He would basically have to improve more in the 1500m over the next 4 years than he did over the previous 4.... Now we can argue the last 2 years have been tough for time trials with the championships. Maybe he is about to drop a 3:27 or 12:40...
12:35 is fast . Cheptegi was in that shape for like a month and looks to be a 12:50/26:40 guy the rest of the time.. Maybe JI has a month like that and runs 3:26/7:18/12:30.
7:18 would be equivalent to back to back 3:57s.
Sure. But is running 58.5 for 3k noticeably harder than running 60.5 for 5k or 55s for the 1500m? We are talking elite performances in either case. If you are running 3:45/12:35, I expect you will be right there just like komen was. I would say any of these records are going to be easy to break. You are talking about JI running like .5s/lap faster over the 1500m and about 1s/lap in the 3k/5k. Those are some big improvements.
Sure. But is running 58.5 for 3k noticeably harder than running 60.5 for 5k or 55s for the 1500m? We are talking elite performances in either case. If you are running 3:45/12:35, I expect you will be right there just like komen was. I would say any of these records are going to be easy to break. You are talking about JI running like .5s/lap faster over the 1500m and about 1s/lap in the 3k/5k. Those are some big improvements.
Agreed basically, 7:18.x would be no better than the 3:25 1500 some are suggesting. 7:20.67 is incredible but it’s still “overrated” by many track fans. It might be worth 3:26.xx and ~12:37 but it’s not superior to the other WRs. Much of its “untouchability” comes from the fact that there just haven’t been many attempts on it by the greatest athletes. El G’s one crack at it (7:23.9 #2 AT) was pretty badly mis-paced or he would have run 7:21ish. Like THOUGHTSLEADER said, if Getnet Wale can run 7:24.9i because Girma miscounted laps, then guys like Ingebrigtsen/El Guerrouj/Bekele/Farah/2020 Cheptegei can or could have run 7:20-7:23.0 with a few deliberate attempts.
One of those records will go down this year, to an African nobody has mentioned yet.
The suspense is killing me!!??
Did anyone notice that Jakob was the only one wearing an ice vest when they walked out for the 5000mF? Seemingly little things like this make me think he is ahead of everyone in his thinking.
Eh? Every single runner was wearing an ice vest as they walked through the tunnel.
An even-paced 12:35 would see Ingebrigtsen at 7:33 at 3,000m and then clip off five more 60-second laps without stopping. When is that going to happen?
Did anyone notice that Jakob was the only one wearing an ice vest when they walked out for the 5000mF? Seemingly little things like this make me think he is ahead of everyone in his thinking.
Eh? Every single runner was wearing an ice vest as they walked through the tunnel.
An other thing that stands out to me is an interview I heard with someone, maybe it was Hoare(?), that said he didn't do double sessions as he always ended up forgetting to do the second session. Such a lack of dedication is simply mind blowing.
That was Kerr
Thx for the correct name. Blows my mind. Hope it was a different reason in reality.
Sure. But is running 58.5 for 3k noticeably harder than running 60.5 for 5k or 55s for the 1500m? We are talking elite performances in either case. If you are running 3:45/12:35, I expect you will be right there just like komen was. I would say any of these records are going to be easy to break. You are talking about JI running like .5s/lap faster over the 1500m and about 1s/lap in the 3k/5k. Those are some big improvements.
Agreed basically, 7:18.x would be no better than the 3:25 1500 some are suggesting. 7:20.67 is incredible but it’s still “overrated” by many track fans. It might be worth 3:26.xx and ~12:37 but it’s not superior to the other WRs. Much of its “untouchability” comes from the fact that there just haven’t been many attempts on it by the greatest athletes. El G’s one crack at it (7:23.9 #2 AT) was pretty badly mis-paced or he would have run 7:21ish. Like THOUGHTSLEADER said, if Getnet Wale can run 7:24.9i because Girma miscounted laps, then guys like Ingebrigtsen/El Guerrouj/Bekele/Farah/2020 Cheptegei can or could have run 7:20-7:23.0 with a few deliberate attempts.
7:23.09, not 7:23.9 - big difference.
12:37 definitely is superiour to 7:20.67.
JI should be capable to break Komen's record within the next two years if he stays healthy and focused.
most likely not this year, but he is alot closer now than Cheptegei was before 2020. He also is not the type who does even pace through the race, rather 3000m in 7.35-6 and the last 2 sub 5
I think you'll get some very strong arguments against this. 7:20 has stood for a very long time, and I think 7:23 is the closest other mark? 12:37 has been beaten! But I still think 12:35 is not 7:20.
At the risk of giving a non-answer, it's possible Jakob does it but also very possible that he won't. He has run some blazing times for someone so young, but he plateaued a bit this year. He might have a lot more in the tank, but his current PRs in both the 1500 and 5000 are pretty far off the WRs. Maybe he will have a sudden burst of improvement next year or the following, or maybe he can just keep whittling his PRs down over the next few years. I thought this year he might be popping off 3:27 and 3:26 left and right, El G/Lagat style, but that didn't happen. Maybe he's already starting to focus more on the 5k, and if that's the case, he has a decent chance. But it's not like there have been a bunch of sub 12:40s over the years. No one was sniffing Bekele and Geb's times for quite a while.
I think you'll get some very strong arguments against this. 7:20 has stood for a very long time, and I think 7:23 is the closest other mark? 12:37 has been beaten! But I still think 12:35 is not 7:20.
I strongly disagree.
47.99 in the womens 400 and 1:53.43 in the womens 800 stood just for two respectively three years as WRs. But maybe you agree those marks are very strong?
46.78 in the mens 400mH stood for 29 years as WR. But it always was clear it's one of the weakest mens running records. Now it's beaten several times. Gebrselassie, Bekele, Cheptegei all are/were much stronger in the 5000 than in the 3000, El Guerrouj was much stronger in the 1500. In his one serious attempt on the record, El Guerrouj came 2.42s close to the record with far from perfect splits.
7:20.67 is worth something like 12:40 at best and maybe 3:27 or slightly under in the 1500.
At the risk of giving a non-answer, it's possible Jakob does it but also very possible that he won't. He has run some blazing times for someone so young, but he plateaued a bit this year. He might have a lot more in the tank, but his current PRs in both the 1500 and 5000 are pretty far off the WRs. Maybe he will have a sudden burst of improvement next year or the following, or maybe he can just keep whittling his PRs down over the next few years. I thought this year he might be popping off 3:27 and 3:26 left and right, El G/Lagat style, but that didn't happen. Maybe he's already starting to focus more on the 5k, and if that's the case, he has a decent chance. But it's not like there have been a bunch of sub 12:40s over the years. No one was sniffing Bekele and Geb's times for quite a while.
Nobody is really sniffing 12:35 either. We had a one off race We are lucky to see 1 race where people are within 1s/lap of that.
I don't if JI will ever threaten a WR. But if your a 3:28 guy who can run close to 12:35, you are going to be threatening to run 7:20. If you end up at 7:18 or 7:22 is going to depend on hitting that right race. Now if you are say a 3:33/12:35 guy, you might not be fast enough.
This interview is great, and it touches on many interesting things. (ie The 5000m is The Main Thing??)
I'm a huge fan for several reasons, but, as this interview demonstrates, Jakob is always very generous with his time/energy/openness for such interviews (I hate to do this - but what a contrast from Rupp!), and at 21, he is such an astute student of the sport.