Rough Week: Grant Fisher Now Under 50-50 to Land a Medal?

Surprising! That being said in the 5,000 he’d be an underdog to beat Barega, Kejelcha, Aregawi, Krop, Kimeli, Jakob, Cheptegei or Mo Ahmed to me.

Exactly my thoughts too. You really think Fisher had a chance against the might of:

Barega

Cheptegei

Kandie

Kiplimo

Aregawi.. amongst other East African Big wigs over 10 K ?

You must be joking 😅😅😅😅

Well, Kandie is NOT on the team. The 3 Kenyans who are are plenty good, but 26:33 good and tactically proficient? Unclear. Kandie looked like he was toying with them spotting them 20 meters and then crushing them the last 250. I'd think if Kenya facilitated doubles Nicholas Kimeli would be a tougher challenger than them. He's plenty good at 10K.

Kiplimo we really had no idea what his form was before this race in Stockholm. He kept scratching races, and he's a guy who races fairly often so that was odd. Now we know he's ready to roll.

Barega and Cheptegei was going to be a tall order, but the Aregawi addition is a real killer. Pretty smart racer with huge natural ability. You could say the same about Worku, who is a really good closer from what I've seen in the mold of his training partner Muktar Edris. I think Fisher will need to drop him with 300 to go or earlier. So this is the best Ethiopian 10K team that you could really conceive of. Fisher will need to run really smart and well.

Rough Week? Surely he wants all his competition on the start line race fit.

The problem Fisher has is that all three Ethiopians and Cheptegei can run any pace that Fisher can manage, and they can close the final lap in 53-55. He can squeeze the pace from a mile out and they will just ride on the back of him and take him on the last 400. I've seen nothing to suggest Fisher can find that sort of closing pace - people were impressed that he closed a 13:03 5k with a 60 second final lap, Cheptegei ran 55 to close out his Olympic 5k in 12:58.

I'm more optimistic than most here.

I think he's still close to 30% chances on 5000, and 50% chances on the 10000.

I think this year is very positive for him, and mentally and physically he'll show up.

My personal bet is :

5th on 5000

3rd on 10000

I wouldn't put money on that bet though.

No, they were impressed that he ran 59-58-60 from 3 laps out.

True that, very impressive stuff.

Lol exactly. He ran a 60 after he already had the race won. Why do people keep harping about that? Could he have run a 55? Maybe not, but he didn't need to at USAs so we can't really draw any negative conclusions from that.

Correct. Fisher can run really fast from very far out in these races. The times he can hit are super-fast in the time trial setups with a negative split as the objective. The different sort of obstacle here if the weather is not crazy hot (like Tokyo was) might be it could be a fast, but not outrageously fast, race, but the fartlek-style running that Barega loves (and Cheptegei/Kiplimo handle well) could lead to some rhythm-breaking running. You can look up and think oh well they "only" ran 26:4x or 26:5x with a 55 second last lap. Well how many mid-race surges followed by dawdling laps were there and what was the last K? I'd love to see Fisher pass the test and be right there at 300 to go. We'll see!

The Bowerman TC seems to me to be very pragmatic. Josh Thompson was open that he was racing the guys with the standard at USAs and very aware that it didn't matter if some random collegiates/sub-elites beat him. Fisher knows his medal path and I don't think he's super-macho rooting for World Athletics to get Kandie and Lobato in the races, or Ethiopia to put in their most stacked teams. He just wants some hardware. There is nothing wrong with this either.

That he could only muster a 58 to close out a 28 minute race in which he was racing for a national title seems just as pertinent. Can I draw negative conclusions from that?

Very impressive but Cheptegei can go 59/58/56

He closed that race in 54. But don't let facts get in the way of your narratives.

I put the chance of this post being deleted within 8 hours at 50/50 - but it’s gotta be said that BTC should perform well at world’s since USADA will be on site to help them cover up any positive drug tests.

To be in the mix and discussed as a medal contender amongst perhaps the greatest grouping of athletes ever in theses two distances is amazing.

Grant Fisher - well done.

Rooting for you! - go USA!

Go Grant!

Grant didn’t have to push the last 100 m of the 5k at USA’s. He looked up at the big screen coming into the final straightaway and began backing off with 50 m to go. His last 20 m he coasted in.

Go Grant go!

I always wonder why people post easily falsifiable things like this...

he wasn't even the US champ, and you thought he had a 50% chance of medalling?

love the kid, and he has a chance, but 50% chance of a top 3 finish was way off even before the recent field changes