Hot take: JAKOB INGEBRIGTSEN is going to win the 5k EASILY

He looked incredibly relaxed in the prelim and gently eased his way to a 13:13 5k. I agree that he will win, but I don’t think it’ll be that easy as I expect Cheptegei to make it very interesting over the final 400.

Jakob, Cheptegei, Fisher. Ethiopia gets left off the medal stand again.

Why do you assume that?

good picks but yomif is due for a medal don’t count him out.

I am curious to see how the race plays outs, especially with 90 degree temps. Jakob knows he doesn't have the last 150-200 gear shift in a tactical race, I can see him trying to turn the screws over the last mile if the pace lags.

Oscar Chelimo with a late kick to make the final has some interesting implications. Does he set the pace early for Cheptegei, like the plan was in the Tokyo 10,000 last year?

My guess after now having seen the 10,000/1,500 + 5,000 heats is...

1) Cheptegei

2) Jakob

3) Barega

4) Fisher

5) Ahmed

6) Kejelcha

You gave me the idea, if others play tactical until the last 300m, this will force him to play the pacer in the last 2000m and we know he is not that great in that.

Most guys in that 1500m final had better speed than Jakob, just like Wightman who is a 1:44 guy, Jakob has no shot at outkicking someone with this ability, that’s why he decided to set a fast pace. No one in that 5000m race is even close to 1:44 ability, so Jakob has absolutely no reason to lead until the last 200m.

Moreover, Jakob led that 1500m final, that’s why he didn’t have anything left in the homestretch, as opposite to Tokyo, when he followed Timothy the whole race and then easily out kicked him, Jake taught him a good lesson and he won’t lead before the homestretch in the 5k.

The weather is why I think the pace will not be extremely quick, also the fact that everyone is really fast in this final so no one will want to lead, except if someone like Oscar Chelimo sacrifices himself for his countryman, but then Jakob can still kick off a fast pace like we saw in Florence.

Biggest joke of the year

Or

Biggest joke of the championship

😂😂😂😂😂

I don't know if I fully agree with this. Shifting gears over the last 200 is different than even 800/1,500 speed. Bekele could not have beaten Jakob over 8/15, but he could shift gears over the final lap to consistently run 52/53 even in faster races.

Cheptegei showed me something in that 10,000 that I didnt know he had, with his 53.4 close in a 4:00 last mile. Barega also has a blistering change of pace on the last lap that I don't think Jakob can match in a slower race.

And in Florence Jakob only ran a 56.1 final lap, more indicative of his superior aerobic ability rather than footspeed.

I don't think Jakob will win, but I am almost sure that it won't be due to a lack of speed.

Fair enough, but the exemple of Florence was more about the hypothesis of a fast race, I don’t think anyone is closing in 52 in a 12:48 race.

You should also note that Jakob has already closed in 53ish in a 13:02 race (his pr and national record at the time) at the London diamond league with a 4:02/3 last mile when he was only 18, and he has improved a lot since then.

I guess we’ll see what happens, his best chance may be a fast race then, but he won’t make it fast by himself, no chance.

I can't pick a winner of this one. Do Uganda have a sacrificial lamb they'll use to push the pace? If so, that would play to Jakob's strengths. If it comes to a kick, it's a roll of the dice. That first heat and the 10,000 showed that there's a bunch of guys who are very evenly matched. Even Fisher can't be ruled out for the gold with that close he had in the 10k. I wouldn't be confident placing any money on this one.

Despite being the OG winner in the 1500, I don't think a sit and kick race favors him. We're not talking about El G here. He doesn't have the same devastating kick. On the flip side, Jakob is a smart racer and I don't think he will let the pace go slow until the final lap. I could see him taking control with 1600 or so to go IF it remains slow up to that point.

El G didn't have a blazing kick either. He won because he could run 3:28 practically on command. The times he let races come to a kick, he usually got beat in the final 100. All the times he won, he burned everyone else to the ground the whole race. And I see Jakob as a very similar athlete. His best chances of 1500 titles are fast even races, imo.

I agree with the OP that he absolutely should be among the favorites to win the 5000. He looked entirely too easy yesterday in that heat, lollygagging around the back and then just easily moving up past everyone and then messing around with the crowd on the final straight.

he might win,but it wont be easy.

It is none of the top guys best interest to have a slow race. Crap shoot if it goes slow. Look to heat one of the 5k Chep almost didn’t make it due to leaving it to a kick. Sure he can kick well in a 10k, 5k is different.

12:55 to 13:00 range is my guess on the winning time. 2:53 last K

12:55 with 2:53 final km would be wild, 80% of a world record race followed by a painful jog and sprint finish.

So how many times El G. got beaten? I know of only two serious cases:

- Final 1500m 2000 (here everything played in the last 5 meters)

- Final 5000m Worlds 2003 (here everything played in the last 2 meters)

Also a good runner with a good kick is likely to get out kicked if he lead from 600 meters, unless your name is Juan Torena or Rudisha.

El G. didn't let races to the last 200m to maximize his chances of win, if not we didn't see his actual potential in the 800m.

Last km at 14:25 minute pace? More likely we'll see a 2:30 last km

It's going to be super hot. Everyone assumes it's never in Cheptegei's interest for a slow race...but it is as long as he and the others push the final 1600 or 1200 and separate the men from the boys. The fact is Cheptegei can flat-out finish and he is tactically strong. So is Barega. Kejelcha can close too, but he often mistimes it and has nothing the last 100. Fisher can, but a complete sit-and-kick race (13:45+) brings him back to the pack. Mo Ahmed is a quality closer as well. I'm not saying it's going to be a walk, but a 13:05-13:15 race seems likely given the heat. 13:15-13:25 wouldn't shock me either. Jakob is going to try to have the lead at 300 to go if not earlier. He is not confident he can blow past Barega, Kimeli, Krop, Cheptegei, Ahmed etc. if they get the jump on him.

Also funny how Krop gets no love. He ran 12:46 in Rome and yeah he got beat by Kimeli, but he also made the big move and it wasn't like he fell apart. Then, he looked awesome yesterday. It might be his time.