I was curious so I took a look at the top 15 finishers from 2021 Nats, and counted the returning runners (did the best I could, obviously COVID will mess some up). Feel free to correct anything wrong with your team.
1. PP: 5 returners, lose 5+6
2. MIT: 5 returners, lose 2+7
3. Williams: 6 returners, only lose Aidan Ryan
4. John Carroll: 4 returners, lose 2+6+7
5. UW-Whitewater: 4 returners, lose 1+5+7
6. CMS: 3 returners, lose 2+4+5+6+7
7. WashU: 4 returners, lose 2+4+5
8. Geneseo: 5 returners, lose 3+6
9. Fartburg: 1 returner, lose everyone but 4 (barring fifth years, looks like everyone's a senior)
10. UW- La Crosse: 7 returners
11. UChicago: 3 returners, lose 1+2+4+5
12. Carnegie Mellon: 5 returners, lose 1+6
13. Middlebury: 7 returners
14. RPI: 5 returners, lose 2+4
15. North Central: 5 returners, lose 1+7 (DNF)
Based on this I'll give my predictions for the top 10
1. MIT- The perfection that is MIT's pack running and their cake walk through regionals could be a big help.
2. PP- Hard to win coming in as the clear favorites. Threepeat would be sick though. Would love to see them prove me wrong.
3. William- Likely the best 1-2, but a young team and dare I say a history of choking might be hard to overcome.
4. UW La Crosse- Returning 7 from a team already in the top 10 is pretty huge. Could see them sneaking into top 3.
5. WashU- Always find a way to put it together at Nationals. Stiles is a stud and they put together some real impressive performances in track.
6. John Carroll- Losing Jamie Dailey will be huge, but they still have the clear favorite for the individual title. I see them dropping a bit from 4th last year, but nothing significant.
7. Geneseo- Underperformed a bit last year, and seemed to lack depth on the distance side. We'll have to see how much their stellar 1-2 can help out.
8. Carnegie Mellon- Another team that underperformed last year. Always seem to run better at UAAs than Nats, but with the joke that is the Mid-Atlantic Region they might just be fresh enough to figure something out.
9. CMS- While they did have extreme depth in track, they lose a lot from their 2021 squad that finished. I hope this isn't me underestimating the Cali boys like many did last year, but it will be hard to improve on last years placing.
10. Middlebury- Kind of seemed like last year was best case scenario. Returning everyone is big, just couldn't bring myself to put them ahead of any of the top 9. Definitely a team I'll be rooting for next year.
Hm: U Chicago, Whitewater, anyone but Fartburg.