How long before Colin Sahlman leaves NAU

Yes, he had a poor first XC season given the lofty credentials coming in. No, of course he doesn't need to leave the program because of it. He'll be just fine.

Wasn’t this dude’s last HS race June 15th @ Brook’s PR? Or did he go longer?

Assuming he took a break after a long ass XC—>indoor—>outdoor stretch, is it unreasonable to think this kid didn’t start running again until almost July?

Granted, Brosnan doesn’t like breaks and neither does Mike Smith, but transitioning from one program to another is a lot different than going between seasons at your current school.

NCAA/USAs qualifiers in track can start up again in July and be just fine. They are older and have that fat Mile Smith base. This guy hasn’t prepped for a 10k in his life and just came off a HS season where he was running 800s on the backend. Give him some grace. I think he is going to fly once he gets in that foundation he wasn’t able to get. Colin with a high threshold, coupled with that speed he developed? Future ncaa champ.

If I had to guess I bet he's having trouble adjusting to the increased training volume and combine that with year-round living at 7000+ feet. NBP was a not a higher mileage program. His body prolly just needs a year to adapt and should be good to go by fall of 2023.

Recall that even the great Katelyn Tuohy hit road bumps initially in college before really taking off.

He had a decent season considering they were planning on redshirting until October 14th.

151st in D1 XC is not bad, he was ahead of Gary Martin and finished really close to some top athletes (less than a second behind Yasin Sado of UVA who has run 13:42 and 8:33 steeplechase) and about 2 seconds behind 13:36 runner Porter of UVA. He beat NCAA 1500m champ and 3:51 miler Waskom of UW and he beat Olympian Trippas of Princeton.

101st place was James Mwaura who is a stud with 13:30 and 27:40 PRs. Eliud Kipsang was 97th and he's run 1:46, 3:33 and 13:39. This just shows that to break into the top 100 at NCAA's is EXTREMELY HARD.

I'd say about 3.5-4 years, when he graudates.

He got 27th at the Mountain Regional, with a lot of very good, experienced runners ahead of him. He ran 23s for 8k earlier in the season. A week after regionals, at nationals, he was likely cooked from that 10k, his first, and underperformed. When you look at top xc times, he was probably pretty competitive with freshman times of past greats, especially those making a transition not from 5000s on the track but 800s and miles. As with a lot of Mike Smith athletes, he'll be flying in time, assuming he stays the course. Remember that for a prospect this great, expectations are a lot higher, so it is possible he doesn't stick at NAU out of frustration. I expect that there will be solid track results by the end of outdoors, something to inspire for next year.

I am not sure if he is ever going to be a great XC runner. Personally, I think NAU is a bad fit, his 1:48 flat 800m says he is most likely a pure middle-distance runner. Athletes like that can be great at H.S. XC, but the extra NCAA distance is where they top out. I think if he sticks with it, he can become much better at XC but that might be at the expense of what he is better at. When I was coaching H.S. athletes, sometimes I steered them away from programs competing for XC titles. Unfortunately, I have seen talented MD athletes who physically fall apart from a couple years of intense XC and never recover. You will burn out a Porshe trying get it to do the things meant for a Ford F150.

Nobody with experience or intelligence viewed him as the great of all time. He's very good, but the NCAA is also very good. He's just another 3:56 miler or whatever he ran.

The other high school 3:56 (or better) milers where Jim Ryun and Alan Webb...

Why do we think this? Because he ran a fast 800m? What if he didn’t have that 800m time but still had all his 3000m, 3200m, and XC performances (on various courses, not just road races). We wouldn’t even consider for a second that he is a middle distance runner.

Just because someone runs a fast 800m time for a high schooler doesn’t mean he is a middle distance runner. The dude ran 3:39 in the 1500m. He better have sub 1:50 speed or darn near close to it. Look at Ingebrigsten. 1:46.44 800m PR. But he is considered a strength based 1500m runner—but really a 5000m dude in terms of potential. Fast 1500m requires solid enough speed and solid enough strength. On the all-time list, Colin is more relevant as you increase the distance, not decrease it. NAU is a good fit.

Nico was third or fourth or something his freshman year.

How many 1:48 flat 800m runners do you know also have a 14:03 5k? And why would Mike Smith want to invest significant time and resources on an athlete that may not be a good fit with burn out potential? The idea isn't to turn a Porsche into an F150, it's to have the speed of a Porsche with the strength of an F150.

The best range I have ever seen in college would be another Lumberjack…. The great Lopez. Pretty sure he was top 4 in xc in 07 and ran 1:44 that spring.

But give the kid a few months. He is realllllly good. Going to run super fast. Go see what Centro ran as a freshmen

I don't think I'm imagining it. His form already looks way better. He was all over the place with his upper body in HS. Nico was worse. They both seem to have a major improvement in this, really quickly.

Does anyone know if the coaches pull apart that form and rebuild it??

Been around the Big Sky conference for a long time… and noticed that almost no one transfers out of NAU. I can’t really even think of one.

Wickets every week. I think it has a huge impact.

As bad a decision as it is beginning to look like for Colin, it is that much worse for Aaron. Like Alan Webb going back to his HS coach to find his mojo, the Sahlmans should go back to Brosnan pronto.

You mean like literally no one? Because Tristian Merchant transferred to Liberty. But obviously that’s an incredibly odd move that must have been motivated by religious reasons. If you mean more figuratively no one, then you have a point.