The 5000m final at worlds will be won in sub 12:40

In 2003, El G and Bekele doubled and lost to Kipchoge who just focused on the 5000.

But who are the athletes that are focusing only on 5.000m in Budapest?

Nobody knows how this race will play out. One of the least likely outcomes is that the winning time will be within about 4 seconds of the world record, which is what you predict. A winning time over 14 minutes is actually more likely than 12:39, for example, although over 14 is also highly unlikely.

WHAT

These two might be friendly but they’re not countrymen or teammates. If McSweyn sets a fast pace in the 1500 final it will be because it’s his best chance at a high placing.

This is basically how I imagine it will unfold as well. This strategy did serious damage to most of the fields in multiple 5ks on the circuit. One or more of Kejelcha/Aregawi/Kiplimo/Cheptegei/Krop will run as hard as they can from 2k out and pray it’s enough to beat Jakob on that particular day. Jakob is the big favorite but you can’t dismiss the possibility that someone else will find that unexpected last 26 second 200 to steal the win.

Agree. We might dub that the “Edris.” In terms of most likely to least likely to produce it:

Gebrhiwet (fresh and has shown a desperate sprint before)

Krop (seems like it could be in skill set if he’s patient)

Kejelcha (fresh, and has a good gear shift if he can stay patient for once instead of going early)

Cheptegei (we’ve seen if in the Olympics)

Haile Bekele (possible in a 12:55+ race)

Kiplimo (would have to be better positioned than usual and patient)

Grijalva/Chelimo (fresh and wild cards)

Katir (never flashed this sort of top-end but he’s been working on his speed)

Kipkorir (see: Kiplimo)

I’m not sure where Nur fits in as he’s been traditionally a go from a long way out guy. Ebenyo hasn’t shown the top-end speed really. Ndikumwenayo might be a possibility.

The smart money is on Jakob to either neutralize this by having a 1-second gap built up with 150 to go or one of the 12:40 guys having only 1 or 2 guys company as they try to hold on the last 100

Sorry, but this is hopelessly naive. Even the Kenyan number 3 runner still thinks they can medal. No one is going to that starting line as a de facto pacer. Every single race during the Mo Farah era we heard that "the East Africans" were going to work together to grind him down, and every race he executed his tactics because in the end, they all started dreaming of the medal. Jakob is smart enough to know he doesn't need to do anything but stay composed for 4k then wind it up.

The only person that would maybe have a slight chance of beating Ingebrigtsen in championship 5000m is Lamecha Girma. 3:29 speed with 7:26 and 7:52 stamina.

Everbody else will just be glorified pacemakers.

Stephen Kissa did for Uganda in the 10K once. Kenya tried Team tactics last year, but it seemed Ebenyo (3rd guy again this year) was feeling like crap or not on board. His teammates seemed to be imploring him to help with the lead. Ugandas 3rd this year may be either a not fully fit Oscar Chelimo/someone else (unlikely they make the final). Kenya has Cornelius Kemboi as a 4th who is maybe younger, more willing to execute the team tactics. Unsure if he’d make the final. If Kenya gets 4 I don’t think a steadily paced first 2k is impossible.

You seem to always undervalue Katir. Do you forget his kick in Florence 2023 with a full field including Kechelja and Aregawi.
In Monaco, it's not he didn't had a kick -> He was extremely exhausted by the pace of the race as a lot of other runners like Kiplimo.

In your ranking, Krop/Grijalva/Chelimo will be the last for me.

You should know. About 5 factors regarding kicking, in no particular order: 1) Sprinting speed, 2) how much is left, 3) training, 4) pain tolerance for sprinting into pain & 5) desire.

S M ends up finishing the big 1500m races with final 300m slower than 43.5. S M's final 300m is his slowest 300m.

S M could do with others have done: Race in 4th through 9th until 300m to go. Do I need to list all the male Olympians who have earned medals racing in that manner?

They don't want to hear of him for obvious reasons.
The most dangerous treat we keep quiet about it.

It's a well known rule.

The other day I saw a user accusing him of doping ... that's a thing to add.

You think almost everyone undervalues Katir and overvalues Jakob. Actually they are both probably roughly properly rated overall but it is true that Jakob is slightly overrated, but only slightly, and Katir may be slightly underrated, but only slightly. The bigger difference is that almost everyone thinks Katir is doping but they don’t accuse Jakob as much, when the truth is if Katir is doping, Jakob likely is too.

Can JI handle surges or uneven pacing? Would someone or a team of runners throw in 61 second laps every once in a while hoping to soften him up?

I remember 20+ years ago when an aging Bob Kennedy threw in surges and fast laps to soften and defeat Goucher in the 5000. He took a chance realizing that might be his only strategy to win and it worked. I wonder if there's someone who might try the same.

I don’t see Katir winning with a randomly fast 200. I see him winning if he hangs on to one of the breakaway runners and edges them out with a steady last 400. A scenario I find possible but he runs the same way Jakob does with slightly less ability it seems- advantage: Jakob

I think one or both of you said the only way to (maybe) break Jakob is to inject surges of pace throughout the race and disrupt his rhythm and force him to keep covering moves. Even a super fast but steady pace, or one that ramps up to a blistering pace over a K or two is not likely to cause Jakob much trouble and he’ll just sit and then pounce. Is that how you still see it? Was it that sudden surges and then a relaxation of the pace, and then repeat surges might be better tolerated by guys like Kiplimo or Aregawi? Would they be able to do this sort of thing without throwing away their chance at the end?

When dropping doping accusations you throw all your credibility to the ground.
It's easy to throw accusations but it's an arm with two sides.

You know each country will start with maximum 3 runners?

Jakob is only slightly better than the next best guy at 5000m. He will have his hands full. We cannot know that he will win no matter the tactic. The best way to defeat him is to hunt him down. There are several who could do it. When Hicham took the lead in 2003 at WC 5000m with about 900m left, most people thought the 3:26 runner was almost a lock. He wasn’t.