Lausanne 1500 prediction

Wightman and Heyward have both scratched

Disappointing. No announcement yet that I can see, neither are on the start list now though so guess it's confirmed.

1 Jakob 3:27.0

2. Reynold 3:29.5

3. Kerr 3:29.7

4. Girma 3:30.0

5, Gourley 3:30.3

6. Farken 3:30.5

There will be many PBs also from the remaining runners.

The pacemakers should hit 800m in around 1:50.5 and 1000m in about 2:18.

Then the field should hit 1200m in around 2:46 and run the last 300m in around 41 to get 3:27.

Jakob can do this if he is still in good shape and if the weather is good, especially with no or light winds.

1. J. Ingebrigtsen 3: 27.3

2. R. Cheruiyot 3: 28.8

3. Girma 3: 29.6

4. Farken 3:29.9

5. Gourley 3: 30.0

6. Kerr 3:30.1

Expected. You don't want give favor of any kind to their rival.

I strongly doubt R. Cheruiyot rank 2 (times 3:29 could be possible with these new technologies Shoes/Track Lighting).

J. Kerr is out off the picture (I'm almost 75% confident about that).

We will get an idea about Girma potential in his next race.

It´s a 1500 race, not a mile!?

1. Jakob: 3.26.87
2. Girma: 3:28.05
3. Kerr: 3:28.5
4. Stewie: 3.29.00
5. Gourley?

My guess is:

Jakob 3:28.8

Girma 3:29.7

Kerr 3:29.9

Gourley 3:31.2

Tanner 3:31.4

I think the organizers erred with Sowinski as a second pacemaker when he should be a 1. I bet he drops off at 900. Girma looked OK today but he didn’t look particularly aggressive, which means I see Jakob alone-ish for the last 600. He can do enough to win but Silesia might be where he goes for a faster time with a better field likely with Kenyans, Katir, OAC guys et al.

Jakob : 3.27.4

Kerr : 3.30.9

Girma : 3:31.1

Gourley : 3:31.3

Weather forecast says rain and some wind.

Yes, although some chance it'll clear up by evening race time.

I can't predict any ranking but I give Jakob 60% chance to win nearly because of Girma inexperience (his lack of aggression comes from the pace of Steeple Chase.

If the pace is for 3:29 low I give Kerr 25% chance to get a second place.

Maybe the race is going to be tactical?

Why does everybody discount tanner to break up this 5 ? . Head to head gourley and tanner are 3/2 . It's like he got hyped so much at ncaa and didn't produce (massive culture shock for a surfer boy from a small town in nz ) . His coach says " a happy sam is a fast sam" .. he looks pretty fu$Ken happy to me .

1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:29.5
2. Josh Kerr 3:30.8
4. Lamecha Girma 3:31.1
5. Neil Gourley 3:31.8
6. Sam Tanner 3:32.8
7. Teddese Lemi 3:33.0
8. Matthew Stonier 3:33.1
9. Elliot Giles 3:33.3
10. Pietro Arese 3:33.4
11. Luke McCann 3:34.4
12. Julian Ranc 3:35.2
13. Tom Elmer 3:36.0
14. Stewart McSweyn 3:37.7

Weather looks iffy so I’m guessing it won’t be a super fast race by Jakob’s standards, but still a dominant win easing away in the last 300 and pulling some guys to PBs/SBs.

Edit: hadn’t realized Cheruiyot withdrew. No Cheruiyot or Farken.

No Reynold unfortunately…Hopefully in Silesia?

You also predicted Neguse second in Oslo and Jakob 3:28:20?

Without speaking of your misleads in the 5000m of Florence...