Except for his 1:24 last 600 recently, or his 53/25 at the Trials last year.
His kick at last year’s trials was off of 13:40 pace and he didn’t gain ground on Fisher over the last 400m.
53/25 was in the 10k. Note that fisher has run 26:30/12:53. And he absolutely gained ground on fisher in Eugene recently. Think what you want- arguing with your type of personality is a waste of time anyway.
My prediction for how the race plays out is this: any combination of Cheptegei/Kejelcha/Barega/Kimeli/Ahmed lead throughout the first 3k—not at 12:4x time trial type pace, but at 63-64/lap with a 61 surge or two to keep it from being a jogfest. 3k split will be 7:52-7:58. Then someone, most likely Aregawi, Kejelcha, Ahmed, Fisher or Cheptegei will make a serious push with 5 laps to go, running ~2:01 from 3k-3800 and dropping some of the field (Mr. Kincaid likely included). The pace may slow slightly in the next lap as the leader feels the need to regroup, and if it does, Ingebrigtsen will take the lead with 2 to run. In any case, it will be Ingebrigtsen breaking the tape with a ~54” last lap, ~4:58 last 2k and ~12:54 winning time.
The gun marks the start of the race. The bell marks the final lap.
I hope Woody * tries * everything within his power to be in contention at the bell (let's say within 5 meters of the lead pack). I'm extremely dubious of that, though. I was sort of struck by some of his post-race interviews after making the team. He admitted he rarely (never?) finishes the workouts that Grant does, and he seems very ease with this despite being healthy the last 2 years and in his absolute physical prime you would think.
He was like on raceday it doesn't matter...but then Grant easily dropped him and created a huge margin in the USAs 5,000 (despite Woody having a good deal left evidently), and psychologically in the Ten he thought he'd be better served by pacing Grant/Mo than trying to hang onto their pace. Let's not even go into the baffling decision for him to run the B heat 5,000 at BU this year. Overall, I'd just be worried about Woody folding up camp at the first sign of a sustained surge in the Worlds 5,000 and being content to outkick guys for 7th-10th in the last 400.
When I was running, they shot the gun for the final lap. I remember sparks from the gun hitting my leg when I passed. It has always been called the gun lap, they wimped it down by changing it to a tingly bell instead of the loud gun.
at least 12 men with prs under 12:55 in the field. his speed should get him there, but he has to focus on making the final before we can even talk about medals
My gut feeling is that he has less than a 1 in 10 chance if the pace is very slow, and the chance of the final being very slow is 1 in 10. So between a 0% and 1% chance of medaling. But I would love to see it!
It is not going to be superfast, but it's not going to be anything like USAs either. The pace is going to be faster and he is going to have to kick harder. I am not saying Woody's kick is trivial, because it isn't, but just about all of top athletes can close in 55 off of a slowest pace. The two problems I see for Woody is a relatively fast pace and there is a sub-60 in thrown in the middle or possibly or an all-out foot race to the finish line for the medals.
My gut feeling is that he has less than a 1 in 10 chance if the pace is very slow, and the chance of the final being very slow is 1 in 10. So between a 0% and 1% chance of medaling. But I would love to see it!
Woody needs to focus on getting out of the semi's and into the final. If he does that the rest is gravy.
Kincaid is one of the most overrated athletes of this era. All of you fools are impressed he noob kicked (after getting dropped) a 54 last lap. That's less than mediocre on the world stage, especially when the world record AVERAGES 60 per lap.
In 2012 Rupp finished the 5k in 52.54 at the Olympic trials, after a 10k and a 5k prelim.
Kincaid is decent enough to beat mediocre Americans to qualify for a team, and he may be able to sneak into the final but he will NEVER be close to a medal.
If it's dead slow right up until the bell, then yes, but it won't be.
Even the slow championship races wind up in the last mile, so that the medal contenders have basically run a 3:00-3:05 1200m (while battling for position) leading into the last lap.
To have any shot at a medal, Kincaid would need it to be dead slow the first 3k, and then no faster than 3:10 in the 1200m preceding the bell.