His point, if I may, is that it isn't a market driven price decline. At least not in large part. It was priced incorrectly to begin with, even in an inflated market, so Jamin is being deceptive with using this as an example of the broader market trends.
This is exactly right. My wife’s best friend bought a house in Tacoma three years ago for $350k. She’s moving for work and put the house on the market for $550k and wanted cash and no inspection. The house sat for a month, zero offers. Dropped the price to $500k, it got snapped up in a week following inspection. So the house “only” appreciated ~43% in 3 years, even though it stayed on the market longer than expected and required a price drop to move. Hardly a crash.
I'm ready to buy a house this Summer. I will be making lowball offers. Redfin agents will say "Here comes Dr. Lowball again .." when my car pulls up to open houses.
Looked it up. It looks like it sold for $567,500 in 2009 and it is a short walk to the University of Washington. So maybe it’s only really worth $900 K today but the realtor is being greedy? what’s your point?
His point, if I may, is that it isn't a market driven price decline. At least not in large part. It was priced incorrectly to begin with, even in an inflated market, so Jamin is being deceptive with using this as an example of the broader market trends.
What data would convince you?
Just go to Redfin and look at houses Sold in Past 7 Days. Houses that a few months ago would've been bid up in price are selling at or below their list price. It's hard to find any going above asking price.
Here are some recent sales of nicer (by Seattle standards) houses:
The name of the "whatever" you read or watched about why buying a home is a surefire way to help you attract a mate. You need a yuge price drop to secure your surefire.
In order to see a crash in the housing market (40% drop in prices would be a crash), supply has to very quickly outstrip demand. On the supply side in the US, housing starts have recovered after going off a cliff at the outset of the pandemic, but are nowhere near the kind of massive build up that took place before the 2008 crash. Also, mortgage loans, while starting to slide back to old bad habits like ARMs, have by and large been pretty conservative due to post 2008 lending standards. So, mortgage defaults are at pretty good levels considering all the turbulence in the economy due to COVID, inflation, etc. Thus, we are not going to see a ton of houses come on the market due to overbuilding and a waive of foreclosures. As much as inflation stings, the job numbers in the US are very good.
All that is happening right now is that the red hot markets have maxed out and interest rates are pulling prices back. Those of us who bought homes back in the olden days remember that it was normal to list a house and expect to have it on the market for a month or two before taking an offer that was 10-20% below list. With so many homebuyers who have been pushed to the sidelines in a market where you have to buy with cash and bid over list, there is not going to be a huge drop in prices as bargain hunters will flock to a market with lower prices.
Housing starts in the US slumped 8.1 percent to an annualized rate of 1.439 million in September 2022, down from a revised 1.566 million in the previous month and well below market consensus of 1.475 million. The US housing m...
How could there be that big of decline? So if you bought a house for $1M in 2022 it will only sell for 600 K in 2023?
Because that house was only 600k in 2020. It is very unlikely to happen on a national scale but local markets? Sure. Higher mortgage rates ( you can only buy 400k instead of 500k for the same payment) should also damp prices.
That being said there are hundreds of people making predictions. Pretty easy to find 1 or 2 that made 2 right calls. Were they lucky or geniuses?
Nothing better than watching Zestimate lovers lose everything.
NOTHING is better than that? What a weird thing to think. No food? Not sex? Not a good movie or music? That MIGHT be the weirdest thing I've heard that didn't come from Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Back in the world of reality, if the housing market drops a lot, home owners haven't "lost everything."
I own a home. If the price of it drops significantly, so does the price of most other houses that I might want to buy instead. Means nothing to me.
His point, if I may, is that it isn't a market driven price decline. At least not in large part. It was priced incorrectly to begin with, even in an inflated market, so Jamin is being deceptive with using this as an example of the broader market trends.
What data would convince you?
Just go to Redfin and look at houses Sold in Past 7 Days. Houses that a few months ago would've been bid up in price are selling at or below their list price. It's hard to find any going above asking price.
Here are some recent sales of nicer (by Seattle standards) houses:
sold below asking is supposed to be what happens in a normal market.
1) first one realtor priced it too high. market responded. needed some price cuts to the asking price to find a willing buyer. once they got it down to 1.7M it sold. 4008 NE 40th sold for $649,500 in 2010 and ultimately sold for $1.75M. Looks like it was a good decision for buyer to get it in 2010 and sell it in 2022. Jamin, where's the decline? 2) sold at asking. good realtor. realtor had his head on straight.....5223 Ivanhoe sold for 799K in 2017 and just sold for $1.2M. Jamin, where's the decline?
Doesn't look like a crash to me. Where is the 40% decline or even any decline at all?
Jamin, Do you have any examples of anyone who bought one of these places in 2020-2022 and sold it at a lower price than what it was purchased for in mid to late 2022? So far the facts show no crash and Jamin no house.
I sure hope you’re right sometime in the next decade, I’m trying to time a beach house purchase as best as I can
I hope so too because prices are generally insane and seriously screwing up cost of living.
If they don't drop, at least use all those property taxes for something useful for once
You and I are in agreement. Rare, but true here. So, a 40% drop in housing prices would be fine by me. Something like that would mean we are likely in a recession, so the price of fuel will go down also...something that will also help people. Not hoping for a recession, just looking at the silver lining.
I personally could not care about the price of my house. I will eventually sell it and buy another place in another state. BUT, I do care about the ability of younger people to be able to buy a place. Homeownership is not for everyone, but it IS for a lot of people, and I like to see people be able to afford one if they want.
His point, if I may, is that it isn't a market driven price decline. At least not in large part. It was priced incorrectly to begin with, even in an inflated market, so Jamin is being deceptive with using this as an example of the broader market trends.
Yes, in my view, some realtors have yet to realize it is no longer a sellers market. Homes are no longer selling like hot cakes...And some realtors will be out of a job soon due to transaction volume being extremely low
I am seeing this already. WE do income and employment verification and so many files are being adversed for unable to buy/purchase, or they are going with another lender.
It's a good job short-term actually, super-easy and probably the easiest job I've had.
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