rojo wrote:
I put this thread on the HP a few days ago but hadn't even read it. Amazing thread. I've been thinking recently each year I should publish an article, "These are the only athletes that should go pro (or that I"d sign if I was a shoe company)." But that article is basically this.
I feel like shoe companies often do a HORRIBLE job of IDing talent. Maybe they'll hire me as a consultant and I'll just off shore it to the message board. When I was coaching at Cornell, I said, "I don't recruit times. I recruit talent." Shoe companies should realize they are doing the same - accomplishments and times are fine but ultimately you want talent.
Yes! And the two people I specifically spoke to about this from the shoe industry realized this as well. They would agree with you that the "fastest runner gets the contracts" is not always the smartest path forward.
It has to be about more than just times because unlike Moneyball and Sabermetrics, branding is not just about wins. In baseball, winning the World Series is the only goal. It doesn't matter to most fans who is playing third base if the team is winning. But in running there are a lot of intangibles and alternate paths towards a "winning season."
For example, you could argue that Keely is worth more than Athing Mu (to a shoe company) because she is racing more. I think Mu is the better runnerwith the higher ceiling, but the amount of racing might mean a lot to a shoe company.