Should I aim higher than 3:30 after running a 1:34 HM?

FiguringOutMyGoalPace · 2022-10-17T15:27:16-04:00

I am running the Philadelphia Marathon in five weeks. My goal is to break 3:30. To gauge my fitness, I ran a half marathon this past weekend (my training plan indicated that I should run sub-1:37). My goal for the HM was to go through ten miles between 73 and 74 minutes, and then see what I could do for the last 5k - my expectation was that I would continue running approximately 7:20-7:25 pace and finish in 1:36-something. That wasn't what happened - I went through the ten mile mark at 74:05, and then closed in 20:15 for the last 5k, finishing in 1:34:20. This result makes me think I'm in better shape than I thought, and I am now curious if I should aim to run faster in this marathon. I have consistently run between 40-50 miles per week during this training block. I have done four 20 milers so far (all between 8:15 and 8:40 pace, easy and without straining). Each week, I also do some sort of interval workout / fartlek, as well as a 7-10 mile run at race pace (8:00). I have a 22 miler this weekend, a 20 miler next weekend, and then I start to taper with weeks of 38 miles, 20 miles, and then 10 miles on marathon week. Despite the half result, my inclination is to go out with the 3:30 group and then pick it up around mile 20 if I feel good, but was curious if LetsRun thinks I should go out faster. Other relevant info: I am a 32 year-old man. I was once a long sprinter with PRs of 24.2 / 52.6 / 2:02.7. I have run two previous marathons. In 2020, I ran 3:38 off about 35 MPW (with HM splits of 1:46 / 1:52). In 2021, I ran 3:57 (1:46 / 2:11) off similar mileage (although I only had a single 18 mile run during that block and a couple of weeks with low mileage because of various life obligations - I think both factors contributed to my blowing up in the second half of that marathon and was the reason I incorporated more long runs this year).

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3 years ago 10/18/2022 4:48pm EDT

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

In all modesty, I believe I'm somewhat of an authority on this. Yes, you have a good shot at breaking 3:30. That's an achievable goal, assuming the weather on race day is good for marathoning.

I ran half marathons in 1:36-1:38 a total of 6 times in the span of 2 years when I was 50 and 51. During those years I also ran marathons in 3:34, 3:37 and 3:39. If you ran a half in 1:34, you're definitely capable of running sub-3:30 for a full marathon, especially if you're younger than I was.

Good luck!

3 years ago 10/18/2022 9:52pm EDT

re: Negativesplitter

Negativesplitter wrote:
OP that taper is awfully extreme. 38/20/10? Two weeks at 40/20 is good. 12 miles the Sunday before, then 5/4/4/3/3/2.

5/4/4/3/3/2--I'm assuming the 2 is just a shakeout and a few strides?!

3 years ago 10/19/2022 12:22am EDT

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

I wrote a running calculator a while back (https://davethecanuck.github.io/runcalc/) and it can predict times for different distances based on your race history, with adjustments to favor predictions made by races that are closer in distance. You can include your age, altitude, and elevation gain/loss for your past races and predict future races for various scenarios of age/altitude/elevation. I think it works pretty well, so let me know what you think after you finish Philly.

By the way, the Philly marathon has about 830 ft elevation gain and loss so has some non-negligible hills, especially in the university district before the half. Assuming your half-marathon was a flat and fast course, my calculator predicts you'll run around 3:16/17 assuming you have trained for the distance and execute as well as you did your half.

I think that executing a full marathon is much harder than executing a half. Let's call it an even 3:20 for you based on your half. You'll definitely break 3:30 unless you do something stupid or the gods decide to laugh at you on that day. Good luck!

3 years ago 10/19/2022 7:12am EDT

re: jecht

jecht wrote:
Negativesplitter wrote:
OP that taper is awfully extreme. 38/20/10? Two weeks at 40/20 is good. 12 miles the Sunday before, then 5/4/4/3/3/2.
5/4/4/3/3/2--I'm assuming the 2 is just a shakeout and a few strides?!

It's an easy 2 miles. Usually seems to be about 90 secs per mile slower than MP.

3 years ago 11/25/2022 9:28am EST

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

I figured I would update this thread so it's useful in the future. I ended up running 3:26 with very even splits!

After a snafu with the porta potties pre-race (I was in back of a long line), I ended up starting one corral late and not being in a pace group. I think this was a good thing - I just ran on feel, reminding myself to slow down. I went through the 10k just under 49, the half just under 1:43, and the 30k just over 2:26. Going out conservatively was the correct move. There was a huge psychological benefit to passing people at the end - I wasn't really running any faster, but I felt like I was picking up steam.

I think my next goal is breaking 1:30 in a spring half marathon, and then seeing what I can do in a fall marathon next year (hopefully this one will be a little warmer). Thanks for the advice, LetsRun!

3 years ago 11/25/2022 9:36am EST

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

FiguringOutMyGoalPace wrote:
I figured I would update this thread so it's useful in the future. I ended up running 3:26 with very even splits!
After a snafu with the porta potties pre-race (I was in back of a long line), I ended up starting one corral late and not being in a pace group. I think this was a good thing - I just ran on feel, reminding myself to slow down. I went through the 10k just under 49, the half just under 1:43, and the 30k just over 2:26. Going out conservatively was the correct move. There was a huge psychological benefit to passing people at the end - I wasn't really running any faster, but I felt like I was picking up steam.
I think my next goal is breaking 1:30 in a spring half marathon, and then seeing what I can do in a fall marathon next year (hopefully this one will be a little warmer). Thanks for the advice, LetsRun!

Congrats, that's great! You ran smart and having had that experience you wil just get better and better.

3 years ago 11/25/2022 6:49pm EST

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

FiguringOutMyGoalPace wrote:
Thanks, all! There are 3:10, 3:20, and 3:30 pace groups - it seems like going out conservatively (with the 3:30 group or just in front of it) is the better play for me. In the half, I found passing people very beneficial, psychologically. Further, as a couple of people mentioned, it's pretty easy to blow up in a marathon.
(Also, I think the 5k split from the half is accurate - it is based off looking at my watch at mile marker 10, and then stopping my watch at the finish. I suppose the race organizers may have misplaced the mile marker, but if they did, I don't think it was by any significant amount.)

No. Go with the 3:20 group. Don't talk yourself into some BS 3:30 when you can run 3:20.

3 years ago 11/28/2022 9:39pm EST

re: FiguringOutMyGoalPace

FiguringOutMyGoalPace wrote:
I figured I would update this thread so it's useful in the future. I ended up running 3:26 with very even splits!
After a snafu with the porta potties pre-race (I was in back of a long line), I ended up starting one corral late and not being in a pace group. I think this was a good thing - I just ran on feel, reminding myself to slow down. I went through the 10k just under 49, the half just under 1:43, and the 30k just over 2:26. Going out conservatively was the correct move. There was a huge psychological benefit to passing people at the end - I wasn't really running any faster, but I felt like I was picking up steam.
I think my next goal is breaking 1:30 in a spring half marathon, and then seeing what I can do in a fall marathon next year (hopefully this one will be a little warmer). Thanks for the advice, LetsRun!

Good for you! This board can be crazy sometimes but you can train yourself to run faster with the tips from it. It certainly helped me.

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