Jakob is EXTREMELY vulnerable for worlds

Ex L wrote:

Hicham El Guerrouj was a similar runner.

Very Strong. Not a lot of pure speed.

His World Championship results:

1995 - Silver (winning time 3:33.73 Morceli to his 3:35.28)

1997 - Gold - 3:35.83

1999 - Gold - 3:27.65

2001 - Gold - 3:30.68

2003 - Gold - 3:31.77

His opponents were Morceli (Oly Champ-3:27 PR), Cacho (Oly Champ-3:28 PR, Ngeny (Oly Champ 3:43 mile PR), Lagat (World Champ-3:26 PR) and Baala (3:28 PR)

No speed and he found a way to beat those dudes in WC finals over and over.

theRanMan wrote:

I hope Jake W is in shape for the Worlds thou!

Capital S wrote:

He has to push the pace from the front. The rest of the world isn’t that far behind. I don’t think Jakob can run 3:28 solo in Budapest. If it goes any slower than 3:28 there will be a bunch of guys ready to run him down. There is a scenario where it’s a 3:29 race and Jakob doesn’t even medal.

High hopes wrote:

It needs repeating again, because some people don't get what happened in Eugene last year:

Jakob didn't lost because he was out-kicked. He lost because he raced stupidly. He surged three times to keep Cheruiyot and Kipsang behind him when he should have just let them take the lead. Those surges drained his battery and gave Wightman his chance. Wightman ran smart, never surging, just staying on the back of the two Kenyans for 1200m. What Jakob found it is that even he doesn't get to make four moves in a 1500. In Budapest, if anyone wants to lead, he'll let them, then out-kick them in the last 100. Nobody is stronger than Jakob in the last 100 in a sub-3:30 race

no___deal wrote:

High hopes wrote:

It needs repeating again, because some people don't get what happened in Eugene last year:

Jakob didn't lost because he was out-kicked. He lost because he raced stupidly. He surged three times to keep Cheruiyot and Kipsang behind him when he should have just let them take the lead. Those surges drained his battery and gave Wightman his chance. Wightman ran smart, never surging, just staying on the back of the two Kenyans for 1200m. What Jakob found it is that even he doesn't get to make four moves in a 1500. In Budapest, if anyone wants to lead, he'll let them, then out-kick them in the last 100. Nobody is stronger than Jakob in the last 100 in a sub-3:30 race

It really will take Jakob running a 3:28 solo to win. In a 3:29 race he is going to lose.

Capital S wrote:

He has to push the pace from the front. The rest of the world isn’t that far behind. I don’t think Jakob can run 3:28 solo in Budapest. If it goes any slower than 3:28 there will be a bunch of guys ready to run him down. There is a scenario where it’s a 3:29 race and Jakob doesn’t even medal.

Capital S wrote:

He has to push the pace from the front. The rest of the world isn’t that far behind. I don’t think Jakob can run 3:28 solo in Budapest. If it goes any slower than 3:28 there will be a bunch of guys ready to run him down. There is a scenario where it’s a 3:29 race and Jakob doesn’t even medal.

Lightning wrote:

Got downvoted like a sin, but you were almost completely right

no__deal wrote:

Jakob can run 3:27 with pacers. Can he run it solo though? Because if Jakob can only run 3:29 solo, he will get beat.

That is by the way, the only way Jakob could be beaten. Let him lead from the beginning.

Capital S OP wrote:

Capital S wrote:

He has to push the pace from the front. The rest of the world isn’t that far behind. I don’t think Jakob can run 3:28 solo in Budapest. If it goes any slower than 3:28 there will be a bunch of guys ready to run him down. There is a scenario where it’s a 3:29 race and Jakob doesn’t even medal.

I got 65 downvotes for this but what did I say?

High hopes wrote:

It needs repeating again, because some people don't get what happened in Eugene last year:

Jakob didn't lost because he was out-kicked. He lost because he raced stupidly. He surged three times to keep Cheruiyot and Kipsang behind him when he should have just let them take the lead. Those surges drained his battery and gave Wightman his chance. Wightman ran smart, never surging, just staying on the back of the two Kenyans for 1200m. What Jakob found it is that even he doesn't get to make four moves in a 1500. In Budapest, if anyone wants to lead, he'll let them, then out-kick them in the last 100. Nobody is stronger than Jakob in the last 100 in a sub-3:30 race

Impala31 wrote:

Lightning wrote:

Got downvoted like a sin, but you were almost completely right

no. There was nothing making Jakob look vulnerable.

It's like saying "the roulette will stop on the 0 for sure". When it actually stops on the 0, it doesn't mean you were right. Odds were very low.

Impala31 wrote:

Lightning wrote:

Got downvoted like a sin, but you were almost completely right

no. There was nothing making Jakob look vulnerable.

It's like saying "the roulette will stop on the 0 for sure". When it actually stops on the 0, it doesn't mean you were right. Odds were very low.