2023 guesses for top teams grouped by tiers. They are roughly in order of predicted finish but i was thinking more of the tiers than the order of finish when making this, though NAU is the heavy favorite for me. Should be noted that i have no idea what i'm talking about.
I honestly have no idea what to do with Tulsa. They historically seem to always find guys but they only have one guy returning who finished in the top 200 last year from what i see.
Tier 1
NAU
Returning top 7
Nico Young (2nd), Drew Bosley (3rd), Santiago Prosser (19th), Colin Sahlman (151st)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Aaron Las Heras (Wake Forest, 26th), Aaron Sahlman (Injured?, NXN Champion,
3:58/8:37/14:14)
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Theo Quax (3:39/13:29 2023 outdoors), Kang Nyoak (3:43/13:42 2023 outdoors), Cael Grotenhuis (13:52/28:45 outdoors), Corey Gorgas (13:49 indoors)
BYU
Returning top 7
Casey Clinger (7th), Davin Thompson (30th), Creed Thompson (35th), Aidan Troutner (48th), Joey Nokes (52nd)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
probably too deep for anyone to break in this year
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Kenneth Rooks (8:16 3k steeple outdoors, 22nd at XC Mountain Regional in 2022), James Corrigan (13:40 outdoors), Jacob Stanford (13:56, 28:45 outdoors), Lucas Bons (13:58 outdoors)
Oklahoma St
Returning Top 7
Alex Maier (5th), Fouad Messaoudi (12th), Victor Shtsama (31st), Ryan Schoppe (53rd), Will Muirhead (140th)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Adisu Goade (13:49)
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Alex Stitt (3:40 outdoors, 16th at XC Midwest Regional in 2022), Jonas Price (8:46 3k steepel outdoors, 17th at XC Midwest Regional in 2022), Christopher Middleton-Pearson (3:40/13:54 outdoors), Isaiah Priddey (7:50 3k indoors, 3:42 outdoors)
Stanford
Returning top 7
Ky Robinson (10th), Thomas Boyden (75th), Cole Sprout (118th), Evan Burke (191st)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Leo Young (3:55/8:39/14:05), Lex Young (3:59/8:35/13:34 (Track))
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Robert DiDonato (13:44 outdoors, 34th at XC West Regional in 2022), Nolan Topper (13:54/28:44 outdoors 2022), Zane Bergen (3:43 outdoors)
Tier 2
Wisconsin
Returning top 7
Jackson Sharp (16th), Bob Liking (34th), Rowan Ellenberg (45th), Evan Bishop (83rd), Adam Spencer (188th)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Joe dosreis (3:40 outdoors), Christian De Vaal (8:45/14:03)
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Logan Measner (8:41 3k steeple outdoors), Micah Wilson (13:56/29:13 outdoors)
Tier 3
UNC
Returning top 7
Parker Wolfe (9th), Ethan Strand (62nd), Will Coogan (106th), Patrick Anderson (113th), Marshall Williamson (135th)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Alex Phillip (John Carroll, D3 XC Champion, 13:44 indoors, 28:31 outdoors), Jake Gebhardt (Indiana, 13:37 outdoors), Marquette Hanson (Missouri, 174th)
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Crawford Hope (63rd at XC Southeast Regional, 25th at XC ACC Championship),
Colorado
Returning top 7
Austin Vancil (34th), James Overberg (111th), Hunter Appleton (115th)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Kole Mathison (4:04/8:44/14:23)
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Noah Hibbard (3:42 2022 outdoors, 60th at XC Mountain regionals, 13th at XC Pac 12 championship), Jace Aschbrenner (28:46 outdoors), Jake Derouin (14:06/29:13 outdoors), Caleb Niednagel (8:54 3k steeple outdoors)
Notre Dame
Returning top 7
Carter Solomon (18th), Jake Renfree (103rd), Quinn Gallagher (142nd), Matthew Carmody (222nd)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Tyler Berg (Columbia, 78th, 7:54/13:41 indoors), Vinny Mauri (Arizona St, 87th, 13:39 2022 outdoors), Rishabh Prakash (Cornell, 7:55/13:51 indoors)
Other Contenders for top 7 on roster
Josh Methner (18th XC Great Lakes Regional, 13:32 5k PB), Ethan Coleman (28:46 outdoors), Tom Seitzer (8:34 3k steeple outdoors), Daelen Ackley (3:41 outdoors), CJ Singleton (8:43 3k steeple outdoors), Henry Chapman (8:50 3k steepel outdoors), Nicholas Mota (55th XC ACC Championship)
Tier 4
Harvard
Returning top 7
Graham Blanks (6th), Acer Iverson (50th), Joe Ewing (152nd), Shane Brosnan (156th), Vivien Henz (190th), Ben Rosa (251st)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Ferenc Kovacs (3:56/9:07/14:08 (Track))
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Jackson Shorten (8:54 3k steeple outdoors), Noah Ward (3:43 outdoors
Air Force
Returning top 7
Luke Combs (70th), Bryce Lentz (77th), Sean Maison (91st), Eli Bennett (108th)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
None
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Max Sannes (13:59/29:35 outdoors), Ryan Child (14:02/29:32)
Oregon
Returning top 7
Abdinasir Hussein (131st), Quincy Norman (146th), Alex Slenning (162nd), Cameron Stein (208th), Josh Edwards (212th)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Izaiah Steury (Notre Dame, 63rd), Connor Burns (3:57/8:31/13:37 (Track)), Archie Noakes (4:00/8:28/14:05 (Track))
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Elliott Cook (3:55 indoors), Giuliano Scasso (8:54 3k steeple outdoors), Vincent Mestler (8:56 3k steeple outdoors),
Tier 5
Virginia
Returning top 7
Derek Johnson (105th), Will Anthony (129th), Justin Wachtel (136th), Wes Porter (143rd), Yasin Sado (148th), Gary Martin (163rd)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
None
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Jack Eliason (3:42/13:47 outdoors), Nathan Mountain (3:39. 8:32 3k steeple outdoors), Jacob Hunter (3:44/30:31 outdoors), Andrew Jones (29:43 oudoors), Justin Diehl (14:03, 29:43 outdoors)
NC State
Returning top 7
Brett Gardner (64th), Hannes Burger (76th), Ian Harrison (80th), Jake Toomey (227th), John Malach (248th)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Toby Gualter (Eastern Michigan, 13:53/29:01 outdoors, 22nd XC Great Lakes Regional), Joseph Jaster (4th XC D3 Great Lakes Regional)
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Dan McGoey (57th Joe Piane XC, 14:03 2022 outdoors), Kevin Antczak (35th XC ACC Championship 2020)
Washington
Returning top 7
Luke Houser (42nd), Isaac Green (104th), Joe Waskom (164th), Sam Affolder (171st), Leo Daschbach (211th)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Tyrone Gorze (4:03/8:36/13:45 (Track))
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Evan Jenkins (4th USA U-20 XC Championships, 53rd World U-20 XC Championships)
Syracuse
Returning top 7
Nathan Lawler (46th), Sam Lawler (110th), Assaf Harari (123rd), Matthew Scrape (154th),
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Perry McKinnon (Cornell, 124th, 13:33/28:33 outdoors)
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Kevin Robertson (8:37 3k steeple outdoors), Alex Comerford (28:58 outdoors), Silas Derfel (202nd NCAA XC 2021)
Ole Miss
Returning top 7
Cole Bullock (166th), Aiden Britt (180th)
Incoming Transfers/Recruits that could contend for top 7
Jack Meijer (Wisconsin, 79th), Toby Gillen (Saint Louis, 3:42/13:30 outdoors), Cruz Gomez (Texas, 3:39 outdoors, has finished top 140 at XC Nationals twice)
Other contenders for top 7 on roster
Gabe Scales (3:45 outdoors)