Note from Rojo: This thread was initially titled, "NCAA top 16 improvements men distance" but we changed it to make it more descriptive. I appreciate the OP's research but his data reveals the exact opposite of what he or she concluded. Their own data reveals the average yearly improvement from 2020 to now is much greater than from 2010 to 2020.
The data reveals in the mile that from 2010 to 2020, the average improvement was .108 seconds per year. Since then, it's been 0.67 seconds per year so that's 620% more per year.
The data reveals in the 3k that from 2010 to 2020, the average imporvement was 0.642 saconds per year. Since then it's been 1.1833 seconds per year. That's an 84% improvement.
For the 5k, the average improvement per year from 2010 to 2020 was 1.262 seconds per year. Since then it's been 2.23 seconds per year - a 76.7% improvement.
Shoes matter A LOT. Go ask Andy Powell, Jerry S, Dave Smith, Jason Vigilante, etc. Hell ask any college coach that has been at the same school for 10 years. They haven't changed their coaching but their guys are suddenly way faster.
Here is a story I wrote comparing things from 2021 to 2019:
Another data point. Johnny G ran 3:49 pre 'super spikes' when Kejelcha ran the WR. In this thread I stated they help a second per mile or less (i lean more to less).. But let's say it's a second. You're saying I'm wrong and it's more than a second per mile. So you're saying Johnny G a couple years ago would have run 3:47 or better and have the world record if he had new spikes? I don't really think that's accurate.
There's good reason to suspect that the shoes don't interact with running ability equally among individuals. It's very likely that the shoes help the good runner a lot more than they help the great runner. Part of running talent is (or at least was) getting great energy return from the track. You know this when you see it in a runner. Seems logical to me that the shoes do less for a Sebastian Coe than they would for an NCAA 4:02 miler (who is now a 3:59 miler).
If you use this as evidence, then you could maybe say the 'super spikes' make you run zero to one second faster per mile you're racing. Really I'd say this is evidence that they don't make you faster, and the NCAA has been getting faster consistently, and we saw similar improvement the past few years as we've been seeing. Saying a 13:20 guy today would only be 13:30 before the new spikes is a ridiculous statement.
This isn't a "hot" take, it's delusional. Yes, a 13:20 guy today would only be 13:30ish before the new spikes and arguing otherwise is ridiculous. I've used the new shoes/spikes and the old and we've seen the data among pro, NCAA and high school runners; the difference since super shoes is undeniable. I'm sure the conversion is different for everyone, but 3-4 seconds a mile seems pretty fair (so 9-12 seconds in a 5k).
My 5th year senior year in 1980, the mile qualifying for indoor was 4:04.
And by 2000 it was around 4:00. So a second quicker every 5 or 6 years. Except I'd argue there has been a massive improvement with high school training in the past 15 years due to the expanded use of the internet, and now in the past 10 years these guys have come through the NCAA system, more and more high schoolers are running sub 4:10 and even sub 4. They take those already fast times and keep improving in college making college faster than ever. So if times were already improving steadily before the 2000's, now it's improving even faster. Eventually it'll slow down once every program does what's proven to be the best training, but we're not quite there yet.
And by 2000 it was around 4:00. So a second quicker every 5 or 6 years. Except I'd argue there has been a massive improvement with high school training in the past 15 years due to the expanded use of the internet, and now in the past 10 years these guys have come through the NCAA system, more and more high schoolers are running sub 4:10 and even sub 4. They take those already fast times and keep improving in college making college faster than ever. So if times were already improving steadily before the 2000's, now it's improving even faster. Eventually it'll slow down once every program does what's proven to be the best training, but we're not quite there yet.
Yes, you can't overlook the training improvements over the past 10 to 15 years. Every high school student today trains much better than the same cohort did 15 years ago. This goes all the way down to the bumble-hick cornfield towns that don't even have a track. Their coaches can get a detailed pro-level training plan and adjust it to the times their runners are hitting. They also see the race results of every other runner in the state, so they know where they need to get to.
All these better trained runners means they have to be better to win their local meet, win their regional or win their state meet. Multiply that by thousands of runners every year for 15 years, then they continue their improved training through college and pros, and this is a main reason that there is a flourishing of track and field right now. Even if the shoes are deemed illegal, we aren't going back to the times that were being run 15 years ago.
My 5th year senior year in 1980, the mile qualifying for indoor was 4:04.
And by 2000 it was around 4:00. So a second quicker every 5 or 6 years.
Using 1980 data is not helpful. In 1980, there were no 200m banked tracks (maybe Harvard?) or 300m tracks. Those athletes qualifying for NCAAs in 1980 almost certainly did it on 10 or 11 lap tracks or 200m flat tracks (but there weren't very many of those). Today, the NCAA would convert that 4:04 to 4:01, so the time improved 1 second over 20 years, not 4.
And by 2000 it was around 4:00. So a second quicker every 5 or 6 years. Except I'd argue there has been a massive improvement with high school training in the past 15 years due to the expanded use of the internet, and now in the past 10 years these guys have come through the NCAA system, more and more high schoolers are running sub 4:10 and even sub 4. They take those already fast times and keep improving in college making college faster than ever. So if times were already improving steadily before the 2000's, now it's improving even faster. Eventually it'll slow down once every program does what's proven to be the best training, but we're not quite there yet.
Yes, you can't overlook the training improvements over the past 10 to 15 years. Every high school student today trains much better than the same cohort did 15 years ago. This goes all the way down to the bumble-hick cornfield towns that don't even have a track. Their coaches can get a detailed pro-level training plan and adjust it to the times their runners are hitting. They also see the race results of every other runner in the state, so they know where they need to get to.
All these better trained runners means they have to be better to win their local meet, win their regional or win their state meet. Multiply that by thousands of runners every year for 15 years, then they continue their improved training through college and pros, and this is a main reason that there is a flourishing of track and field right now. Even if the shoes are deemed illegal, we aren't going back to the times that were being run 15 years ago.
If you took away the shoes, the times would go back to 2019. In other words, 3+ seconds per mile slower on average.
How about faster World Athletic Qualifying standards and the new ranking system? After that change there have been more time trial style races with very fast times rather than slow tactical races.
Time trials have been going on forever. We did time trial style races when I was in college in the 90s to get qualifying times for NCAA.
This is true on the TT comment..however..not nearly at the amount and frequency of today. There are/were pacers in the Penn State National..Indoor meet, which was very lightly attended. You have set up races in almost every single event..even "for Title" racing ala Millrose NB etc. In fact all the way down to HS with frequency now. It is different..how much? I think most would agree way much more often..LOL
Yes, you can't overlook the training improvements over the past 10 to 15 years. Every high school student today trains much better than the same cohort did 15 years ago. This goes all the way down to the bumble-hick cornfield towns that don't even have a track. Their coaches can get a detailed pro-level training plan and adjust it to the times their runners are hitting. They also see the race results of every other runner in the state, so they know where they need to get to.
All these better trained runners means they have to be better to win their local meet, win their regional or win their state meet. Multiply that by thousands of runners every year for 15 years, then they continue their improved training through college and pros, and this is a main reason that there is a flourishing of track and field right now. Even if the shoes are deemed illegal, we aren't going back to the times that were being run 15 years ago.
If you took away the shoes, the times would go back to 2019. In other words, 3+ seconds per mile slower on average.
^ This. From 2010-2013 both indoor and outdoor mile times for US top 100 average improved about 1.5 seconds or so (maybe 2). Average in 2010 and ‘11 was about 4:03.5 - 4:04. and it moved down to around 4:02 and remained. From 2013-2019 there is really not much improvement if any. When there was a fast year, the next year times wouldn’t be as fast. 2019 was around 4:01 - 4:02. By 2021 things had changed. US top 100 had never averaged under 4:00 since 2010 (and probably ever) until 2021 when it dropped below 3:59. 2022 was the same average and indoor 2023 it remained the same (3:58 something). If there is a new trend, mile times for US top 100 will have improved ~2.5 - 3 seconds since 2019. I’ll go back to 2000 and put up averages for 23 years. Mile time improvement isn’t as noticeable as the 5000m and 10000m (where it’s really noticeable). So, could argue that improvement is the same as 2010-14. Maybe, but not if we look at 3000m - 10000m times. There is no denying that there is an enormous improvement in times from 2019-21 right around the time more athletes started adopting the new shoes.
I don’t know if training improved much at the collegiate level. Certainly the knowledge gap has closed at the high school level where coaches no longer just make it up as they go. However I feel more emphasis is on the overall lifestyle in regards to optimizing recovery. As a high schooler and college runner in the 2000s we probably burned the candle at both ends and didn’t always have the healthiest diets.
Also everyone is traveling to the same meets to run in paced races in state of the art facilities.
The shoes are a factor, but as stated before you still have to be in really good shape. I think the improvement is 4 fold.
1. Lots of older kids with Covid years.
2. Athletes being way better prepared coming out of high school. I was top 10 nationally my senior year and could not do a pull up. It was standard that freshmen year was pure adjustment.
3. The top kids go to the top programs, and with Cost of Attendance, the top internationals go to the top schools too. Getting a full ride and a full COA is a better deal than being pro in Europe or North Africa.
4. the meets are way better. These set up meets allow for more kids to hit fast times. BU is awesome. Think about this German Fernandez ran 3:55 solo in a non rabbited race in an early season Arkansas quad meet in ‘09. That was the leading mark
I like you taking the time to do this. I wish the super seniors wasn't an issue to make the date even cleaner.
Regardless, your grasp of stats isn't very good. Your data reveals the exact opposite of what you conclude. Your data reveals the average yearly improvement from 2020 to now is massively improved from 2010 to 2020.
Your data reveals in the mile that from 2010 to 2020, the average improvement was .108 seconds pera year. Since then, it's been 0.67 seconds per year so that's 620% more per year.
Your data reveals in the 3k that from 2010 to 2020, the average imporvement was 0.642 saconds per year. Since then it's been 1.1833 seconds per year. That's an 84% improvement.
For the 5k, the average improvement per year from 2010 to 2020 was 1.262 seconds per year. Since then it's been 2.23 seconds per year - a 76.7% improvement.
Shoes matter A LOT. Go ask Andy Powell, Jerry S, Dave Smith, Jason Vigilante, etc. Hell ask any college coach that has been at the same school for 10 years. They haven't changed their coaching but their guys are suddenly way faster.
PS. I'd really like you to use 2019 as the cutoff year as that's the year the collegians started getting super spikes. I assume most didn't have it indoors that year but by 2020 they did. So your data is already starting to be skewed in 2020.
We've compared the 2021 and 2019 NCAA times and the distance times are faster in 2021, while the sprint times are not, showing the super spike impact is real.
PS. I'd really like you to use 2019 as the cutoff year as that's the year the collegians started getting super spikes. I assume most didn't have it indoors that year but by 2020 they did. So your data is already starting to be skewed in 2020.
The spikes didn't exist in January/February 2020. First I heard of them about to come through was at the olympic trials marathon February 2020 from a Nike employee who said they were about to be released. The 2020 season zero college athletes had the new spikes. I'd love to see some proof that they did have them, I am very sure no one had them. So no, my data is not being skewed by 2020.
And your description on changing the title of the thread says that it proves there was a massive jump. What do you consider a massive jump? The jump from 2020 was less than 2 seconds in the mile, 3 seconds in the 3k, and like 5 seconds in the 5k. The jumps from 2010-2015 and 2015-2020 were very much in line with that. If you take data from 2020 to now and say there was an X improvement in times, you absolutely cannot say the shoes make you X amount faster because times have been consistently getting better. So by this you must say the shoes make you less than 2 seconds faster in a mile, less than 3 seconds in a 3k, and less than 5 seconds faster in a 5k. I would argue it's closer to 0 than the total amount of time improvements.
And one last edit. Your analysis of 2021 includes seniors who were supposed to graduate in 2020. So you had an extra class of athletes in the NCAA system. You have to remove the athletes who were in their 5th year of eligibility. Everyone knows distance runners aren't at their peak during college, they keep getting better for a bit so that extra year of eligibility greatly helps the distance runners, more so than sprinters. A lot of sprinters are already at their peak by age 22
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
4. the meets are way better. These set up meets allow for more kids to hit fast times. BU is awesome. Think about this German Fernandez ran 3:55 solo in a non rabbited race in an early season Arkansas quad meet in ‘09. That was the leading mark
BU seems to have races set up for fast times every weekend. Kind of like Stanford for the outdoor season. We never really had that before indoors as many schools didn’t put much effort into racing fast over the winter.
Washington and Notre Dame did offer some opportunities to run fast but not like we have today.
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