Rupp was in 10,000AR shape and was going to Australia but that trip was cancelled. He instead raced the NY Half - on the old course, the pt 2 pt aided fast course on a perfect day. He didn’t break 60:30. Granted he fell but had he not he still would have not broken 60 and he got his azz handed to him WHILE in top 10,000 shape.
Rupp was in 10,000AR shape and was going to Australia but that trip was cancelled. He instead raced the NY Half - on the old course, the pt 2 pt aided fast course on a perfect day. He didn’t break 60:30. Granted he fell but had he not he still would have not broken 60 and he got his azz handed to him WHILE in top 10,000 shape.
4 things:
1. This was pre-Vaporflies.
2. Kinda hilly course, wasn't really aided.
3. Tactical race. Mo only ran 60 mid and he eventually went on to run low 59 (and he coulda run even faster).
4. He wore an allergy mask for most of the race.
Like I said I've blogged about this at length, I've gone down this research rabbit hole. Galen had the footspeed to break the AR he just didn't go for it.
He's in championship shape. Put him on a flat, fast course, with a decent weather and good competition. Surely he could go well under 60. Perhaps he could even go under 59. Running 28 flat 10k pace = 59:10 for perspective. Added bonus, there are no rails to trip on in road racing.
However fast it takes to outkick the guy in front of him in the last 150m.
He's in championship shape. Put him on a flat, fast course, with a decent weather and good competition. Surely he could go well under 60. Perhaps he could even go under 59. Running 28 flat 10k pace = 59:10 for perspective. Added bonus, there are no rails to trip on in road racing.
If Grant shows up for a half Mantz is going to appear and show him who's boss.
Exactly. The fact that Fisher is almost 10 seconds per mile faster in the 10000m is irrelevant for the HM. Maybe when Fisher breaks 26:00, he’ll have a shot against Mantz.
If he's in sub-60 shape, he should join Barega, Cheptegei & Kiplimo at the Great North Run.
But to answer yr question:
He wouldn't beat Mantz and he'd finish 2+ min behind JI.
How could Mantz possibly beat Fisher over a HM? Given that Fisher is about 10 seconds per mile faster than Mantz over 10000m, he’s going to be feeling significantly less stress at the same pace in an HM.
Right now? I think he would run right around 60:30 due to lack of specificity training. He should be able to take down Hall's AR with some specific training. I am not so sure he can get down to low 58s or sub 58. The E. Africans do dedicate a fair number of runners to doing just 1/2s because the money is good and they can run a lot of races. So, they do a ton of 1/2 specific training and are ready to run very fast whenever they race.
Rupp has done a couple of them in top shaped. Speculation is not necessary. This experiment has been held. Broke 60 once. We know exactly what he could do if everything - course, pacers, weather, shoes, fitness - were perfectly aligned. Didn't break 60 that time. No possibility Rupp can go under 59 at any time under any circumstance. If he could, he would have. His marathon and half ARs are theoretical, not literal.
Now, can Grant do it? Maybe. I'd vote no. At least guesses could be right or not. In Rupp's case, he's already tried. No guesswork is needed. The results are in.
I've blogged about this at length on here - Rupp never went for it. His only half-marathons were sit-and-kicks or marathon tuneups.
Even his sub 60 was a jetlagged tuneup.
His 2020 time trial was a legit effort, but he no longer has the legspeed to break the American record.
Now with that said, Ryan Hall's American record was also sort of a jetlagged tuneup. Not saying Rupp was better. But Rupp HAD a window where he had the footspeed (and the supershoes) to break the American record but he never went for it.
Wasn't Rupp's sub-60:00 on a non record eligible course? I think I remember it being point to point or downhill or both?
Right now? I think he would run right around 60:30 due to lack of specificity training. He should be able to take down Hall's AR with some specific training. I am not so sure he can get down to low 58s or sub 58. The E. Africans do dedicate a fair number of runners to doing just 1/2s because the money is good and they can run a lot of races. So, they do a ton of 1/2 specific training and are ready to run very fast whenever they race.
I agree that if GF goes all in on the half, the AR is his for the taking, but as for racing this weekend, I'd put Fisher at 61-low, Mantz--a better racer the longer the distance--at 60:30, the Norwegian & Chep around 59-mid. Barega? Who knows? Kiplimo smokes them all.
Ridiculous comment tbh. Rupp ran some HMs during Marathon training and well past his peak age. Never attempted one during his peak 10,000m shape, he absolutely could have broken the AR in the Half if he cared, but its a niche event.
And Fisher would break 60 no doubt and would go sub 59 with some specific training. The HM American record is incredibly weak, especially in the age of road super shoes. Almost 2.5 minutes behind the WR.
Agree 100 percent. He could go sub 59 for sure probably 58 flat with the big boys that go 57:30 to 57:40 pace. maybe even hang with them. If and that’s a big if, he will be our next world class level marathoner that could battle with the top marathoners from Kenya Ethiopia. I say if he attempts it, by 2027 he will run sub 2:03 for the marathon sub 58 for the half. If he goes u in distance which may not happen at least not for 4 or 5 years
Agree 100 percent. He could go sub 59 for sure probably 58 flat with the big boys that go 57:30 to 57:40 pace. maybe even hang with them. If and that’s a big if, he will be our next world class level marathoner that could battle with the top marathoners from Kenya Ethiopia. I say if he attempts it, by 2027 he will run sub 2:03 for the marathon sub 58 for the half. If he goes u in distance which may not happen at least not for 4 or 5 years
This is even worse than the many fans who believe Rupp could get every AR with the possible exception of the 100 if he wanted to. You suggest he doesn't want to? Does he prefer the record books don't mention him at all? Giving someone credit for something he's never done and never will do. Happens all the time with Rupp, but....
Now, you have the latest fan favorite. I guess Hocker's career is done. Wasn't he the one every Nike fan was drooling over? What about his sidekick? Forgotten as well, eh? So you have this guy who has never finished a race longer than 10k and he theoretically is one of the best in the world at the events in question. He hasn't run 58 nor 2:03; he hasn't done anything close to that. But someone completly devoid of East African genetics is allegedly going to be in the top-10 in the world. At distances he's never finished.
Rupp was in 10,000AR shape and was going to Australia but that trip was cancelled. He instead raced the NY Half - on the old course, the pt 2 pt aided fast course on a perfect day. He didn’t break 60:30. Granted he fell but had he not he still would have not broken 60 and he got his azz handed to him WHILE in top 10,000 shape.
So his only in shape attempt, by your admission, is a race in which he fell.
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