I like the list. I would rate McCabe 3rd but those spots are dead even. Valby is one or two. She could blow away the field or get oukicked again. Beats me.
Yeah, I honestly have a flip-flop of 3, 4, 5th with Chmiel, McCabe and Chelangat. Any of them could end up in any of those spots.
I like the list. I would rate McCabe 3rd but those spots are dead even. Valby is one or two. She could blow away the field or get oukicked again. Beats me.
Yeah, I honestly have a flip-flop of 3, 4, 5th with Chmiel, McCabe and Chelangat. Any of them could end up in any of those spots.
You could probably throw a blanket over my 7-15 as well. Could be very close finishes like at Nuttycombe with 3-4 runners within 1 second.
We’ve been predicting for months now on the “Way Too Early” thread. 50 pages and 987 posts of knowledge, observations and thought sharing. It’s been great!
Now The Big Dance is next weekend. The women have achieved all of the fitness they can at this point and are tapering and resting to be as fast as they can be this upcoming Saturday. So, who’ll win?
My personal predictions have NOTHING to do with overall finishing times on any given course during this 2022 XC season. They’re based on who’s raced whom, and who won in head-to-head battles, and how that compares to other women in the NCAA.
Not every woman has faced ALL of the competition during 2022. However, some women have raced enough of the various top guns in one race, and then in another race have faced some of the other top guns that by using them as a common reference competitor, predictions can be made. Through those various competitions and competitors, I came up with the following extremely solid predictions of the top-10 women:
1 Tuohy SO NC State (defeated Chelangat by 12 seconds in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Undefeated during 2022 season on some of the more difficult courses in the NCAA (ie: Nuttycombe)
2 Valby SO Florida (defeated Chelangat by 8 seconds @ SEC) Undefeated during 2022 season, ran possibly the fastest ever recorded 6k course in the history of the NCAA @ SEC in 18:25. Flat-fast courses during 2022 season
NOTE: 3, 4 & 5 could flip-flop in various ways: 3 Chmiel JR NC State (12 seconds behind Tuohy @ ACC)- has been within 5 seconds of Tuohy @ Nuttycombe). Placed ahead of Chelangat due to being closer to Tuohy in a longer and more challenging course.
4 Chelangat SR Alabama (12 seconds behind Tuohy in a 5k @ Joe Piane) Chelangat is ahead of McCabe based on the last time they were head-to-head was @ 2021 NCAA’s and Chelangat defeated her Ran possibly the 2nd fasted ever recorded 6k course in NCAA history at SEC in 18:33
5 McCabe JR West Virginia (2 seconds ahead of Roe @ Big 12) Undefeated during 2022 season
6 Roe SR Oklahoma State (handily showed her teammates who’s leading her team @ Big 12 by being far ahead of them when sprinting w/ McCabe)
7 Jepkirui FR Oklahoma State (6 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12)
8 Kemboi SR Utah Valley (defeated Stearns by 8 seconds @ Mountain Region)
10 Cook FR Oklahoma State (11 seconds behind Roe @ Big 12)
Regardless of how this all turns out. The fact that OSU has 3 women very strongly possibly finishing in the top-10 is incredible and very well may have a chance at winning the team title. I’m excited to watch this race!
Thoughts?
My selections from the Way Too Early thread remain unchanged (Looks like I’m the only one that rates Olemomoi!). Firming up my bottom three, I’ll go with 8 Markezich 9 Jepkirui 10 Tyynismaa, with Cook and the Mountain Region aces right behind them.
No argument here with those placing Chmiel ahead of McCabe. McCabe’s racing will speak for itself on Sat.
Bush ahead of Venters for me.
A big question is what kind of race Chelangat will run. When Tuohy inevitably starts to reel in the frontrunner, will Chelangat trust that, this time, she can keep up and match Tuohy’s close? Assuming she wants to win, rather than just reach the podium in her final XC Championship, seems like she has to do something different--maybe gamble with surges or a big move earlier than she would like. However it goes, I expect every prospective top 15 runner to deliver her best race of the season.
Too many biases by the same players here, with blinders on.
your contribution to the conversation is greatly appreciated...you are correct, people should change their predictions because you don't agree with them.
The strategy and the way this thing plays out was already explained well on the other thread, but is being ignored on this one.
Valby’s result does not factor into the TEAM results one iota. Nada. Therefore, only the idiot(s) will key off of, and chase Valby, while the TEAM winners will being keying off of the idiot(s), expecting to overtake them in the closing stages.
From a Wolfpack perspective, I don't think that team strategy is going to deter Tuohy (or Chmiel) from trying to win this race. At the ACC Championships, two Notre Dame runners took the race out extremely fast right from the gun, and Tuohy went with them hanging just behind them (and Chmiel hanging back a few seconds behind that lead group), before overtaking them about halfway through the race. Sure, I think Valby may likely try to take it out fast. But, obviously, the Stillwater course is a grinder, so even Valby is not going to take it out too fast, knowing that that could lead to her hitting a wall. It's going to be won in the last 1k with those hills. Tuohy and Chmiel, if not leading themselves, will keep the leaders within striking distance for the first 3-4k of the race, and then make their move over the last 1-2k.
You’re referring specifically to Tuohy. I agree she will have trouble holding back, which is why Chelangat, Roe, McCabe, etc. are going to be keying off of, and stalking Tuohy (not Valby). That will be the strategy for their TEAM’s best chances to the podium.
At the ACC Championships, two Notre Dame runners took the race out extremely fast right from the gun, and Tuohy went with them hanging just behind them (and Chmiel hanging back a few seconds behind that lead group), …
No disrespect to them, but they weren’t Valby, and this race is for all the marbles.
At the ACC Championships, two Notre Dame runners took the race out extremely fast right from the gun, and Tuohy went with them hanging just behind them (and Chmiel hanging back a few seconds behind that lead group), …
No disrespect to them, but they weren’t Valby, and this race is for all the marbles.
Yeah, well one of those Notre Dame runners was Olivia Markezich, who finished 11th last year at nationals. Markezich could be a top 10 runner this year. Are you that confident that Valby can run well on a course with these type of hills? I'm not. I wouldn't be shocked if Markezich beats Valby.
You’re referring specifically to Tuohy. I agree she will have trouble holding back, which is why Chelangat, Roe, McCabe, etc. are going to be keying off of, and stalking Tuohy (not Valby). That will be the strategy for their TEAM’s best chances to the podium.
Uh? You clearly did not watch any of Katelyn's races this season.
Katelyn has never led a race from the gun, she just let anyone do their thing in the first half of the race, now if they fade out, she just maintains the pace and then takes the race in the last 1.5 kilometer.
You’re referring specifically to Tuohy. I agree she will have trouble holding back, which is why Chelangat, Roe, McCabe, etc. are going to be keying off of, and stalking Tuohy (not Valby). That will be the strategy for their TEAM’s best chances to the podium.
Chelangat is just as likely to try and stick with Valby; she did so at SECs.
But I agree- totally different ballgame for the runners going for team title (Roe, Chelangat, Tuohy) than an individual runner who can risk blowing up and it will only affect them (Valby). West Virginia in not in title contention so Mccabe can probably take risks as well, just a guess. It's a tricky situation.
You’re referring specifically to Tuohy. I agree she will have trouble holding back, which is why Chelangat, Roe, McCabe, etc. are going to be keying off of, and stalking Tuohy (not Valby). That will be the strategy for their TEAM’s best chances to the podium.
Chelangat is just as likely to try and stick with Valby; she did so at SECs.
But I agree- totally different ballgame for the runners going for team title (Roe, Chelangat, Tuohy) than an individual runner who can risk blowing up and it will only affect them (Valby). West Virginia in not in title contention so Mccabe can probably take risks as well, just a guess. It's a tricky situation.
I agree with you on McCabe able to take risk.
I think Valby is going to spin up until she hears a coach say “3 seconds” or “you got 5 seconds”. Until then, she’ll just continue to ramp it up.
Somebody’s going to crack. Others are going to watch, and try and meter it out for a hard close.
I'm sure she doesn't mind that she's not in the conversation, but look out for Kaylee Mitchell from Oregon State, who won the West region over the last 2k.
She was 4th at Nuttycombe and even though Oregon State has a solid number 2 runner in Grace Fetherstonhaugh, the Beavs don't have enough depth, so I think that those two are running for themselves.