Josh Kerr Race Tonight (7/6)

1:46.6 for the win beats Jakob's 1:47.2 for fourth at that random meet in Norway.

Teare had covid during Indoor USAs, but otherwise I largely agree with you.

Does anyone know Kerr's splits? Last year he intentionally ran a massive negative split in an 1:46 800m time trial (going 56-50), so if he did something similar at this meet it would indicate that he is close to his 3:29 form.

He ran 3:48 indoors. He must be in 3:29-30 shape by now.

He's raced at least seven times this year, including this 800m.

worldathletics.org

Josh KERR | Profile | World Athletics

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Scratch that, at least six times, as the link includes the same race for both 1500m and mile last winter.

Lolwut. If he is in 3:29-30 shape, I'm not sure why he got outkicked convincingly by Jake Wightman (in 3:32 shape), Neil Gourley (in 3:34 shape but a good finisher), and barely inched out Jake Hayward (in 3:33 shape) at British Nationals. Fitness isn't some static measure that improves at your own whim. His outdoor season indicates he's taken a step back, but he is very talented so maybe he puts it back together by Worlds. 1:46.6 doesn't really tell us much unless as a previous poster suggest he did it with some crazy splits.

The plan for them was to race USA indoors but skip World indoors even if they qualified for the team.

To say they would've had World Indoor medals seems crazy to me. In the 3,000, let's just go ahead and say 1-5% chance because the top 2 are way better and Marc Scott is ahead of them at this stage in the 3,000.

In the 1,500, I'd say the top 2 are again above and beyond and they ran 3:32. Do we think they're beating Abel Kipsang (even in a not-great race for him it was a 3:33), Olli Hoare and more?

Most likely, they would've gone to World Indoors and gotten beat pretty convincingly, though I would've liked to have seen it of course.

It's solid for Kerr. When he was rounding into his peak last year, he ran 1:45 so he's a little behind where he was. I'd feel better about Kerr's chances if I'd seen some strong closes from him this year but those have been absent. Does anyone know what he closed this 800 in? Any chance it was a strong negative split?

You're remembering charitably. He ran 1:45.7 last year in early May well ahead of schedule from this one. He also had the 3:31.5 where he ran the last 600 alone at Stumptown in early June. That was paired with a much better effort at British Champs (edging out Wightman, beating Hayward et al by a lot) and the negative split 800 time trial.

We haven't really seen it from Kerr this outdoor season. You can't count him out based on his talent and pedigree, though.

"We haven't really seen it from Kerr this outdoor season. You can't count him out based on his talent and pedigree, though."

Exactly what I'm rolling with for Kerr and others. A lot of favorites (across all events) haven't put down a standout performance this outdoor season, but Worlds is relatively early this year.

Side note - LRC should really make the grey space a few pixels wider. I hate that the R in your name hangs over. Always bothered me

Yes it is annoying on the hanging down R. On the Kerr front, yes I guess the question is is he racing sub-par due to lower fitness or are they just heavy in training with all the Championships on the calendar. We'll find out soon because I think Kerr will have to be "on" to get to the Final. I don't see him as such a talented racer that in B- shape, he can make it all the way.

He and Kidder went through in 50.high / 51.low. Isaiah Harris paced through ~600m.

Less than ideal. Probably indicates 1:46 is pretty much where he's at, and he could maybe only chop a little bit off with a slower first lap.

I think Kerr thought he was a step above the rest of the brits and trained through the trials, thinking he could run away from 600 out. He was in for a rude awakening when he was getting passed.

I’m becoming a little confused with what kind of runner Kerr is. His over and under distance PRs don’t seem that impressive for someone who closed to nab a medal in the fastest Olympic final in history. If he’s been training through most races this season then maybe he can show up big in Eugene but, on current form, I think guys like Hoare are much better poised for his medal/final spot.

Peak shape Kerr aka when he ran 3:29 probably could have run 1:44.xx and 13:1x.xx

Decently balanced between speed and endurance but would not medal in 800 or 5k similar to a Centrowitz ,Morceli, Willis.

A guy like Hoare can run 13:0x.xx in the 5k but only 1:45

Right now Jakob is 12:4x.xx and 1:46, his 800 is a bit worse but 5k is much better hence the better mile/1500

He's raced 6 times outdoor this year, and has Worlds, Commonwealth Games, and European Championships (if he still plans to race there) over the next 6 weeks. That's 9 races in itself, the same as he ran in the whole of 2021.

He's just on a different schedule to the US athletes who only have the World Champs to aim for.