Despite being the OG winner in the 1500, I don't think a sit and kick race favors him. We're not talking about El G here. He doesn't have the same devastating kick. On the flip side, Jakob is a smart racer and I don't think he will let the pace go slow until the final lap. I could see him taking control with 1600 or so to go IF it remains slow up to that point.
El G didn't have a blazing kick either. He won because he could run 3:28 practically on command. The times he let races come to a kick, he usually got beat in the final 100.
In my mind, outkicking Bekele in the OG final qualifies as a blazing kick. I don't see Jakob doing the same.
This seems to be a debate alot of people have. I just spoke to El G and his coach seperately and asked them the same questions. Hicham said 49-50 seconds for 400m and 1:45 for 800m. I then asked his coach the same question...
Having seen the video of the Final 5000m WC 2003, I say Jacob should make a gap of at least 6 meters between him and his follower starting the last 400m. That's if he adopt the tactic of leading from 600 / 800 meters.
It is none of the top guys best interest to have a slow race. Crap shoot if it goes slow. Look to heat one of the 5k Chep almost didn’t make it due to leaving it to a kick. Sure he can kick well in a 10k, 5k is different.
12:55 to 13:00 range is my guess on the winning time. 2:53 last K
It's going to be super hot. Everyone assumes it's never in Cheptegei's interest for a slow race...but it is as long as he and the others push the final 1600 or 1200 and separate the men from the boys. The fact is Cheptegei can flat-out finish and he is tactically strong. So is Barega. Kejelcha can close too, but he often mistimes it and has nothing the last 100. Fisher can, but a complete sit-and-kick race (13:45+) brings him back to the pack. Mo Ahmed is a quality closer as well. I'm not saying it's going to be a walk, but a 13:05-13:15 race seems likely given the heat. 13:15-13:25 wouldn't shock me either. Jakob is going to try to have the lead at 300 to go if not earlier. He is not confident he can blow past Barega, Kimeli, Krop, Cheptegei, Ahmed etc. if they get the jump on him.
Also funny how Krop gets no love. He ran 12:46 in Rome and yeah he got beat by Kimeli, but he also made the big move and it wasn't like he fell apart. Then, he looked awesome yesterday. It might be his time.
Where is this coming from? Ingebrigtsen can close just as well as the rest of these guys.
Krop should be a factor in the final, but he didn’t look as easy in the heats as some others, at least not to me.
El G didn't have a blazing kick either. He won because he could run 3:28 practically on command. The times he let races come to a kick, he usually got beat in the final 100.
In my mind, outkicking Bekele in the OG final qualifies as a blazing kick. I don't see Jakob doing the same.
El G closed in 52-high to win that race in 13:14. Pretty sure that is within Ingebrigtsen’s wheelhouse.
This field is stacked with talent and many guys are capable of winning. Krop is in fine shape while Kimeli is the fastest this year. Ingebrigtsen has a point to prove and Fisher feels he can medal with the crowd behind him. Edris is far from his best but you can never count the defending champion. Kejelcha and Barega know this is the only chance they have to get on the podium. Ahmed has medalled before and a medal of any colour will be his goal. Cheptegei wants that double so bad in order to sit on the same table with the likes of Farah and Bekele. Expect some team tactics between the Ugandans, Kenyans and the Ethiopians as the rest of the field pay attention. At the end of the day, the one likely to win will be the one who either wants it so bad, feels good on the day or calculates the race very well. Personally, I'll be surprised if Cheptegei doesn't win this. He's the man to beat.
Having seen the video of the Final 5000m WC 2003, I say Jacob should make a gap of at least 6 meters between him and his follower starting the last 400m. That's if he adopt the tactic of leading from 600 / 800 meters.
Jakko's not gonna start off with the pack. He'll run even-ish splits and play catch up when the time's right. Given that, someone might pull at John Ngugi and throw in a 4:00-4:01 in the middle of the race, a gap so formidable that Jakko will never bridge. Someone astute will follow the hard pace, but not go with it, saving something for their final strike. Jakko may catch that pack, but he's not gonna pass it.
Cheptegei is hungry for the double, he could be willing to drive hard the last mile and still kick like a scalded banshee. Or something like that.
BUT! I'm going out on a limb. I say Grant Fisher is capable of winning the gold medal. He kicks well off a fast pace. Grant is guy who can artfully turn up the tempo over the last several laps; he did it indoors over his 5K AR, outdoors running 26:33 outkicking Ahmed, and notably in the trials. He grabs the bull by the horns, and either wins or hits the podium. Does he BELIEVE? I'm saying yes.
Sure, Jakob could win, but this title is not "his for the taking" by any measure.
BUT! I'm going out on a limb. I say Grant Fisher is capable of winning the gold medal. He kicks well off a fast pace. Grant is guy who can artfully turn up the tempo over the last several laps; he did it indoors over his 5K AR, outdoors running 26:33 outkicking Ahmed, and notably in the trials. He grabs the bull by the horns, and either wins or hits the podium. Does he BELIEVE? I'm saying yes.
Sure, Jakob could win, but this title is not "his for the taking" by any measure.
As long as he doesn't remain glued to the rail, boxed in as usual...
Where is this coming from? Ingebrigtsen can close just as well as the rest of these guys.
Krop should be a factor in the final, but he didn’t look as easy in the heats as some others, at least not to me.
Maybe he can, but his racing history indicates he likes to seize the lead in a tactical race. In 2019 Worlds he did it, and I think he believes in himself and doesn't want to play games with a kick.
Not sure why you say that about Krop. He was cruising like everyone else and well clear. He started looking around and celebrating 50 meters from the line. Ebenyo and Ahmed had a fun kick-off and were laughing at each other (a la Bolt and De Grasse). There's really not much to take from that heat at all to me besides Grjalva looking super-fit, Edris looking like a non-factor, and Marc Scott probably the same (unless he * really * knew the dynamics). Yes, Jakob had some fun with it but any of the top 6 could have.
Where is this coming from? Ingebrigtsen can close just as well as the rest of these guys.
Krop should be a factor in the final, but he didn’t look as easy in the heats as some others, at least not to me.
Maybe he can, but his racing history indicates he likes to seize the lead in a tactical race. In 2019 Worlds he did it, and I think he believes in himself and doesn't want to play games with a kick.
Not sure why you say that about Krop. He was cruising like everyone else and well clear. He started looking around and celebrating 50 meters from the line. Ebenyo and Ahmed had a fun kick-off and were laughing at each other (a la Bolt and De Grasse). There's really not much to take from that heat at all to me besides Grjalva looking super-fit, Edris looking like a non-factor, and Marc Scott probably the same (unless he * really * knew the dynamics). Yes, Jakob had some fun with it but any of the top 6 could have.
The only way Jakob loses is if he completely screws up the tactics. He is actually a better 5,000m runner than a 1500m runner. This should be an easy win for him. I believe he will break the 5k world record one day.
But if he insists on running the 1st mile in last place again, he's digging himself a hole and giving others a chance.
Would love to see Jakob win as he is so goofy and fun, but this race is Cheptegei's to lose. He's the goat and the greatest male track distance runner of his time, perhaps all time. He also has a way about him that you could only be happy for the guy.
Despite his antics Jakob was breathing hard at the finish, he will be doing well to medal in this assassins den of a final.. he could get taken to Chinatown. Can't wait!
I can tell by the gist of your post O.P. you want J.I. to win. Your analysis is clouded by your personal preference for a J.I. victory. Smart money O.P. tells us: Bet the Field. J.I. is unlikely to win.
You gave me the idea, if others play tactical until the last 300m, this will force him to play the pacer in the last 2000m and we know he is not that great in that.
Wait....really? How do we know this?
(Even in that semi, what do you suppose his last 2k was?)
I see one of two scenarios here; either Kiplimo takes it out hard for Cheptigai or it goes out slow again with no one wwilling to to the work - if this is the case, which is likely, im predicting Fisher then takes it to a grind with 5-6 laps to go like he did in the trials to try to drop the majority of the contenders to improve his chances of a medal