it. Reynold idolizes Tim - is it possible the Kenyans get all 3 in and he’s instructed to make a hard pass from 800-900 in? Could he pull that off? I don’t know. As you say the safer assumption is Jakob sets a hard, unrelenting pace and everyone else ends up fighting too hard for position behind him to challenge him.

If in the 1500 final I don’t see all 3 Kenyans stalking Jakob by 500 meters in I don’t really see anyone pulling it off solo without someone running obstruction.

J Ingebrigtsen versus any one 1500m runner, J Ingebrigtsen over 90% likely to prevail. J Ingebrigtsen versus the field? The field at least 30 percent likely to prevail.

* J Ingebrigtsen has not been as dominating as was Steve Ovett heading into 1980 Summer Olympics men's 1500m final.

* Sydney Maree, 1983 W.C. 1500m failed to make 1500m final even though Sydney Maree held 1500m w.r. at the time of 1983 World Championships. J Ingebrightsen does not hold 1500m world record.

* Steve Ovett was exactly three weeks away from breaking 1500m world record at the time of 1983 W.C. 1500m final, finished 4th.

* 1992 Summer Olympics, Noureddine Morceli was the fastest 1500m man. He was no factor, 1500m final.

* Hicham el Guerrouj lost two Olympic 1500m final, 1996 & 2000.

Will Stewart McSweyn ruin any chance of earning a medal by pacing J I through 800m in 1:51.xx?

ovett, morcelli and el guerrouj would have done better if they went hard from start like Jakob will do in Budapest. Making it a slow the firt rounds makes much less of a favorite and he knows it

Rai Benjamin is relatively closer to Warholm this season than any runner is to Jakob.

Jingy 3:27.2 ftw, Nuguse 3:28.0

and won 4 successive World Championship.

3:27 I hardly see it. (*)

There is none as the same talent as Ngugi in the current crew contenders of Jakob.

(*) partly because Jakob would save his fitness for the 5000m after 3 races of the 1500m.

It’s going to be hot and muggy - a disadvantage for Jacob. I predict he will come in 3rd after the Afrikaners.

The Africans will use some sort of team tactics, maybe pull a Merga.

Even if Jakob gets tripped up before half way I still put my money on him winning. I would doubt that will happen however. He learnt a big lesson at the WC with Wightman. He’ll be front running the majority of the final if not all of it.

If he wins, then he is a hero. If he loses, then he is a villian. Or maybe the other way around.

This should be merged with the Jakob hero or villain thread.

Why does the article talk about the steeplechase and not the 1500m?

Cut him some slack, 20 years of owning a running message board and news site isn't enough to get into the habit of proofreading before you post.

Do not forget Narve Gilje Nordås. He is relatively new in the game and has learned a lot from his runs in Oslo and London, due to his very slow openings . He has been the fastest at the last 800s both times. And knows that his third round in London was too fast: 54.6. So in the final he will stay closer to Jakob, Katir, Kerr and Nuguse during the race.

He is the favorite against the field in the 1500.

The 5k? He is near to 50/50 vs. the field. Maybe 50.5% he wins

I’d bet even money or better for Ingebritsen vs. the field.

The field needs to make him do all of the work and he needs an off day for anyone else to have a shot, which he hasn’t really had all year.

Maybe my knowledge of the history of the sport isn't up to scratch, but has there been a single time in recent history when the East Africans have used team tactics in a major championship final? And who can blame them, would you want to sacrifice your own 10% chance of winning - and setting yourself up for life in the process - just to improve your countryman's odds?

Again, maybe it has happened and I just don't know about it. But my memories of 2012-17 are of the BBC commentator (Cram?) saying time and time again "the Kenyans are going to have to work together if they want to beat Farah". And we know how that usually turned out...

Anyway, all that to say that I'd be surprised to see any sort of team tactics going on, especially in such a hectic race as the 1500m.