Regardless, I hope Holt gets a contract out of this. To my understanding Empire Elite attack Club isn’t sponsored by a shoe company so I guess their athletes have other jobs on the side or are supported by family.
2003 was the bottom. Webb went pro that year but was out of sorts going back to his high school coach.
Then he exploded in 2004, dominating the Trials. But they had to go to the semis to get a third qualifier as only 2 men in the final were able to get the A standard.
2005, Webb made that crazy move on the backstretch. Then faded.
2007, Webb set the mile AR and Lagat won the Gold. Manzano made his first team.
2008, Webb was fifth at the Trials and the US was getting deep.
2009, Bronze for Lagat
2011, Bronze for Centro
2012, Silver for Manzano,
2013, Silver for Centro
2016, Gold for Centro
At this point, the US would routinely have ten guys under 3:35 flat.
2021, young Hocker looked pretty good.
People don’t know how bad the US 1500 depth was in the 90s and early 2000s.
Great summary, but after 2016 the U.S. did not “routinely have ten guys under 3:35 flat.” I’m not sure if the U.S. has ever had ten guys under 3:35 flat in one season. Even if we combine seasons and just use lifetime PRs of active guys competing, the best I can think of is:
Centro
Manzano
Wheating
Lomong
Andrews
Blankenship
Heath
Rupp
Jager
Brown
Macnamara
Leer
And they definitely did not all do it in the same season and it definitely was not after 2016.
Eric Holt is hard to watch. He tries to force his way through every race. Relax a little. Would like to see him loosen up and have more confidence in letting the race develop.
I’m not sure if the U.S. has ever had ten guys under 3:35 flat in one season. .
The most the US had under 3:35 was in 2013, when 9 -- Manzano, Torrence, Centro, JMac, Heath, Bayer, Lomong, Symmonds & Leslie -- did it.
The most impressive year was probably 2010. Only 5 went under 3:35, but 4 of them -- Wheating, Lomong, Manzano, & Lagat -- went under 3:33! That is more than went under during the rest of the decade.
You are also right that there was a huge drop off after 2013. Only 10 men broke 3:35 for the rest of the decade, and in several years, nobody did. Then last year, 9 again did it -- Hocker, Engels, Alexander, Centro, Wynne, Kessler, Gregorek, Ciattei & Nuguse.
Um yes. Hocker may have been slightly better than Cooper is this year but Centro is done and Nuguse obviously has nothing to offer. Thompson and Gregorek are better
No Hocker got 6th and Teare has almost no chance of doing that. Thompson and Gregorek probably could not make the UK team. They are not good.
where did teare finish at pre with all of the worlds talent? even if josh i can run 3:27 kerr returns to form, hocker is out so i’d put the over under on teare at 6th place.
cooper is like 5-1 against cole in the mile/1500 in the past 2 years anyways
This is the worst team in a generation. Pathetic! Who are these clowns? I am shedding a Teare over how bad they are.
This type of race makes zero sense, there are guys who can run 3:35 or faster letting the race turn into a free for all over the last 400-600 meters after jogging for ~1000 meters. It lets guys who have no business winning in the hunt and whoever has the best leg speed at the end will win, but he is not necessarily the fastest over a "normal" 1500 meter race.
He clearly has the finishing speed to easily navigate rounds. He's fast enough to advance if one of his rounds goes fast.
In the final, if it goes slow, he's a medal threat with that speed. If it goes fast, he won't be leading so it will be a paced time trial for him. His PR in the mile is worth about a 3:33, so if he runs a PR type race, he should be 3:32 or better. That's approximately equivalent to Hocker's Olympic performance, so top 6 or so. Then there's the possibility that he has a legit breakthrough, which would put him in the medals in a fast race, and possibly 3:30.x time (or better).
He has home crowd advantage as well. I think he'll have a great championships.
Teare has obvious potential. He has a racer's mind.
Don't forget, in 2011 it was a slow nationals race and no one thought this Centro kid was much of a contender as national champ (except the Champ himself and of course his dad.) Bronze not too shabby.
How much does the # of guys under 3:35 really say about the quality of runner in that given year, though? Sometimes it's just one perfectly paced race in perfect conditions that creates a bunch of fast times that are never duplicated the rest of the year.
What I don't get is we're getting sub 4 kids in HS on the regular now but that's not translating on the world stage. Outside of Centro and import Bernard, we suck hard at 1500m in recent times. Alan Webb was so all over the place....
What I don't get is we're getting sub 4 kids in HS on the regular now but that's not translating on the world stage. Outside of Centro and import Bernard, we suck hard at 1500m in recent times. Alan Webb was so all over the place....
They could just be reaching much closer to the limits of their potential earlier. It’s not like before where high schoolers just struggled along with whatever PE teacher happened to end up as HS track coach. High schoolers are actively moving schools to get the best possible coach, and many coaches are training high schoolers as if they’re professionals.
I always like to think that most people do have some sort of limit to their potential that is, to some degree, genetically imposed. An excellent HS coach and proper training would just help them approach it earlier in their careers.
A 3:38 1500m runner in 2005 might’ve run 4:10 in HS, and then started developing very well in college. A 3:39 1500m runner in 2020 might just be developing much more in HS and run 3:59, but would still end up peaking at 3:38.
He clearly has the finishing speed to easily navigate rounds. He's fast enough to advance if one of his rounds goes fast.
In the final, if it goes slow, he's a medal threat with that speed. If it goes fast, he won't be leading so it will be a paced time trial for him. His PR in the mile is worth about a 3:33, so if he runs a PR type race, he should be 3:32 or better. That's approximately equivalent to Hocker's Olympic performance, so top 6 or so. Then there's the possibility that he has a legit breakthrough, which would put him in the medals in a fast race, and possibly 3:30.x time (or better).
He has home crowd advantage as well. I think he'll have a great championships.
Teare will do great at WCs to pick off a Brit or two and finish 6th or 7th. Likely 8th, considering the form the Kenyans, Brits, Hoare & JI are rounding into. Save the medal contention musing for 2024.
Teare will do great at WCs to pick off a Brit or two and finish 6th or 7th. Likely 8th, considering the form the Kenyans, Brits, Hoare & JI are rounding into. Save the medal contention musing for 2024.
I’d generally agree, but my quibble is the Brits were more impressive last year than this one. They have better pedigree, but their form is not really much different than his. He is a fitness tier below Tim, Kipsang, Jakob, Tefera and Hoare it seems however.
What I don't get is we're getting sub 4 kids in HS on the regular now but that's not translating on the world stage. Outside of Centro and import Bernard, we suck hard at 1500m in recent times. Alan Webb was so all over the place....
Don’t forget Olympic silver medalist Leo Manzano. Over the last three Olympics, USA is the only country to produce more than one medalist in the men’s 1500. Pretty good!
Hocker got 6th last year not bad…Our B level guys (Blankenship, Engels, Gregorek) over the years have made global finals. The pipeline is pretty good, Nuguse/Hocker’s rough Trials notwithstanding. I honestly believe Nuguse, Teare and Hocker will be battling for top 5 in DLs the next few years.
Amen. Manzano never got the respect he deserved. Maybe too many fans were blinded by Wheating's magic summer and the drama around Wheating's return to form to appreciate how really, really good Manzano was.
This is the worst team in a generation. Pathetic! Who are these clowns? I am shedding a Teare over how bad they are.
This type of race makes zero sense, there are guys who can run 3:35 or faster letting the race turn into a free for all over the last 400-600 meters after jogging for ~1000 meters
It was obvious to me when they all bunched up in the first 200 meters that every single one of then had a weak mentality.
Actually, they all appeared to me to be extremely stupid.
I like runners who go for it, put it all out there, and run the best race that they can.
Um yes. Hocker may have been slightly better than Cooper is this year but Centro is done and Nuguse obviously has nothing to offer. Thompson and Gregorek are better
No Hocker got 6th and Teare has almost no chance of doing that. Thompson and Gregorek probably could not make the UK team. They are not good.
I think last year’s team was stronger, but Teare has at least some chance of placing top-6, and the UK team was harder to make than the US team last year as well (they placed 3 in the top-10 in the Olympic final).