Considering this is brought up every time someone runs fast these days... unlike Geb, he has super shoes and with super shoes anything is possible.
Unfortunately Geb had full throttle EPO to aid him. Without EPO Geb wouldn't be under 12:55. For every second that super shoes may help full throttle EPO helps 10 seconds per 5k
Two miles is a bit short for a 5k-10k runner. So the event suits better Jakob than Geb or Bekele.
With a little help from the shoes and wavelight also, I think he can easily race faster than those two legends in the 3k/2miles.
I think he is able of 7:23/7:57/12:40 in a perfect race now.
+1.
As THOUGHTSLEADER has argued several times: When Girma, Katir, Wale, Ndikumwenayo and Kejelcha can run from 7.23 81 (Girma), 7:24.68 (Katir), 7:24 98 (Wale) indoors and 7:25.93 (Ndik.) and 7:26.25 (Kejelcha) outdoors we must assume Jakob can run well under 7:25 in the 3000m UNDER GOOD CONDITIONS.
Under the same conditions he will also at least be able to run 7:58 in the 2 mile.
Jakob is an incredible athlete but he'll run around 8:02 to 8:05, respectfully. 7:58 for 2 miles is an INCREDIBLY difficult time and few of us (myself included) haven't a clue how intense and aggressive that type of time is to achieve. Remember, only 1 man in history has ever even broken 8 minutes, let alone 7:58...
He ‘only’ had one Outdoor PB last year, and it was a mile in 3:46.46, being an equivalent 2mile of 8:05. However, his 5000m PB of 12:48 is worth a 7:56 2mile, although he set that way back in 2021.
How do you calculate these equivalents?
Using Worldathletics tabels I get these numbers:
Jakob´s mile time: 1247 points equal to 2 mile in 8:03.50.
5000m time: 1252 points equal to 2 mile in 8:02.7 AND
On the 9th of June, Jakob will try to beat Komen 7:58 according to an article on FFA (french track and field federation) website, with the help of wavelight for the first time in Paris.
Discuss.
He can definitely do it but it sure won’t be easy for him. He’s faster than Komen was over the 1500m and 2000m and I believe his current 5000m best of 12:46 is outdated. Komen’s 5000m PB is 12:39. Jakob has a huge engine similar to Komen where he can maintain a close to top end speed for much longer than most athletes. If he can get the pacing right and perfect conditions it could go down.
Komen ran a 3:46.38 mile, just fractionally faster than Jakob. PR's aside, I don't buy that Jakob is inherently faster at 2000m than Komen.
I believe all the following things (you may not; that's fine):
1) Komen's 2-mile record is significantly weaker than his 3k record 2) Even the 3k record, while strong, isn't as crazy as it seems (weaker than the 1500m and 5k records imo) 3) The 2-mile is right in the middle of Jakob's range, and so if he's going to put down a truly monster time, this might be the event where it happens. 4) Jakob is in excellent shape at the moment, as evidenced by his easy win in Rabat, and is just getting fitter 5) Jakob hasn't really gone all-in on record attempts, and there's a big difference between a fast race that he's trying to win versus an explicit record attempt with wavelight.
Combining all of this, I am forced to believe that a truly insane time is possible. I'm talking like 7:54, which is not quite as out-there as it sounds (it's 7:21 or 7:22 pace for 3k).
Am I predicting 7:54? Of course not. Even Komen just ran 7:20 once. When you're talking a time like that, everything has to go right, and even then it's entirely possible that 7:54 is simply beyond Jakob's ability.
But there are rare times when athletes leap beyond what convention wisdom considers possible (e.g. Geb's 12:44, Komen's 7:20, Cheptegei's 2020 races, Radcliffe's 2:15, Coe's 1:41, Kipchoge's first Breaking-2). It's impossible to predict these races in advance, but I think there's a chance (although small) we'll see one here.
I believe all the following things (you may not; that's fine):
1) Komen's 2-mile record is significantly weaker than his 3k record 2) Even the 3k record, while strong, isn't as crazy as it seems (weaker than the 1500m and 5k records imo) 3) The 2-mile is right in the middle of Jakob's range, and so if he's going to put down a truly monster time, this might be the event where it happens. 4) Jakob is in excellent shape at the moment, as evidenced by his easy win in Rabat, and is just getting fitter 5) Jakob hasn't really gone all-in on record attempts, and there's a big difference between a fast race that he's trying to win versus an explicit record attempt with wavelight.
Combining all of this, I am forced to believe that a truly insane time is possible. I'm talking like 7:54, which is not quite as out-there as it sounds (it's 7:21 or 7:22 pace for 3k).
Am I predicting 7:54? Of course not. Even Komen just ran 7:20 once. When you're talking a time like that, everything has to go right, and even then it's entirely possible that 7:54 is simply beyond Jakob's ability.
But there are rare times when athletes leap beyond what convention wisdom considers possible (e.g. Geb's 12:44, Komen's 7:20, Cheptegei's 2020 races, Radcliffe's 2:15, Coe's 1:41, Kipchoge's first Breaking-2). It's impossible to predict these races in advance, but I think there's a chance (although small) we'll see one here.
I agree with some of your assertions but not the following :
- Jakob is in good shape but nothing lets think that he is in extraordinary shape. His indoor and outdoor races were not very fast this year so far, despite winning with ease (that expected from him in a 3:32 race). So shape is kind of unknown.
- I would rate Komen 7:20 as good as 3:26 and 12:35.
- 7:57 instead of 7:54. I don't think 7:54 is in Jakob range of possibility, even in a perfect race.
I believe all the following things (you may not; that's fine):
1) Komen's 2-mile record is significantly weaker than his 3k record 2) Even the 3k record, while strong, isn't as crazy as it seems (weaker than the 1500m and 5k records imo) 3) The 2-mile is right in the middle of Jakob's range, and so if he's going to put down a truly monster time, this might be the event where it happens.
I believe all the following things (you may not; that's fine):
1) Komen's 2-mile record is significantly weaker than his 3k record 2) Even the 3k record, while strong, isn't as crazy as it seems (weaker than the 1500m and 5k records imo) 3) The 2-mile is right in the middle of Jakob's range, and so if he's going to put down a truly monster time, this might be the event where it happens. 4) Jakob is in excellent shape at the moment, as evidenced by his easy win in Rabat, and is just getting fitter 5) Jakob hasn't really gone all-in on record attempts, and there's a big difference between a fast race that he's trying to win versus an explicit record attempt with wavelight.
Combining all of this, I am forced to believe that a truly insane time is possible. I'm talking like 7:54, which is not quite as out-there as it sounds (it's 7:21 or 7:22 pace for 3k).
Am I predicting 7:54? Of course not. Even Komen just ran 7:20 once. When you're talking a time like that, everything has to go right, and even then it's entirely possible that 7:54 is simply beyond Jakob's ability.
But there are rare times when athletes leap beyond what convention wisdom considers possible (e.g. Geb's 12:44, Komen's 7:20, Cheptegei's 2020 races, Radcliffe's 2:15, Coe's 1:41, Kipchoge's first Breaking-2). It's impossible to predict these races in advance, but I think there's a chance (although small) we'll see one here.
This distance and 3,000m are his sweet spot.
He doesn't have the wheels of El G at 1,500 nor the strength of Bekele at 5,000m.
But I really believe he could break this record and get close to the 3,000m.
He's marginally better than Katir and look how fast Katir has gone at 3,000m this year.
