Seriously? Has Kiplimo amputated a foot, because that is the only way the answer to this isn't Kiplimo win.
+1
On another note: Watching Kiplimo run this latest HM win is a joy.
His running style is perfect: Almost no twisting in the upper body, feet and legs pointing directly forward, high knees and gravity and possibly one of the most relaxed runners on the circuit at the moment. Quite similar to Kipchoge.
In comparison Cheptegei seems to a have a more heavy running style.
That’s the race we are waiting for, Kiplimo v Kipchoge in the marathon. I wish Kiplimo had pulled a Hassan, and rather than bothering with the NYC half, he’d have entered Boston this year just to see how he’d fare off his current training. Would he be able to take down the “old man?” He’d still be ready for the 10 in Budapest regardless, so why not? If you want a late night fantasy race, that’s it, not Grant v Kiplimo in the half. Grant v Kiplimo in Budapest will be far more interesting and is going to happen.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Notions of what "shape" people are in or how times at other distances convert are kind of meaningless. You've got to run the races. Who knows, maybe Fisher finds he doesn't have the engine for anything above the 10k. It's too hard to say until he runs one.
All ran their serious halves without supershoes. And still Kipchoge ran under an hour en route in a full! All moved to the roads when in 26:50+ shape. Yes there’s a chance Grant doesn’t translate at all to the roads but that would mean he’d run only 59 minutes low. If he is pretty good on the roads mid-58s feels realistic if not likely. To be clear this is at Valencia and not a hilly course like NYC.
On another note: Watching Kiplimo run this latest HM win is a joy.
His running style is perfect: Almost no twisting in the upper body, feet and legs pointing directly forward, high knees and gravity and possibly one of the most relaxed runners on the circuit at the moment. Quite similar to Kipchoge.
In comparison Cheptegei seems to a have a more heavy running style.
That’s the race we are waiting for, Kiplimo v Kipchoge in the marathon. I wish Kiplimo had pulled a Hassan, and rather than bothering with the NYC half, he’d have entered Boston this year just to see how he’d fare off his current training. Would he be able to take down the “old man?” He’d still be ready for the 10 in Budapest regardless, so why not? If you want a late night fantasy race, that’s it, not Grant v Kiplimo in the half. Grant v Kiplimo in Budapest will be far more interesting and is going to happen.
My thoughts exactly. If he hypothetically joined last minute who are you taking? It sounds crazy but with Kiplimos current form and how he handles hills would it be shocking if he beat Kipchoge? No real strategy needed, just follow Kipchoge and try to hang on.
Also, why would Grant even consider doing that slow slog type of race? Should stick to the events he's a world beater in, 5-10000. That's where the money and fame are. 3000 is also good. He loves and is a god at 4 minute pace
Basically I look at Grant as a specimen. A phenomenal athlete who looks like a complete stud running. Unreal powerful strides and has the power and pure speed to match the legends, which Kiplomo is not. Kiplimo is like a weird 3rd world frail child next to Grant. Has no athletic prowess or anything i'd like to watch as a fan.
I mean Kiplimo always beat Grant and probably would’ve beaten Grant back in 2019 when he literally was a frail 3rd world child. I mean he ran 7:27 at 19 and Grant ran 7:28 at 26
This thread is strange because it's just two completely separate questions put into one.
Can Grant Fisher, the fastest American distance runner ever, run under 59 minutes in the half? What about 58:30? This is it's own interesting question. American runners historically have a lot of difficulty translating track times to the half and full. Of course with 26:33, Fisher is one of the quickest ever, and looking at Eliud and Kiplimo, his 'ceiling' at the half and full could be 2:01, 57:30 or quicker. But of course it's not so easy to just directly achieve your absolute human ceiling.
Anyways, completely separately, theres Jacob Kiplimo, the absolute most prodigious talent at road running, specifically the half-marathon, we have ever seen. He's broken 58 minutes on three occasions, including a completely solo 57:31 WR. He easily dispatched Aregawi at world XC, who just went on to run 26:3x on the road, again mostly solo in rain if i'm not mistaken. Anyways, for Kiplimo, the question is can he break 57 minutes, and perhaps how close to 56:30 can he get?
These two being in the same race doesn't really mean anything. Going with Kiplimo in a WR setting means opening in 27 flat on the road. It's suicide for almost anyone, but especially Fisher, at least until he shows he has sub 58 in his wheelhouse.
Notions of what "shape" people are in or how times at other distances convert are kind of meaningless. You've got to run the races. Who knows, maybe Fisher finds he doesn't have the engine for anything above the 10k. It's too hard to say until he runs one.
All ran their serious halves without supershoes. And still Kipchoge ran under an hour en route in a full! All moved to the roads when in 26:50+ shape. Yes there’s a chance Grant doesn’t translate at all to the roads but that would mean he’d run only 59 minutes low. If he is pretty good on the roads mid-58s feels realistic if not likely. To be clear this is at Valencia and not a hilly course like NYC.
Kipchoge ran a serious half in supershoes back in 2016. He ran 59:44. Farah ran the GNR in supershoes in 2017 and 2018 when he was still close to his peak and ran 59:29.
I think all three could probably have run sub-59 if they had wanted to buy I can also see why they wouldn't have cared. What meaning does running sub-59 have to guys who have multiple Olympic and World gold medals? They'd have been more interested in racing for the win than the time in any HM.
So, in that respect, Fisher probably has greater motivation than those three to run sub-59. The likelihood is that he never wins a global medal let alone a gold medal (before I'm jumped on for this: I do think he has a good chance of a medal, but he's one of maybe 8 guys who can medal in his events so it's not a given), so times and national records have more meaning for him. It would also mean Fisher taking a different career route to most American road runners. He's very unlikely to run sub-59 in the US so he'd need to get out to Valencia, Lisbon, or RAK. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if he never broke 60 if he only ran HMs in the US.
I don't think any of this undercuts my main point which is that predicting someone's time in the HM based on their results in other events is extremely difficult.
Let's assume Grant is still in Sub-26:40 10K fitness as of right now and trains for 7 months in preparation for the Valencia Half Marathon against Jacob Kiplimo right now.
Mo Farah ran 59:07 in Great North run back in like 2019. He was clearly not in Sub 27 10k fitness in 2019 as he had transitioned to the Marathon. His debut Half Marathon was in 1:00:00
As for Bekele and Kipchoge, they had very little incentive to compete at the Half. The Main Money was on the Marathon. But honestly, you really believe a guy capable of averaging two 1:00:35 Half Marathons to finish a Marathon couldn't be capable of breaking 59? Kipchoge trained daily with Geoffrey Kamworor back in 2019. When Kamo hit 58:01. And even if INEOS 1:59 was a massive experiment he put a 59:57 and 59:43 Half Marathon back-to-back. He even opened his 2:01:09 Marathon with a 59:51 Half Marathon.
Bekele was never destined for the Half Marathon, in his 26:17 10K fitness he would've 99.999% gone under 59:00. But hard to speculate when it didn't occur.
Grant is definitely in Sub-1 Half fitness BARE MINIMUM.
He barely cracks 13 years ago and now all of a sudden was within 2 seconds of the Indoor World Record at 5K and the only 3 people faster than him are:
Kenenisa Bekele (12:49.60) Indoor
Haile Gebrselassie (12:50.38) Indoor
Daniel Komen (12:51.48) Indoor
Literally these are Sub-12:40 5K guys / Guys with Insane 3k pr's the slowest 3k among these 3 is Bekele (7:25.79). When the hell has Woody EVER displayed even Sub-7:30 3000 speed?
Anyways, completely separately, theres Jacob Kiplimo, the absolute most prodigious talent at road running, specifically the half-marathon, we have ever seen. He's broken 58 minutes on three occasions, including a completely solo 57:31 WR. He easily dispatched Aregawi at world XC, who just went on to run 26:3x on the road, again mostly solo in rain if i'm not mistaken. Anyways, for Kiplimo, the question is can he break 57 minutes, and perhaps how close to 56:30 can he get?
Grant has talked about wanting to do a half in some interviews, but he has been focusing on shorter races and didn't have room in the schedule. Maybe next year we will see it. I think he has good potential at the distance, but Jakob and Cheptegei's attempts at longer distances have taught us not to put crazy expectations on runners in their debut.
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