You don’t understand how difficult it is to break Komen. Unlikely that man has been born yet.
This is an exaggeration. Wale got within .1 of his record indoors in January and didn't even count the laps correctly. We have seen a slew of times between 7:24-7:26 over the last few years, largely indoors. Its only a matter of time before someone of Jakob or Kiplimo's caliber takes a real stab at it with pacing lights outdoors and gets close.
There were hardly any fast 3,000s after Komen. Now that the 3,000 is a staple on the DL + pacing lights, someone will get close to the record. Thierry Ndikumwenayo is running the same 3K times as Bekele/Haile, the game has changed.
You want to bet on that? There might not have been many fast 3000's after Komen but not for lack of trying. The WR holders over 1500-10000m who are all-time greats (in the case of Bekele and El G the greatest 1500/miler and 5/10 guy), all went after it and the closest we got was 2.42 seconds. Pacing lights certainly help - but more so over the 5 and 10km and they can't overcome athletic ability.
This is an exaggeration. Wale got within .1 of his record indoors in January and didn't even count the laps correctly. We have seen a slew of times between 7:24-7:26 over the last few years, largely indoors. Its only a matter of time before someone of Jakob or Kiplimo's caliber takes a real stab at it with pacing lights outdoors and gets close.
There were hardly any fast 3,000s after Komen. Now that the 3,000 is a staple on the DL + pacing lights, someone will get close to the record. Thierry Ndikumwenayo is running the same 3K times as Bekele/Haile, the game has changed.
You want to bet on that? There might not have been many fast 3000's after Komen but not for lack of trying. The WR holders over 1500-10000m who are all-time greats (in the case of Bekele and El G the greatest 1500/miler and 5/10 guy), all went after it and the closest we got was 2.42 seconds. Pacing lights certainly help - but more so over the 5 and 10km and they can't overcome athletic ability.
El G ran the 3K once and Bekele's PR came in a race where he went out in 5:00 through 2K with a 2:25 last K. The lack of fast 3Ks is absolutely from a dearth of quality 3K races. Now that its a regular race on the DL, we have seen a huge uptick in fast times.
If Wale can run 7:24 indoors, its not long before an "A" level talent like Jakob is pushing low 7:20's in Monaco.
You want to bet on that? There might not have been many fast 3000's after Komen but not for lack of trying. The WR holders over 1500-10000m who are all-time greats (in the case of Bekele and El G the greatest 1500/miler and 5/10 guy), all went after it and the closest we got was 2.42 seconds. Pacing lights certainly help - but more so over the 5 and 10km and they can't overcome athletic ability.
El G ran the 3K once and Bekele's PR came in a race where he went out in 5:00 through 2K with a 2:25 last K. The lack of fast 3Ks is absolutely from a dearth of quality 3K races. Now that its a regular race on the DL, we have seen a huge uptick in fast times.
If Wale can run 7:24 indoors, its not long before an "A" level talent like Jakob is pushing low 7:20's in Monaco.
And yet still nobody within 4 seconds of Komens record. I can appreciate your logic but it's not that simple.
You can bring up "lack of quality 3k races", non "A-level talents" like Wale running under 7.25 (just), shoes, pacing lights but it boils back down to this. Komen was a 3.46 low miler and ran under 12.40 - that's the level you need to be to even think about that type of time. Jakob isn't even quicker than Komen over the mile yet and isn't close in the 5k.
You might want to add in there some eye-popping (yellowing) sh-t that Komen was on that particular day and you see the gravity of it.
El Guerrouj at 3.43 and 12.50 in the season he ran 4.44 (secretly his most insane record) "only" managed 7.23.09.
So let's think about this another way - are pacing lights and "super spikes" pumping out 3.46/12.39 runners? If they aren't then simple "more races" doesn't mean anything. Let's remember this thread and check back in end of the next outdoor season and see if we even have any performances in the 7.23.5 range. Deal?
Komen was a 3.46 low miler and ran under 12.40 - that's the level you need to be to even think about that type of time. Jakob isn't even quicker than Komen over the mile yet and isn't close in the 5k.
El Guerrouj at 3.43 and 12.50 in the season he ran 4.44 (secretly his most insane record) "only" managed 7.23.09.
Let's remember this thread and check back in end of the next outdoor season and see if we even have any performances in the 7.23.5 range. Deal?
You have a point, but how can you explain Thierry Ndikumwenayo's 7,25 high last year? His other pb's are maybe not maxed out, but with 3,37 and 12,59, he is 9 and 11 seconds slower than for example Jakob. Give Thierry some credit and say 4 and 6 seconds slower than Jakob.
Komen was a 3.46 low miler and ran under 12.40 - that's the level you need to be to even think about that type of time. Jakob isn't even quicker than Komen over the mile yet and isn't close in the 5k.
El Guerrouj at 3.43 and 12.50 in the season he ran 4.44 (secretly his most insane record) "only" managed 7.23.09.
Let's remember this thread and check back in end of the next outdoor season and see if we even have any performances in the 7.23.5 range. Deal?
You have a point, but how can you explain Thierry Ndikumwenayo's 7,25 high last year? His other pb's are maybe not maxed out, but with 3,37 and 12,59, he is 9 and 11 seconds slower than for example Jakob. Give Thierry some credit and say 4 and 6 seconds slower than Jakob.
Then why shouldn't Jakob be able to run 7,23
I could easily explain it. Monaco, perfect race for him, possibly a peak career moment, could be doing things we don't know about. Ali Saidi-Sief ran 7.25.02 - do you know who that guy is?
The thing is we are close to agreeing here because I think Jakob can get very close to running 7.23. In fact I predicted on another thread that he's going to run 7.24.3X in Lievin and break the world indoor record over 3000m later this month (or Feb, whenever it is). So even though I think that running 3000m indoors has no massive disadvantage to running outdoors like many do (I base this on the trade-off of the banked track, the climate advantages and the speed of running which isn't fast enough to be adversely affected by the increase in curve running), I do think in a fast outdoor race due to its timing in the season that Jakob can run under 7.24 (maybe 23.6/7ish). I don't think he can run under 7.23 and I certainly don't think he can get even close to that WR which is what I thought the discussion was (not 7.23 but breaking the WR). Sorry if I got that wrong.
I could easily explain it. Monaco, perfect race for him, possibly a peak career moment, could be doing things we don't know about. Ali Saidi-Sief ran 7.25.02 - do you know who that guy is?
I know who that guy is. But he was much quicker than Thierry, 3,29 and 12,50...and busted for nandrolone!
I know who that guy is. But he was much quicker than Thierry, 3,29 and 12,50...and busted for nandrolone!
True story I was once pace-maked him in a 1500m race in Heraklion, Crete. He ran 3.32 something - fast race. Never for one second did I think he was clean - even then.
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