Journalistic hyperbole.
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One of the most absurd exaggerations ever:
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carmine9 wrote:
I dont know or care wrote:
Yeah, the big error in your argument is that you are working off the assumption that they are all spectating the whole time. It's a 6 hour event. If you assume every spectator watches for ~30 minutes, then you are down to needing about 1 person per yard by your calculation... and honestly, most of those spectators are just chilling and waiting a few minutes for the person/people they are cheering for or just watching for a few minutes while they walk to get their morning coffee. Also, there is no requirement that spectators be at street level or even outside. There are a lot of people with apartments along the route who will host people or maybe just watch on and off throughout the day.
So, while I can't be sure either way, I'm inclined to trust the data scientists who do polling and crowd estimating to come up with their numbers vs your back of the napkin calculations. At the very least, it seems unlikely that 98.5+% of the people in NY are able to avoid spectating an event that is blocking off over 26 miles of their streets so your 100k number seem comically low... maybe 100k people on average over the 6 hour duration.
Most people are spectating the whole time.
Or much of it.
Your 30 minute assumption is absurd. It's not like different waves of specators are coming in every 30 minutes
The OP is right. No way 1 million spectators
This is funny because as a person with friends, I’d say the most common scenario is tracking where your friends will be and stopping along the course to see them pass, then moving along, but obviously you have a different experience.
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It is called lying wrote:
The media, corporations, running expos, coaches, churches, pretty much everyone - they all lie their faces off. This is mostly done by habit, but they will go above and beyond whenever a profit motive is involved. Gee, I wonder why there are a lot of people that don’t trust what they’re told these days.
Only it's not "lying" any more. It's "peddling a false narrative."
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FWIW, over 47K saw the race from being in the race.
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Interesting conversation and we'll never resolve it unless someone who actually does this explains how they arrive at the numbers.
I will say- look at video of NYC, Boston, from the 80's. It looked like a lot of people when security was much looser.
Specifically the Dual in the Sun Salazar Beardsley race. The crowds were on the street and parted as the runners came through.
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This is anecdotal, and perhaps there is a selection bias, but among my friends and coworkers about 50% of them had been watching the marathon at a certain point. As someone else pointed out, most people track their friends on the app and heads to the course to cheer them as they go through. They probably spend 5-15 minutes there; I do not know of anybody spectating for 6 hours. I also got invitations to have brunch from people with apartments overlooking the course, I suspect this is also fairly common. I don't know if the total would add to over a million, but would not be surprised if it does.
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I'm sure it's an exaggeration, but having run it for the first time this year (6th in my age division) it is crazy crowded for a course the length of a marathon. I've never seen anything like it.
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"You're all winners!!!"
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IlanZisser wrote:
It's a common belief that NYC Marathon attracts "Millions of Spectators". For example, see Jonathan Gault's summary of the latest Marathon season. However, is it true?
Let's settle for a Million. To get 1M spectators you need roughly 40,000 people per Mile, that's more than 20 for each Yard. There are two sides to the road, so we're talking about an average of 10 per yard on each side. All the way.
10 people per Yard is a lot. It's very crowded. If you look at the videos from the Marathon, you'll see that for most of the time, the boardwalks are practically empty. Even in Central Park, there aren't too many people around.
The number Million looks like an urban legend and I can't see how it's supported by facts. 100K might be way more accurate.
You know what, you're right. I was actually thinking yesterday how official numbers for these mass events are always inflated, and I think there's no way there were millions of people on the marathon course on Sunday. Lazy mistake on my part. I'm going to update the article. Thousands? Absolutely. But it's unlikely to be a million, especially multiple millions.
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Jonathan Gault wrote:
IlanZisser wrote:
It's a common belief that NYC Marathon attracts "Millions of Spectators". For example, see Jonathan Gault's summary of the latest Marathon season. However, is it true?
Let's settle for a Million. To get 1M spectators you need roughly 40,000 people per Mile, that's more than 20 for each Yard. There are two sides to the road, so we're talking about an average of 10 per yard on each side. All the way.
10 people per Yard is a lot. It's very crowded. If you look at the videos from the Marathon, you'll see that for most of the time, the boardwalks are practically empty. Even in Central Park, there aren't too many people around.
The number Million looks like an urban legend and I can't see how it's supported by facts. 100K might be way more accurate.
You know what, you're right. I was actually thinking yesterday how official numbers for these mass events are always inflated, and I think there's no way there were millions of people on the marathon course on Sunday. Lazy mistake on my part. I'm going to update the article. Thousands? Absolutely. But it's unlikely to be a million, especially multiple millions.
Sometimes I wonder if the letsrun crew could possibly be as dumb as they project, and then they go and post something like this. I'm sorry for doubting you. Don't forget to wear your helmet.
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malmo wrote:
Same as Macy's Thanksgiving Parade estimates. The numbers are wildly exaggerated.
The 74 Flyers Stanley Cup parade drew millions according to legend.
I figure estimates for NY Marathon spectators are based on an assumption that the whole city counts just because the course goes through five boroughs and you can’t avoid it.
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This topic was argued years ago. I believe Malmo and probably hardloper were involved. If so, there's bound to be some good stats produced. Someone could try and hunt it down if they really felt the desire.
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good ol' days wrote:
This topic was argued years ago. I believe Malmo and probably hardloper were involved. If so, there's bound to be some good stats produced. Someone could try and hunt it down if they really felt the desire.
We've done the calculations on both Macys and NYCM on LRC threads in the past. Neither are anywhere near a million.
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Jonathan Gault wrote:
You know what, you're right. I was actually thinking yesterday how official numbers for these mass events are always inflated, and I think there's no way there were millions of people on the marathon course on Sunday. Lazy mistake on my part. I'm going to update the article. Thousands? Absolutely. But it's unlikely to be a million, especially multiple millions.
A watershed moment for journalistic integrity, one of the top journalist's in world doing a retraction on a major issue
....one day politics will be reported without bias, ....baby steps
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Stats get even more wrong when you consider that over 2 miles of the race are on the Verrazano Narrows Bridge and the Queensboro Bridge where there are virtually zero spectators.
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"Whether it be the NYC Marathon, Chicago Marathon or the Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade, crowd estimates are notoriously wrong.
Two million spectators means there are 76,900 spectators per mile. So that’s what, 14.5 people crammed into every foot along the course, or 7 people deep on each side for each foot for 26 miles, shoulder to shoulder. That’s assuming everyone is only 1ft shoulder to shoulder.
Allow being packed at the shoulders 2 feet per person, that means the crowd is packed tight 14 deep on each side for 26 miles. That’s just not anywhere near accurate. Not even for 1st avenue or Central Park.
The first two miles have no crowd. Neither does mile 16. Significant portions of the course have sparse crowds, almost none at all: from 12 to 15 miles and again from 18 to 21.5 miles. So out of 26 miles you have a significant proportion of it -- 9.5 miles -- where the crowd is either sparse (6.5 miles) or non-existent (3 miles). Now you've got to cram that phantom 2 million people into 16.5 miles. Do you see where I'm going with this yet?"
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Back in the day, this is what First Avenue looked like, but only for about 1/4 mile, then the crowd was sparse, all the way to the Plaza. (Spanish Harlem, Mott Haven, Fifth Avenue, the Park and Central Park South).
https://imgur.com/a/OREej8M00
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